Cables that have been in service for over 20 years in Shanghai, a city with abundant surface water, failed more frequently and induced different cable accidents. This necessitates researches on the insulation aging st...Cables that have been in service for over 20 years in Shanghai, a city with abundant surface water, failed more frequently and induced different cable accidents. This necessitates researches on the insulation aging state of cables working in special circumstances. We performed multi-parameter tests with samples from about 300 cable lines in Shanghai. The tests included water tree investigation, tensile test, dielectric spectroscopy test, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and electrical aging test. Then, we carried out regression analysis between every two test parameters. Moreover, through two-sample t-Test and analysis of va- riance (ANOVA) of each test parameter, we analyzed the influences of cable-laying method and sampling section on the degradation of cable insulation respectively. Furthermore, the test parameters which have strong correlation in the regression analysis or significant differ- ences in the t-Test or ANOVA analysis were determined to be the ones identifying the XLPE cable insulation aging state. The thresholds for distinguishing insulation aging states had been also obtained with the aid of statistical analysis and fuzzy clustering. Based on the fuzzy in- ference, we established a cable insulation aging diagnosis model using the intensity transfer method. The results of regression analysis indicate that the degradation of cable insulation accelerates as the degree of in-service aging increases. This validates the rule that the in- crease of microscopic imperfections in solid material enhances the dielectric breakdown strength. The results of the two-sample t-Test and the ANOVA indicate that the direct-buried cables are more sensitive to insulation degradation than duct cables. This confirms that the tensile strength and breakdown strength are reliable functional parameters in cable insulation evaluations. A case study further indicates that the proposed diagnosis model based on the fuzzy inference can reflect the comprehensive aging state of cable insulation well, and that the cable service time has no correlation with the insulation aging state.展开更多
The software reliability testing has many disadvantages in practice, such as high complexity of constructing operational profiles and poor fault detection efficiency. Oppositely, the directed testing with a high fa...The software reliability testing has many disadvantages in practice, such as high complexity of constructing operational profiles and poor fault detection efficiency. Oppositely, the directed testing with a high fault detection rate is incapable of estimating reliability quantificationally. To solve this problem, a hybrid testing combining reliability and directed testing as well as a reliability model based on the order statistic （OS） model were presented by Mitchell. An extended research on Mitchell＇s work is proposed. Firstly, the most proper distribution of the fault＇s failure rate which tends to be Iognormal is suggested, and a detailed form of the OS model based on Iognormal and the corresponding parameter estimation method are proposed, respectively. Secondly, an im- plementing framework for the hybrid testing is proposed. Finally, the hybrid testing and the OS model are applied on a real website system. The experimental results indicate： the hybrid testing has more efficient fault detection power and lower testing cost than the reliability testing; compared with three traditional software reliabil ity growth models, the OS model has a best or pretty estimation or prediction power for each data set; and for the failure data set collected from hybrid testing, the OS model also achieves an ac- ceptable estimation result.展开更多
Under Type-Ⅱ progressively hybrid censoring, this paper discusses statistical inference and optimal design on stepstress partially accelerated life test for hybrid system in presence of masked data. It is assumed tha...Under Type-Ⅱ progressively hybrid censoring, this paper discusses statistical inference and optimal design on stepstress partially accelerated life test for hybrid system in presence of masked data. It is assumed that the lifetime of the component in hybrid systems follows independent and identical modified Weibull distributions. The maximum likelihood estimations(MLEs)of the unknown parameters, acceleration factor and reliability indexes are derived by using the Newton-Raphson algorithm. The asymptotic variance-covariance matrix and the approximate confidence intervals are obtained based on normal approximation to the asymptotic distribution of MLEs of model parameters. Moreover,two bootstrap confidence intervals are constructed by using the parametric bootstrap method. The optimal time of changing stress levels is determined under D-optimality and A-optimality criteria.Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to illustrate the proposed procedures.展开更多
A rule of how the ignition probability or invalidation probability of infantry grenade varies with the projectile quantity is presented based on the statistical analysis. The statistical induction, quantizing analysis...A rule of how the ignition probability or invalidation probability of infantry grenade varies with the projectile quantity is presented based on the statistical analysis. The statistical induction, quantizing analysis and data processing in the infantry grenade type approval test are completed, and we obtain how various test factors in the research item affect the test results(invalidation probability), i.e., quantized data. The acquisition of these quantized data provides theory basis and data auspice for further reasonable filtration of all test factors and the optimization of test scheme.展开更多
The depth of penetration(DOP)method is a well-known ballistic test method for characterisation and ranking of ceramic armour materials.The ceramic tile is bonded to a backing material of semi-infinite thickness,and th...The depth of penetration(DOP)method is a well-known ballistic test method for characterisation and ranking of ceramic armour materials.The ceramic tile is bonded to a backing material of semi-infinite thickness,and the penetration depth of the projectile gives a measure of the performance of the ceramic.There is,however,an inherent variability in the results from this test method.In this work,the accuracy and the variability of the DOP method has been investigated in a round robin exercise.Six ballistic test centres took part in the exercise.A test protocol was developed,in which the threat type(projectile and impact conditions)and a procedure on how to prepare the targets were specified.The targets consisted of alumina tiles of two different thicknesses that were bonded to polycarbonate backing cubes.Two different 7.62 mm armour piercing projectiles were employed;one with a hard steel core and one with a tungsten carbide core.The projectiles and the other materials all came from single material batches in order to avoid batch-to-batch variations in material properties.These materials were distributed between the ballistic test centres.The test results of the different ballistic test facilities were collected and compared.There was not a lot of variation between the average DOP values obtained at each laboratory,but the variation in penetration depth between shots was high.The consequence of this variation may be less confidence in the test results,and a statistical method was used to evaluate the required number of tests that are sufficient to obtain an average result with high confidence.In most cases,the required number of tests is much higher than what is practically feasible.This work was conducted as part of the European Defence Agency-project CERAMBALL.展开更多
Based on the sequential probability ratio test(SPRT)developed by Wald,an improved method for successful probability test of missile flight is proposed.A recursive algorithm and its program in Matlab are designed to ca...Based on the sequential probability ratio test(SPRT)developed by Wald,an improved method for successful probability test of missile flight is proposed.A recursive algorithm and its program in Matlab are designed to calculate the real risk level of the sequential test decision and the average number of samples under various test conditions.A concept,that is "rejecting as soon as possible",is put forward and an alternate operation strategy is conducted.The simulation results show that it can reduce the test expenses.展开更多
基金Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China（51277117）, Shang- hai Science and Technology Comrmssion（11 DZ2283000）.
文摘Cables that have been in service for over 20 years in Shanghai, a city with abundant surface water, failed more frequently and induced different cable accidents. This necessitates researches on the insulation aging state of cables working in special circumstances. We performed multi-parameter tests with samples from about 300 cable lines in Shanghai. The tests included water tree investigation, tensile test, dielectric spectroscopy test, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and electrical aging test. Then, we carried out regression analysis between every two test parameters. Moreover, through two-sample t-Test and analysis of va- riance (ANOVA) of each test parameter, we analyzed the influences of cable-laying method and sampling section on the degradation of cable insulation respectively. Furthermore, the test parameters which have strong correlation in the regression analysis or significant differ- ences in the t-Test or ANOVA analysis were determined to be the ones identifying the XLPE cable insulation aging state. The thresholds for distinguishing insulation aging states had been also obtained with the aid of statistical analysis and fuzzy clustering. Based on the fuzzy in- ference, we established a cable insulation aging diagnosis model using the intensity transfer method. The results of regression analysis indicate that the degradation of cable insulation accelerates as the degree of in-service aging increases. This validates the rule that the in- crease of microscopic imperfections in solid material enhances the dielectric breakdown strength. The results of the two-sample t-Test and the ANOVA indicate that the direct-buried cables are more sensitive to insulation degradation than duct cables. This confirms that the tensile strength and breakdown strength are reliable functional parameters in cable insulation evaluations. A case study further indicates that the proposed diagnosis model based on the fuzzy inference can reflect the comprehensive aging state of cable insulation well, and that the cable service time has no correlation with the insulation aging state.
文摘The software reliability testing has many disadvantages in practice, such as high complexity of constructing operational profiles and poor fault detection efficiency. Oppositely, the directed testing with a high fault detection rate is incapable of estimating reliability quantificationally. To solve this problem, a hybrid testing combining reliability and directed testing as well as a reliability model based on the order statistic （OS） model were presented by Mitchell. An extended research on Mitchell＇s work is proposed. Firstly, the most proper distribution of the fault＇s failure rate which tends to be Iognormal is suggested, and a detailed form of the OS model based on Iognormal and the corresponding parameter estimation method are proposed, respectively. Secondly, an im- plementing framework for the hybrid testing is proposed. Finally, the hybrid testing and the OS model are applied on a real website system. The experimental results indicate： the hybrid testing has more efficient fault detection power and lower testing cost than the reliability testing; compared with three traditional software reliabil ity growth models, the OS model has a best or pretty estimation or prediction power for each data set; and for the failure data set collected from hybrid testing, the OS model also achieves an ac- ceptable estimation result.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71401134 71571144+1 种基金 71171164)the Program of International Cooperation and Exchanges in Science and Technology Funded by Shaanxi Province(2016KW-033)
文摘Under Type-Ⅱ progressively hybrid censoring, this paper discusses statistical inference and optimal design on stepstress partially accelerated life test for hybrid system in presence of masked data. It is assumed that the lifetime of the component in hybrid systems follows independent and identical modified Weibull distributions. The maximum likelihood estimations(MLEs)of the unknown parameters, acceleration factor and reliability indexes are derived by using the Newton-Raphson algorithm. The asymptotic variance-covariance matrix and the approximate confidence intervals are obtained based on normal approximation to the asymptotic distribution of MLEs of model parameters. Moreover,two bootstrap confidence intervals are constructed by using the parametric bootstrap method. The optimal time of changing stress levels is determined under D-optimality and A-optimality criteria.Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to illustrate the proposed procedures.
文摘A rule of how the ignition probability or invalidation probability of infantry grenade varies with the projectile quantity is presented based on the statistical analysis. The statistical induction, quantizing analysis and data processing in the infantry grenade type approval test are completed, and we obtain how various test factors in the research item affect the test results(invalidation probability), i.e., quantized data. The acquisition of these quantized data provides theory basis and data auspice for further reasonable filtration of all test factors and the optimization of test scheme.
基金conducted as part of the European Defence Agency-project CERAMBALL,contract number B 1091 GEM1 GP
文摘The depth of penetration(DOP)method is a well-known ballistic test method for characterisation and ranking of ceramic armour materials.The ceramic tile is bonded to a backing material of semi-infinite thickness,and the penetration depth of the projectile gives a measure of the performance of the ceramic.There is,however,an inherent variability in the results from this test method.In this work,the accuracy and the variability of the DOP method has been investigated in a round robin exercise.Six ballistic test centres took part in the exercise.A test protocol was developed,in which the threat type(projectile and impact conditions)and a procedure on how to prepare the targets were specified.The targets consisted of alumina tiles of two different thicknesses that were bonded to polycarbonate backing cubes.Two different 7.62 mm armour piercing projectiles were employed;one with a hard steel core and one with a tungsten carbide core.The projectiles and the other materials all came from single material batches in order to avoid batch-to-batch variations in material properties.These materials were distributed between the ballistic test centres.The test results of the different ballistic test facilities were collected and compared.There was not a lot of variation between the average DOP values obtained at each laboratory,but the variation in penetration depth between shots was high.The consequence of this variation may be less confidence in the test results,and a statistical method was used to evaluate the required number of tests that are sufficient to obtain an average result with high confidence.In most cases,the required number of tests is much higher than what is practically feasible.This work was conducted as part of the European Defence Agency-project CERAMBALL.
文摘Based on the sequential probability ratio test(SPRT)developed by Wald,an improved method for successful probability test of missile flight is proposed.A recursive algorithm and its program in Matlab are designed to calculate the real risk level of the sequential test decision and the average number of samples under various test conditions.A concept,that is "rejecting as soon as possible",is put forward and an alternate operation strategy is conducted.The simulation results show that it can reduce the test expenses.
