对未来R&D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要组成部分.提出一种定量分析预测方法———利用多变量灰色MGM(1,n)模型(mu lti-variab le grey model),研究R&D投入与GDP所形成的复杂系统变量之间的相...对未来R&D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要组成部分.提出一种定量分析预测方法———利用多变量灰色MGM(1,n)模型(mu lti-variab le grey model),研究R&D投入与GDP所形成的复杂系统变量之间的相互影响关系,对天津市相关数据资料进行实证分析与中长期预测,为政府相关部门制订科学的科技发展规划提供有益的指导作用.展开更多
In order to minimize the harm caused by the instability of a planing craft, a motion prediction model is essential. This paper analyzed the feasibility of using an MGM（1,N） model in grey system theory to predict pla...In order to minimize the harm caused by the instability of a planing craft, a motion prediction model is essential. This paper analyzed the feasibility of using an MGM（1,N） model in grey system theory to predict planing craft motion and carried out the numerical simulation experiment. According to the characteristics of planing craft motion, a recurrence formula was proposed of the parameter matrix of an MGMfl,N） model. Using this formula, data can be updated in real-time without increasing computational complexity significantly. The results of numerical simulation show that using an MGM（1,N） model to predict planing motion is feasible and useful for prediction. So the method proposed in this study can reflect the planing craft motion mechanism successfully, and has rational and effective functions of forecasting and analyzing trends.展开更多
文摘对未来R&D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要组成部分.提出一种定量分析预测方法———利用多变量灰色MGM(1,n)模型(mu lti-variab le grey model),研究R&D投入与GDP所形成的复杂系统变量之间的相互影响关系,对天津市相关数据资料进行实证分析与中长期预测,为政府相关部门制订科学的科技发展规划提供有益的指导作用.
基金Supported by the Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle, Harbin Engineering Universitythe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (HEUCFL20101113)
文摘In order to minimize the harm caused by the instability of a planing craft, a motion prediction model is essential. This paper analyzed the feasibility of using an MGM（1,N） model in grey system theory to predict planing craft motion and carried out the numerical simulation experiment. According to the characteristics of planing craft motion, a recurrence formula was proposed of the parameter matrix of an MGMfl,N） model. Using this formula, data can be updated in real-time without increasing computational complexity significantly. The results of numerical simulation show that using an MGM（1,N） model to predict planing motion is feasible and useful for prediction. So the method proposed in this study can reflect the planing craft motion mechanism successfully, and has rational and effective functions of forecasting and analyzing trends.
