Power load forecasting accuracy related to the development of the power system. There were so many factors influencing the power load, but their effects were not the same and what factors played a leading role could n...Power load forecasting accuracy related to the development of the power system. There were so many factors influencing the power load, but their effects were not the same and what factors played a leading role could not be determined empirically. Based on the analysis of the principal component, the paper forecasted the demands of power load with the method of the multivariate linear regression model prediction. Took the rural power grid load for example, the paper analyzed the impacts of different factors on power load, selected the forecast methods which were appropriate for using in this area, forecasted its 2014-2018 electricity load, and provided a reliable basis for grid planning.展开更多
Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devi...Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.展开更多
According to the chaotic and non-linear characters of power load data,the time series matrix is established with the theory of phase-space reconstruction,and then Lyapunov exponents with chaotic time series are comput...According to the chaotic and non-linear characters of power load data,the time series matrix is established with the theory of phase-space reconstruction,and then Lyapunov exponents with chaotic time series are computed to determine the time delay and the embedding dimension.Due to different features of the data,data mining algorithm is conducted to classify the data into different groups.Redundant information is eliminated by the advantage of data mining technology,and the historical loads that have highly similar features with the forecasting day are searched by the system.As a result,the training data can be decreased and the computing speed can also be improved when constructing support vector machine(SVM) model.Then,SVM algorithm is used to predict power load with parameters that get in pretreatment.In order to prove the effectiveness of the new model,the calculation with data mining SVM algorithm is compared with that of single SVM and back propagation network.It can be seen that the new DSVM algorithm effectively improves the forecast accuracy by 0.75%,1.10% and 1.73% compared with SVM for two random dimensions of 11-dimension,14-dimension and BP network,respectively.This indicates that the DSVM gains perfect improvement effect in the short-term power load forecasting.展开更多
With the increasing of electric vehicles(EVs)penetration in power grids,the charging of EVs will have significant impacts on power system planning and operation.It is necessary to note that the majority of EVs are not...With the increasing of electric vehicles(EVs)penetration in power grids,the charging of EVs will have significant impacts on power system planning and operation.It is necessary to note that the majority of EVs are not in use in most ofthe time in a day.Therefore,the onboard batteries can be utilized as energy storage devices.This article reviews and discusses the current related research in the following areas.展开更多
A set of analytical equations for the variation of the axial force along depth and the pile-top load-settle-ment curve were established, using tri-linear softening model to pile-side soil and bilinear hardening model ...A set of analytical equations for the variation of the axial force along depth and the pile-top load-settle-ment curve were established, using tri-linear softening model to pile-side soil and bilinear hardening model to pile-end soil . Influences of the pile-side and pile-end soil behavior on the load-settlement curve were discussed, indica-ting that the lowering reason for the variation step degree of the axial force along depth is the softening of the pile-side soil to result in the side friction lowering when the pile-top load is increased. To verify the reliability of thismethod, the parameters used in calculation are obtained from the test in Zhuzhou area. The obtained results are thencompared with the tested results. Contrast shows that the calculated results and the tested values are very close,which illustrates that the proposed method is reliable.展开更多
城市电网在发生N-1故障后,极可能新增运行风险,导致N-1-1时出现大面积停电事故。为管控城市电网N-1后运行风险,该文提出一种改进双智能体竞争双深度Q网络(dueling double deep Q network,D3QN)的城市电网N-1风险管控转供策略。根据风险...城市电网在发生N-1故障后,极可能新增运行风险,导致N-1-1时出现大面积停电事故。为管控城市电网N-1后运行风险,该文提出一种改进双智能体竞争双深度Q网络(dueling double deep Q network,D3QN)的城市电网N-1风险管控转供策略。根据风险管控原则,提出一种无需额外历史数据、考虑备自投装置、单供变电站风险和单供负荷母线风险的N-1场景指标;建立计及动作次序、指标间关系的负荷转供三阶段求解模型。以含预动作-变化探索值选择策略的改进双智能体D3QN方法,将负荷转供分为多个子转供环节学习,使转供思路清晰化,对动作空间进行降维,提高训练寻优效果,得到管控N-1风险的负荷转供策略。通过城市电网多场景算例分析,验证该文模型和方法的有效性。展开更多
远程终端单元(remote terminal unit, RTU)是当前电网中最主要的测量终端,但是其量测量没有统一时标,更新频率低,而且存在不确定性的传输时延。而同步相量测量单元(phasor measurement unit, PMU)具有高同步、高精度等特点,成为电力系...远程终端单元(remote terminal unit, RTU)是当前电网中最主要的测量终端,但是其量测量没有统一时标,更新频率低,而且存在不确定性的传输时延。而同步相量测量单元(phasor measurement unit, PMU)具有高同步、高精度等特点,成为电力系统中重要的数据采集装置。为协调利用这两种测量数据,首先归纳出RTU量测非同步的来源,分析了量测数据不同步对状态估计和潮流计算的影响,并给出了相关的验证结果。并提出基于能量交互算子的量测数据相关性分析方法。该方法应用同步数据间相关性最大的原理,利用PMU所产生的精确数据来同步RTU数据,为混合测量系统确定测量基准时刻。通过对IEEE39节点电网和广东83节点实际电网的仿真,结果表明该方法能有效校正量测数据非同步以及改善状态估计和潮流计算精度。展开更多
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Research Project Fund of Provincial Department of Education(12531004)Project of Heilongjiang Leading Talent Echelon Talented(2012)
文摘Power load forecasting accuracy related to the development of the power system. There were so many factors influencing the power load, but their effects were not the same and what factors played a leading role could not be determined empirically. Based on the analysis of the principal component, the paper forecasted the demands of power load with the method of the multivariate linear regression model prediction. Took the rural power grid load for example, the paper analyzed the impacts of different factors on power load, selected the forecast methods which were appropriate for using in this area, forecasted its 2014-2018 electricity load, and provided a reliable basis for grid planning.
文摘Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （60674039, 60704004） and Innovation Fund for Outstanding Scholar of Henan Province （084200510009 ）
基金Project(70671039) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘According to the chaotic and non-linear characters of power load data,the time series matrix is established with the theory of phase-space reconstruction,and then Lyapunov exponents with chaotic time series are computed to determine the time delay and the embedding dimension.Due to different features of the data,data mining algorithm is conducted to classify the data into different groups.Redundant information is eliminated by the advantage of data mining technology,and the historical loads that have highly similar features with the forecasting day are searched by the system.As a result,the training data can be decreased and the computing speed can also be improved when constructing support vector machine(SVM) model.Then,SVM algorithm is used to predict power load with parameters that get in pretreatment.In order to prove the effectiveness of the new model,the calculation with data mining SVM algorithm is compared with that of single SVM and back propagation network.It can be seen that the new DSVM algorithm effectively improves the forecast accuracy by 0.75%,1.10% and 1.73% compared with SVM for two random dimensions of 11-dimension,14-dimension and BP network,respectively.This indicates that the DSVM gains perfect improvement effect in the short-term power load forecasting.
文摘With the increasing of electric vehicles(EVs)penetration in power grids,the charging of EVs will have significant impacts on power system planning and operation.It is necessary to note that the majority of EVs are not in use in most ofthe time in a day.Therefore,the onboard batteries can be utilized as energy storage devices.This article reviews and discusses the current related research in the following areas.
基金Project (01B028) supported by Department of Education of Hunan Province
文摘A set of analytical equations for the variation of the axial force along depth and the pile-top load-settle-ment curve were established, using tri-linear softening model to pile-side soil and bilinear hardening model to pile-end soil . Influences of the pile-side and pile-end soil behavior on the load-settlement curve were discussed, indica-ting that the lowering reason for the variation step degree of the axial force along depth is the softening of the pile-side soil to result in the side friction lowering when the pile-top load is increased. To verify the reliability of thismethod, the parameters used in calculation are obtained from the test in Zhuzhou area. The obtained results are thencompared with the tested results. Contrast shows that the calculated results and the tested values are very close,which illustrates that the proposed method is reliable.
文摘城市电网在发生N-1故障后,极可能新增运行风险,导致N-1-1时出现大面积停电事故。为管控城市电网N-1后运行风险,该文提出一种改进双智能体竞争双深度Q网络(dueling double deep Q network,D3QN)的城市电网N-1风险管控转供策略。根据风险管控原则,提出一种无需额外历史数据、考虑备自投装置、单供变电站风险和单供负荷母线风险的N-1场景指标;建立计及动作次序、指标间关系的负荷转供三阶段求解模型。以含预动作-变化探索值选择策略的改进双智能体D3QN方法,将负荷转供分为多个子转供环节学习,使转供思路清晰化,对动作空间进行降维,提高训练寻优效果,得到管控N-1风险的负荷转供策略。通过城市电网多场景算例分析,验证该文模型和方法的有效性。
文摘远程终端单元(remote terminal unit, RTU)是当前电网中最主要的测量终端,但是其量测量没有统一时标,更新频率低,而且存在不确定性的传输时延。而同步相量测量单元(phasor measurement unit, PMU)具有高同步、高精度等特点,成为电力系统中重要的数据采集装置。为协调利用这两种测量数据,首先归纳出RTU量测非同步的来源,分析了量测数据不同步对状态估计和潮流计算的影响,并给出了相关的验证结果。并提出基于能量交互算子的量测数据相关性分析方法。该方法应用同步数据间相关性最大的原理,利用PMU所产生的精确数据来同步RTU数据,为混合测量系统确定测量基准时刻。通过对IEEE39节点电网和广东83节点实际电网的仿真,结果表明该方法能有效校正量测数据非同步以及改善状态估计和潮流计算精度。
