Despite of modern navigation devices, there are problems in navigation of vessels in waterways due to the geographical structures, disturbances in water, dynamic nature, and heavily environmental influenced sea traffi...Despite of modern navigation devices, there are problems in navigation of vessels in waterways due to the geographical structures, disturbances in water, dynamic nature, and heavily environmental influenced sea traffic. Even though all vessels are equipped with modern navigation devices, the accidents are reported caused by various reasons and mainly by human factor according to investigation. We propose an effective and efficient composition collision risk calculation method for finding the collision probability and avoiding the collision between ships in possible collision situations. The proposed composition collision risk calculation method at ship's position using combination of fuzzy and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods. The algorithm is straightforward to implement and is shown to be effective in automatic ship handling for ships involved in complex navigation situations. Experiments are carried out with indigenous data and the results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.展开更多
With the development of economy,China has to fight against the increasing public security risk. The theory of risk society points out that the traditional system of hierarchical management should be transformed into t...With the development of economy,China has to fight against the increasing public security risk. The theory of risk society points out that the traditional system of hierarchical management should be transformed into the governance system led by government and participated in by multiple parties to avoid and reduce risk in modern society. In order to achieve modernization of the national governance system and capacity,we have to deal with these two important subjects,that is,what can we learn from the Western risk society theory and how to establish a scientific and efficient public security risk management system based on the characteristics of modern public security risk.展开更多
In order to overcome the limitations of traditional methods in uncertainty analysis, a modified Bayesian network(BN), which is called evidence network(EN), was proposed with evidence theory to handle epistemic uncerta...In order to overcome the limitations of traditional methods in uncertainty analysis, a modified Bayesian network(BN), which is called evidence network(EN), was proposed with evidence theory to handle epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment(PRA). Fault trees(FTs) and event trees(ETs) were transformed into an EN which is used as a uniform framework to represent accident scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties of basic events in PRA were presented in evidence theory form and propagated through the network. A case study of a highway tunnel risk analysis was discussed to demonstrate the proposed approach. Frequencies of end states are obtained and expressed by belief and plausibility measures. The proposed approach addresses the uncertainties in experts' knowledge and can be easily applied to uncertainty analysis of FTs/ETs that have dependent events.展开更多
基金supported by ETRI through Maritime Safety & Maritime Traffic Management R&D Program of the MOF/KIMST (2009403, Development of Next Generation VTS for Maritime Safety)supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant funded by the Korea government (MEST) (No. 2011-0015009)
文摘Despite of modern navigation devices, there are problems in navigation of vessels in waterways due to the geographical structures, disturbances in water, dynamic nature, and heavily environmental influenced sea traffic. Even though all vessels are equipped with modern navigation devices, the accidents are reported caused by various reasons and mainly by human factor according to investigation. We propose an effective and efficient composition collision risk calculation method for finding the collision probability and avoiding the collision between ships in possible collision situations. The proposed composition collision risk calculation method at ship's position using combination of fuzzy and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods. The algorithm is straightforward to implement and is shown to be effective in automatic ship handling for ships involved in complex navigation situations. Experiments are carried out with indigenous data and the results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
文摘With the development of economy,China has to fight against the increasing public security risk. The theory of risk society points out that the traditional system of hierarchical management should be transformed into the governance system led by government and participated in by multiple parties to avoid and reduce risk in modern society. In order to achieve modernization of the national governance system and capacity,we have to deal with these two important subjects,that is,what can we learn from the Western risk society theory and how to establish a scientific and efficient public security risk management system based on the characteristics of modern public security risk.
基金Project(71201170)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In order to overcome the limitations of traditional methods in uncertainty analysis, a modified Bayesian network(BN), which is called evidence network(EN), was proposed with evidence theory to handle epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment(PRA). Fault trees(FTs) and event trees(ETs) were transformed into an EN which is used as a uniform framework to represent accident scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties of basic events in PRA were presented in evidence theory form and propagated through the network. A case study of a highway tunnel risk analysis was discussed to demonstrate the proposed approach. Frequencies of end states are obtained and expressed by belief and plausibility measures. The proposed approach addresses the uncertainties in experts' knowledge and can be easily applied to uncertainty analysis of FTs/ETs that have dependent events.
