In this paper, forecasting analysis to Box Cox transformation models with a practical example is considered. Based on chosen generalized functional form, variables influencing passenger are selected by statistic mech...In this paper, forecasting analysis to Box Cox transformation models with a practical example is considered. Based on chosen generalized functional form, variables influencing passenger are selected by statistic mechanism, not just by subjective judgment or dependent on certain specified model, and forecasting models are constructed. Comparing with typical linear regression forecasting models, nonlinear forecasting models are more effective and precise. Based on collecting data and final forecasting models, forecasting results are obtained and forecasting errors are analyzed. Finally, some helpful conclusions can be drawn from this study.展开更多
换流变压器阀侧套管是特高压直流输电系统中的重要组件,传统故障预警与状态评估方式借助于大量物理试验和人工数据采集。该文围绕阀侧套管开展数字孪生模型研究,提出了电力设备数字孪生模型构建规范,并基于实体套管几何模型等建立了阀...换流变压器阀侧套管是特高压直流输电系统中的重要组件,传统故障预警与状态评估方式借助于大量物理试验和人工数据采集。该文围绕阀侧套管开展数字孪生模型研究,提出了电力设备数字孪生模型构建规范,并基于实体套管几何模型等建立了阀侧套管孪生模型。研究表明:阀侧套管数字孪生模型可有效计及阀侧套管芯子绝缘材料在-40~120℃温变和10^(-1)~10^(3 )Hz频变的非线性特性,进一步应用阀侧套管孪生模型演算获得套管导电杆与绝缘油直接换热特性,且阀侧套管尾部温度接近变压器油温90℃。提出的阀侧套管数字孪生模型显著提高了阀侧套管电磁-热流耦合模型的计算速度,实现了阀侧套管运行状态平台可视化。应用该文提出的电热耦合非线性数学模型和换流变阀侧套管数字孪生平台,生成套管相关结构参数,生产制造了缩比阀侧套管并通过负极性截波雷电冲击575 k V电压系列现场试验。基于所提出的数字孪生模型结构,搭建了换流变阀侧套管数字孪生可视化平台,有效提高了阀侧套管运维及监测效率,实现了对于阀侧套管可视化监测及数字孪生技术的应用。展开更多
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （61135001, 61075029, 61074179, 61074155） and the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China （20110491692）
文摘In this paper, forecasting analysis to Box Cox transformation models with a practical example is considered. Based on chosen generalized functional form, variables influencing passenger are selected by statistic mechanism, not just by subjective judgment or dependent on certain specified model, and forecasting models are constructed. Comparing with typical linear regression forecasting models, nonlinear forecasting models are more effective and precise. Based on collecting data and final forecasting models, forecasting results are obtained and forecasting errors are analyzed. Finally, some helpful conclusions can be drawn from this study.
文摘换流变压器阀侧套管是特高压直流输电系统中的重要组件,传统故障预警与状态评估方式借助于大量物理试验和人工数据采集。该文围绕阀侧套管开展数字孪生模型研究,提出了电力设备数字孪生模型构建规范,并基于实体套管几何模型等建立了阀侧套管孪生模型。研究表明:阀侧套管数字孪生模型可有效计及阀侧套管芯子绝缘材料在-40~120℃温变和10^(-1)~10^(3 )Hz频变的非线性特性,进一步应用阀侧套管孪生模型演算获得套管导电杆与绝缘油直接换热特性,且阀侧套管尾部温度接近变压器油温90℃。提出的阀侧套管数字孪生模型显著提高了阀侧套管电磁-热流耦合模型的计算速度,实现了阀侧套管运行状态平台可视化。应用该文提出的电热耦合非线性数学模型和换流变阀侧套管数字孪生平台,生成套管相关结构参数,生产制造了缩比阀侧套管并通过负极性截波雷电冲击575 k V电压系列现场试验。基于所提出的数字孪生模型结构,搭建了换流变阀侧套管数字孪生可视化平台,有效提高了阀侧套管运维及监测效率,实现了对于阀侧套管可视化监测及数字孪生技术的应用。
