Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degrad...Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.展开更多
In order to improve the process precision of an XY laser annealing table, a geometric error modeling, and an identification and compensation method were proposed. Based on multi-body system theory, a geometric error m...In order to improve the process precision of an XY laser annealing table, a geometric error modeling, and an identification and compensation method were proposed. Based on multi-body system theory, a geometric error model for the laser annealing table was established. It supports the identification of 7 geometric errors affecting the annealing accuracy. An original identification method was presented to recognize these geometric errors. Positioning errors of 5 lines in the workspace were measured by a laser interferometer, and the 7 geometric errors were identified by the proposed algorithm. Finally, a software-based error compensation method was adopted, and a compensation mechanism was developed in a postprocessor based on LabVIEW. The identified geometric errors can be compensated by converting ideal NC codes to actual NC codes. A validation experiment has been conducted on the laser annealing table, and the results indicate that positioning errors of two validation lines decreased from ±37 μm and ±33 μm to ±5 μm and ±4.5 μm, respectively. The geometric error modeling, identification and compensation method presented in this work can be straightforwardly extended to any configurations of 2-dimensional worktable.展开更多
For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is ...For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is built. An analytical approximation to the probability density function (PDF) of the product's lifetime is derived in a closed form. The process and data of SSADT are analyzed to obtain the relation model of the observed data under each accelerated stress. The likelihood function for the population-based observed data is constructed. The population-based model parameters and its random coefficient prior values are estimated. According to the newly observed data of the target product in SSADT, an analytical approximation to the PDF of its residual lifetime (RL) is derived in accordance with its individual degradation characteristics. The parameter updating method based on Bayesian inference is applied to obtain the posterior value of random coefficient of the RL model. A numerical example by simulation is analyzed to verify the accuracy and advantage of the proposed model.展开更多
Nonlinearity and implicitness are common degradation features of the stochastic degradation equipment for prognostics.These features have an uncertain effect on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of the equipmen...Nonlinearity and implicitness are common degradation features of the stochastic degradation equipment for prognostics.These features have an uncertain effect on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of the equipment.The current data-driven RUL prediction method has not systematically studied the nonlinear hidden degradation modeling and the RUL distribution function.This paper uses the nonlinear Wiener process to build a dual nonlinear implicit degradation model.Based on the historical measured data of similar equipment,the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is used to estimate the fixed coefficients and the prior distribution of a random coefficient.Using the on-site measured data of the target equipment,the posterior distribution of a random coefficient and actual degradation state are step-by-step updated based on Bayesian inference and the extended Kalman filtering algorithm.The analytical form of the RUL distribution function is derived based on the first hitting time distribution.Combined with the two case studies,the proposed method is verified to have certain advantages over the existing methods in the accuracy of prediction.展开更多
In this work,synchronous cutting of concave and convex surfaces was achieved using the duplex helical method for the hypoid gear,and the problem of tooth surface error correction was studied.First,the mathematical mod...In this work,synchronous cutting of concave and convex surfaces was achieved using the duplex helical method for the hypoid gear,and the problem of tooth surface error correction was studied.First,the mathematical model of the hypoid gears machined by the duplex helical method was established.Second,the coordinates of discrete points on the tooth surface were obtained by measurement center,and the normal errors of the discrete points were calculated.Third,a tooth surface error correction model is established,and the tooth surface error was corrected using the Levenberg-Marquard algorithm with trust region strategy and least square method.Finally,grinding experiments were carried out on the machining parameters obtained by Levenberg-Marquard algorithm with trust region strategy,which had a better effect on tooth surface error correction than the least square method.After the tooth surface error is corrected,the maximum absolute error is reduced from 30.9μm before correction to 6.8μm,the root mean square of the concave error is reduced from 15.1 to 2.1μm,the root mean square of the convex error is reduced from 10.8 to 1.8μm,and the sum of squared errors of the concave and convex surfaces was reduced from 15471 to 358μm^(2).It is verified that the Levenberg-Marquard algorithm with trust region strategy has a good accuracy for the tooth surface error correction of hypoid gear machined by duplex helical method.展开更多
Track monitoring is a fast method of determining incorrect return-to-track and track-to-track assignments. An analytical method to evaluate the effectiveness of track monitoring was presented by reference [1]. In orde...Track monitoring is a fast method of determining incorrect return-to-track and track-to-track assignments. An analytical method to evaluate the effectiveness of track monitoring was presented by reference [1]. In order to reduce the probability of initiating or accepting the ghost track, two sequential track monitoring algorithms, which use the inclination angles to form test statistics, are proposed in this paper. Two decision rules are given and the corresponding thresholds are derived. The paper also gives the estimation methods of the noncentral parameter of noncentral chi-square distribution when the true value of it is unknown, the algorithms can adaptively estimate the decision thresholds and can make sequential track monitoring decision on line. Simulation is also made and the results show that the proposed algorithms are effective and feasible.展开更多
基金Projects(51475462,61374138,61370031)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.
基金Projects(2012ZX04010-011,2009ZX02037-02) supported by the Key National Science and Technology Project of China
文摘In order to improve the process precision of an XY laser annealing table, a geometric error modeling, and an identification and compensation method were proposed. Based on multi-body system theory, a geometric error model for the laser annealing table was established. It supports the identification of 7 geometric errors affecting the annealing accuracy. An original identification method was presented to recognize these geometric errors. Positioning errors of 5 lines in the workspace were measured by a laser interferometer, and the 7 geometric errors were identified by the proposed algorithm. Finally, a software-based error compensation method was adopted, and a compensation mechanism was developed in a postprocessor based on LabVIEW. The identified geometric errors can be compensated by converting ideal NC codes to actual NC codes. A validation experiment has been conducted on the laser annealing table, and the results indicate that positioning errors of two validation lines decreased from ±37 μm and ±33 μm to ±5 μm and ±4.5 μm, respectively. The geometric error modeling, identification and compensation method presented in this work can be straightforwardly extended to any configurations of 2-dimensional worktable.
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(71601183)
文摘For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is built. An analytical approximation to the probability density function (PDF) of the product's lifetime is derived in a closed form. The process and data of SSADT are analyzed to obtain the relation model of the observed data under each accelerated stress. The likelihood function for the population-based observed data is constructed. The population-based model parameters and its random coefficient prior values are estimated. According to the newly observed data of the target product in SSADT, an analytical approximation to the PDF of its residual lifetime (RL) is derived in accordance with its individual degradation characteristics. The parameter updating method based on Bayesian inference is applied to obtain the posterior value of random coefficient of the RL model. A numerical example by simulation is analyzed to verify the accuracy and advantage of the proposed model.
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(7160118371901216)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2017M623415)
文摘Nonlinearity and implicitness are common degradation features of the stochastic degradation equipment for prognostics.These features have an uncertain effect on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of the equipment.The current data-driven RUL prediction method has not systematically studied the nonlinear hidden degradation modeling and the RUL distribution function.This paper uses the nonlinear Wiener process to build a dual nonlinear implicit degradation model.Based on the historical measured data of similar equipment,the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is used to estimate the fixed coefficients and the prior distribution of a random coefficient.Using the on-site measured data of the target equipment,the posterior distribution of a random coefficient and actual degradation state are step-by-step updated based on Bayesian inference and the extended Kalman filtering algorithm.The analytical form of the RUL distribution function is derived based on the first hitting time distribution.Combined with the two case studies,the proposed method is verified to have certain advantages over the existing methods in the accuracy of prediction.
基金Projects(52075552,51575533,51805555,11662004)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China。
文摘In this work,synchronous cutting of concave and convex surfaces was achieved using the duplex helical method for the hypoid gear,and the problem of tooth surface error correction was studied.First,the mathematical model of the hypoid gears machined by the duplex helical method was established.Second,the coordinates of discrete points on the tooth surface were obtained by measurement center,and the normal errors of the discrete points were calculated.Third,a tooth surface error correction model is established,and the tooth surface error was corrected using the Levenberg-Marquard algorithm with trust region strategy and least square method.Finally,grinding experiments were carried out on the machining parameters obtained by Levenberg-Marquard algorithm with trust region strategy,which had a better effect on tooth surface error correction than the least square method.After the tooth surface error is corrected,the maximum absolute error is reduced from 30.9μm before correction to 6.8μm,the root mean square of the concave error is reduced from 15.1 to 2.1μm,the root mean square of the convex error is reduced from 10.8 to 1.8μm,and the sum of squared errors of the concave and convex surfaces was reduced from 15471 to 358μm^(2).It is verified that the Levenberg-Marquard algorithm with trust region strategy has a good accuracy for the tooth surface error correction of hypoid gear machined by duplex helical method.
文摘Track monitoring is a fast method of determining incorrect return-to-track and track-to-track assignments. An analytical method to evaluate the effectiveness of track monitoring was presented by reference [1]. In order to reduce the probability of initiating or accepting the ghost track, two sequential track monitoring algorithms, which use the inclination angles to form test statistics, are proposed in this paper. Two decision rules are given and the corresponding thresholds are derived. The paper also gives the estimation methods of the noncentral parameter of noncentral chi-square distribution when the true value of it is unknown, the algorithms can adaptively estimate the decision thresholds and can make sequential track monitoring decision on line. Simulation is also made and the results show that the proposed algorithms are effective and feasible.
