Model error is one of the key factors restricting the accuracy of numerical weather prediction （NWP）. Considering the continuous evolution of the atmosphere, the observed data （ignoring the measurement error） can ...Model error is one of the key factors restricting the accuracy of numerical weather prediction （NWP）. Considering the continuous evolution of the atmosphere, the observed data （ignoring the measurement error） can be viewed as a series of solutions of an accurate model governing the actual atmosphere. Model error is represented as an unknown term in the accurate model, thus NWP can be considered as an inverse problem to uncover the unknown error term. The inverse problem models can absorb long periods of observed data to generate model error correction procedures. They thus resolve the deficiency and faultiness of the NWP schemes employing only the initial-time data. In this study we construct two inverse problem models to estimate and extrapolate the time-varying and spatial-varying model errors in both the historical and forecast periods by using recent observations and analogue phenomena of the atmosphere. Numerical experiment on Burgers＇ equation has illustrated the substantial forecast improvement using inverse problem algorithms. The proposed inverse problem methods of suppressing NWP errors will be useful in future high accuracy applications of NWP.展开更多
In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors （ACE） based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction （NWP）. The analysis shows that the ACE can eff...In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors （ACE） based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction （NWP）. The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model, Furthermore, in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historical analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for estimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly prediction experiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single analogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model.展开更多
Bubble size distribution is the basic apparent performance and obvious characteristics in the air dense medium fluidized bed (ADMFB). The approaches of numerical simulation and experimental verification were combined ...Bubble size distribution is the basic apparent performance and obvious characteristics in the air dense medium fluidized bed (ADMFB). The approaches of numerical simulation and experimental verification were combined to conduct the further research on the bubble generation and movement behavior. The results show that ADMFB could display favorable expanded characteristics after steady fluidization. With different particle size distributions of magnetite powder as medium solids, we selected an appropriate prediction model for the mean bubble diameter in ADMFB. The comparison results indicate that the mean bubble diameters along the bed heights are 35 mm < D b < 66 mm and 40 mm < D b < 69 mm with the magnetite powder of 0.3 mm+0.15mm and 0.15mm+0.074mm, respectively. The prediction model provides good agreements with the experimental and simulation data. Based on the optimal operating gas velocity distribution, the mixture of magnetite powder and <1mm fine coal as medium solids were utilized to carry out the separation experiment on 6-50mm raw coal. The results show that an optimal separation density d P of 1.73g/cm 3 with a probable error E of 0.07g/cm 3 and a recovery efficiency of 99.97% is achieved, which indicates good separation performance by applying ADMFB.展开更多
Infill drilling is now recognized as a viable improved recovery process. However, the reliable prediction of incremental recovery by infill drilling cannot be readily and accurately determined by present techniques. T...Infill drilling is now recognized as a viable improved recovery process. However, the reliable prediction of incremental recovery by infill drilling cannot be readily and accurately determined by present techniques. This paper proposes a hybrid predictive model of stream tube simulation and numerical simulation by using the contemporary theory of fluid flow in porous media. The model calculates the geometries of stream tubes, remaining oil distribution and water cut at different development stages in the near future, and uses a three-dimensional simulation to track fluid movement in each stream tube slice. This will help reservoir engineers to determine the feasibility of infill drilling. This predictive model is used to forecast the degree of control of well pattern, the ultimate incremental recovery of infill wells within an inverted 5-spot case in an oilfield and the economic benefit is also analyzed.展开更多
The hydrotreater system heat exchanger is one of the main pieces of heat exchange equipment in petrochemical enterprises.In recent years,oil resources have shown a deterioration trend of high sulfur and high acid cont...The hydrotreater system heat exchanger is one of the main pieces of heat exchange equipment in petrochemical enterprises.In recent years,oil resources have shown a deterioration trend of high sulfur and high acid content,with corrosion risk being prominent in oil processing.Taking the multi-medium flow corrosion risk of the hydrotreater heat exchanger pipeline in a petrochemical enterprise as the research object,based on the parameter characteristics of corrosive NH_(3) and HCl media under a high-temperature and high-pressure environment,the ammonium salt crystallization and deposition mechanism under multi-phase flow is revealed.The thermodynamic equilibrium curve is modified based on the thermodynamic principle and fugacity coefficient variation,and the prediction model of ammonium chloride crystallization in hydrotreater heat exchanger under high temperature and high pressure is constructed according to the modification.This study uses the mixture model,the flow-thermal coupling method,and the discrete phase model method to carry out the numerical simulation of multiphase flow and the numerical prediction of particle distribution characteristics in the heat exchanger pipeline of the hydrotreater heat exchange equipment,so as to realize the quantitative prediction of the particle crystallization deposition distribution in the pipeline.The results show that with the decrease of temperature,the crystallization occurs first on both sides of the center of the tube bundle,and more crystallization occurs in the lower half of the U-shaped tube,which may seriously lead to problems such as pipe blockage and under-deposit corrosion.展开更多
为了提高高速车辆-道岔复杂动力学响应的仿真计算效率和计算精度,构建了基于长短时记忆(Long Short Term Memory,LSTM)网络的动力学响应预测模型。首先,利用刚柔耦合动力学模型,生成不同水平不平顺状态下的轮轨垂向力样本。然后,将水平...为了提高高速车辆-道岔复杂动力学响应的仿真计算效率和计算精度,构建了基于长短时记忆(Long Short Term Memory,LSTM)网络的动力学响应预测模型。首先,利用刚柔耦合动力学模型,生成不同水平不平顺状态下的轮轨垂向力样本。然后,将水平不平顺幅值作为模型输入,轮轨垂向力作为输出,引入dropout参数,训练LSTM网络并采用均方误差和决定系数来评价模型性能。最后,基于计算结果分析轮重减载率和统计超限概率。结果表明:本文搭建的LSTM网络在训练轮次达到5000次后,均方误差基本稳定在0.00267,测试集的决定系数为0.903,模型具有较高的可靠性,可用于预测不平顺状态下的车辆-道岔动力学响应;与传统动力学模型计算相比,LSTM模型计算效率提高了约26倍,大幅提高了计算效率且计算精度达到要求;水平不平顺幅值达到6 mm时,超限概率达到了9.08%,超过了容许阈值。展开更多
Non aqueous reactive polymer materials produced by the reaction of isocyanate and polyol have been widely used in infrastructure construction,which may be subjected to explosion loads during complex service conditions...Non aqueous reactive polymer materials produced by the reaction of isocyanate and polyol have been widely used in infrastructure construction,which may be subjected to explosion loads during complex service conditions.The blast response of composite materials is a crucial aspect for applications in engineering structures potentially subjected to extreme loadings.In this work,damage caused to rebar reinforced polymer slabs by surface explosive charges was studied experimentally and numerically.A total of 6 field tests were carried out to investigate the performances of the failure modes of rebar reinforced polymer slabs under contact and near-field explosions.The influence of explosive quantity(10-40 g)and stand-off distances(0-20 cm)at the damage modes were studied.The results show that the failure modes of rebar reinforced polymer slabs under near-field explosion mainly were bending and surface spalling,while under the impact of contact explosion,the failure modes were craters of the top surface,spalling of the bottom surface,and middle perforation.Furthermore,a detailed fully coupled model was developed and validated with the test data.The influences of explosive quantity and slab thickness on rebar reinforced polymer slabs under contact explosion were studied.Based on this,the calculation formula between breach diameter,explosive quantity,and slab thickness is fitted.展开更多
基金Project supported by the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201206009)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(Grant Nos.lzujbky-2012-13 and lzujbky-2013-11)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2012CB955902 and 2013CB430204)
文摘Model error is one of the key factors restricting the accuracy of numerical weather prediction （NWP）. Considering the continuous evolution of the atmosphere, the observed data （ignoring the measurement error） can be viewed as a series of solutions of an accurate model governing the actual atmosphere. Model error is represented as an unknown term in the accurate model, thus NWP can be considered as an inverse problem to uncover the unknown error term. The inverse problem models can absorb long periods of observed data to generate model error correction procedures. They thus resolve the deficiency and faultiness of the NWP schemes employing only the initial-time data. In this study we construct two inverse problem models to estimate and extrapolate the time-varying and spatial-varying model errors in both the historical and forecast periods by using recent observations and analogue phenomena of the atmosphere. Numerical experiment on Burgers＇ equation has illustrated the substantial forecast improvement using inverse problem algorithms. The proposed inverse problem methods of suppressing NWP errors will be useful in future high accuracy applications of NWP.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos 40575036 and 40325015）.Acknowledgement The authors thank Drs Zhang Pei-Qun and Bao Ming very much for their valuable comments on the present paper.
文摘In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors （ACE） based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction （NWP）. The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model, Furthermore, in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historical analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for estimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly prediction experiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single analogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51221462, 51134022,51174203 and 51074156)the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2012CB214904)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2013M531430)
文摘Bubble size distribution is the basic apparent performance and obvious characteristics in the air dense medium fluidized bed (ADMFB). The approaches of numerical simulation and experimental verification were combined to conduct the further research on the bubble generation and movement behavior. The results show that ADMFB could display favorable expanded characteristics after steady fluidization. With different particle size distributions of magnetite powder as medium solids, we selected an appropriate prediction model for the mean bubble diameter in ADMFB. The comparison results indicate that the mean bubble diameters along the bed heights are 35 mm < D b < 66 mm and 40 mm < D b < 69 mm with the magnetite powder of 0.3 mm+0.15mm and 0.15mm+0.074mm, respectively. The prediction model provides good agreements with the experimental and simulation data. Based on the optimal operating gas velocity distribution, the mixture of magnetite powder and <1mm fine coal as medium solids were utilized to carry out the separation experiment on 6-50mm raw coal. The results show that an optimal separation density d P of 1.73g/cm 3 with a probable error E of 0.07g/cm 3 and a recovery efficiency of 99.97% is achieved, which indicates good separation performance by applying ADMFB.
文摘Infill drilling is now recognized as a viable improved recovery process. However, the reliable prediction of incremental recovery by infill drilling cannot be readily and accurately determined by present techniques. This paper proposes a hybrid predictive model of stream tube simulation and numerical simulation by using the contemporary theory of fluid flow in porous media. The model calculates the geometries of stream tubes, remaining oil distribution and water cut at different development stages in the near future, and uses a three-dimensional simulation to track fluid movement in each stream tube slice. This will help reservoir engineers to determine the feasibility of infill drilling. This predictive model is used to forecast the degree of control of well pattern, the ultimate incremental recovery of infill wells within an inverted 5-spot case in an oilfield and the economic benefit is also analyzed.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52176048,No.U1909216,No.51876194)the General Scientific Research Projects of the Department of Education of Zhejiang Province(No.Y202147969)the Key Research and Development Program of Zhejiang Province(No.2022C01115).
文摘The hydrotreater system heat exchanger is one of the main pieces of heat exchange equipment in petrochemical enterprises.In recent years,oil resources have shown a deterioration trend of high sulfur and high acid content,with corrosion risk being prominent in oil processing.Taking the multi-medium flow corrosion risk of the hydrotreater heat exchanger pipeline in a petrochemical enterprise as the research object,based on the parameter characteristics of corrosive NH_(3) and HCl media under a high-temperature and high-pressure environment,the ammonium salt crystallization and deposition mechanism under multi-phase flow is revealed.The thermodynamic equilibrium curve is modified based on the thermodynamic principle and fugacity coefficient variation,and the prediction model of ammonium chloride crystallization in hydrotreater heat exchanger under high temperature and high pressure is constructed according to the modification.This study uses the mixture model,the flow-thermal coupling method,and the discrete phase model method to carry out the numerical simulation of multiphase flow and the numerical prediction of particle distribution characteristics in the heat exchanger pipeline of the hydrotreater heat exchange equipment,so as to realize the quantitative prediction of the particle crystallization deposition distribution in the pipeline.The results show that with the decrease of temperature,the crystallization occurs first on both sides of the center of the tube bundle,and more crystallization occurs in the lower half of the U-shaped tube,which may seriously lead to problems such as pipe blockage and under-deposit corrosion.
文摘为了提高高速车辆-道岔复杂动力学响应的仿真计算效率和计算精度,构建了基于长短时记忆(Long Short Term Memory,LSTM)网络的动力学响应预测模型。首先,利用刚柔耦合动力学模型,生成不同水平不平顺状态下的轮轨垂向力样本。然后,将水平不平顺幅值作为模型输入,轮轨垂向力作为输出,引入dropout参数,训练LSTM网络并采用均方误差和决定系数来评价模型性能。最后,基于计算结果分析轮重减载率和统计超限概率。结果表明:本文搭建的LSTM网络在训练轮次达到5000次后,均方误差基本稳定在0.00267,测试集的决定系数为0.903,模型具有较高的可靠性,可用于预测不平顺状态下的车辆-道岔动力学响应;与传统动力学模型计算相比,LSTM模型计算效率提高了约26倍,大幅提高了计算效率且计算精度达到要求;水平不平顺幅值达到6 mm时,超限概率达到了9.08%,超过了容许阈值。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52009126,51939008)Foundation of Hubei Key Laboratory of Blasting Engineering(Grant No.BL202104)First-class Project Special Funding of Yellow River Laboratory(No.YRL22IR08)。
文摘Non aqueous reactive polymer materials produced by the reaction of isocyanate and polyol have been widely used in infrastructure construction,which may be subjected to explosion loads during complex service conditions.The blast response of composite materials is a crucial aspect for applications in engineering structures potentially subjected to extreme loadings.In this work,damage caused to rebar reinforced polymer slabs by surface explosive charges was studied experimentally and numerically.A total of 6 field tests were carried out to investigate the performances of the failure modes of rebar reinforced polymer slabs under contact and near-field explosions.The influence of explosive quantity(10-40 g)and stand-off distances(0-20 cm)at the damage modes were studied.The results show that the failure modes of rebar reinforced polymer slabs under near-field explosion mainly were bending and surface spalling,while under the impact of contact explosion,the failure modes were craters of the top surface,spalling of the bottom surface,and middle perforation.Furthermore,a detailed fully coupled model was developed and validated with the test data.The influences of explosive quantity and slab thickness on rebar reinforced polymer slabs under contact explosion were studied.Based on this,the calculation formula between breach diameter,explosive quantity,and slab thickness is fitted.
