Reservoir identification and production prediction are two of the most important tasks in petroleum exploration and development.Machine learning(ML)methods are used for petroleum-related studies,but have not been appl...Reservoir identification and production prediction are two of the most important tasks in petroleum exploration and development.Machine learning(ML)methods are used for petroleum-related studies,but have not been applied to reservoir identification and production prediction based on reservoir identification.Production forecasting studies are typically based on overall reservoir thickness and lack accuracy when reservoirs contain a water or dry layer without oil production.In this paper,a systematic ML method was developed using classification models for reservoir identification,and regression models for production prediction.The production models are based on the reservoir identification results.To realize the reservoir identification,seven optimized ML methods were used:four typical single ML methods and three ensemble ML methods.These methods classify the reservoir into five types of layers:water,dry and three levels of oil(I oil layer,II oil layer,III oil layer).The validation and test results of these seven optimized ML methods suggest the three ensemble methods perform better than the four single ML methods in reservoir identification.The XGBoost produced the model with the highest accuracy;up to 99%.The effective thickness of I and II oil layers determined during the reservoir identification was fed into the models for predicting production.Effective thickness considers the distribution of the water and the oil resulting in a more reasonable production prediction compared to predictions based on the overall reservoir thickness.To validate the superiority of the ML methods,reference models using overall reservoir thickness were built for comparison.The models based on effective thickness outperformed the reference models in every evaluation metric.The prediction accuracy of the ML models using effective thickness were 10%higher than that of reference model.Without the personal error or data distortion existing in traditional methods,this novel system realizes rapid analysis of data while reducing the time required to resolve reservoir classification and production prediction challenges.The ML models using the effective thickness obtained from reservoir identification were more accurate when predicting oil production compared to previous studies which use overall reservoir thickness.展开更多
Identification of reservoir types in deep carbonates has always been a great challenge due to complex logging responses caused by the heterogeneous scale and distribution of storage spaces.Traditional cross-plot analy...Identification of reservoir types in deep carbonates has always been a great challenge due to complex logging responses caused by the heterogeneous scale and distribution of storage spaces.Traditional cross-plot analysis and empirical formula methods for identifying reservoir types using geophysical logging data have high uncertainty and low efficiency,which cannot accurately reflect the nonlinear relationship between reservoir types and logging data.Recently,the kernel Fisher discriminant analysis(KFD),a kernel-based machine learning technique,attracts attention in many fields because of its strong nonlinear processing ability.However,the overall performance of KFD model may be limited as a single kernel function cannot simultaneously extrapolate and interpolate well,especially for highly complex data cases.To address this issue,in this study,a mixed kernel Fisher discriminant analysis(MKFD)model was established and applied to identify reservoir types of the deep Sinian carbonates in central Sichuan Basin,China.The MKFD model was trained and tested with 453 datasets from 7 coring wells,utilizing GR,CAL,DEN,AC,CNL and RT logs as input variables.The particle swarm optimization(PSO)was adopted for hyper-parameter optimization of MKFD model.To evaluate the model performance,prediction results of MKFD were compared with those of basic-kernel based KFD,RF and SVM models.Subsequently,the built MKFD model was applied in a blind well test,and a variable importance analysis was conducted.The comparison and blind test results demonstrated that MKFD outperformed traditional KFD,RF and SVM in the identification of reservoir types,which provided higher accuracy and stronger generalization.The MKFD can therefore be a reliable method for identifying reservoir types of deep carbonates.展开更多
文摘Reservoir identification and production prediction are two of the most important tasks in petroleum exploration and development.Machine learning(ML)methods are used for petroleum-related studies,but have not been applied to reservoir identification and production prediction based on reservoir identification.Production forecasting studies are typically based on overall reservoir thickness and lack accuracy when reservoirs contain a water or dry layer without oil production.In this paper,a systematic ML method was developed using classification models for reservoir identification,and regression models for production prediction.The production models are based on the reservoir identification results.To realize the reservoir identification,seven optimized ML methods were used:four typical single ML methods and three ensemble ML methods.These methods classify the reservoir into five types of layers:water,dry and three levels of oil(I oil layer,II oil layer,III oil layer).The validation and test results of these seven optimized ML methods suggest the three ensemble methods perform better than the four single ML methods in reservoir identification.The XGBoost produced the model with the highest accuracy;up to 99%.The effective thickness of I and II oil layers determined during the reservoir identification was fed into the models for predicting production.Effective thickness considers the distribution of the water and the oil resulting in a more reasonable production prediction compared to predictions based on the overall reservoir thickness.To validate the superiority of the ML methods,reference models using overall reservoir thickness were built for comparison.The models based on effective thickness outperformed the reference models in every evaluation metric.The prediction accuracy of the ML models using effective thickness were 10%higher than that of reference model.Without the personal error or data distortion existing in traditional methods,this novel system realizes rapid analysis of data while reducing the time required to resolve reservoir classification and production prediction challenges.The ML models using the effective thickness obtained from reservoir identification were more accurate when predicting oil production compared to previous studies which use overall reservoir thickness.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U21B2062)the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(No.2023AFB307)。
文摘Identification of reservoir types in deep carbonates has always been a great challenge due to complex logging responses caused by the heterogeneous scale and distribution of storage spaces.Traditional cross-plot analysis and empirical formula methods for identifying reservoir types using geophysical logging data have high uncertainty and low efficiency,which cannot accurately reflect the nonlinear relationship between reservoir types and logging data.Recently,the kernel Fisher discriminant analysis(KFD),a kernel-based machine learning technique,attracts attention in many fields because of its strong nonlinear processing ability.However,the overall performance of KFD model may be limited as a single kernel function cannot simultaneously extrapolate and interpolate well,especially for highly complex data cases.To address this issue,in this study,a mixed kernel Fisher discriminant analysis(MKFD)model was established and applied to identify reservoir types of the deep Sinian carbonates in central Sichuan Basin,China.The MKFD model was trained and tested with 453 datasets from 7 coring wells,utilizing GR,CAL,DEN,AC,CNL and RT logs as input variables.The particle swarm optimization(PSO)was adopted for hyper-parameter optimization of MKFD model.To evaluate the model performance,prediction results of MKFD were compared with those of basic-kernel based KFD,RF and SVM models.Subsequently,the built MKFD model was applied in a blind well test,and a variable importance analysis was conducted.The comparison and blind test results demonstrated that MKFD outperformed traditional KFD,RF and SVM in the identification of reservoir types,which provided higher accuracy and stronger generalization.The MKFD can therefore be a reliable method for identifying reservoir types of deep carbonates.
