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Earthquake Nowcasting方法在云南地区的应用研究
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作者 张欣乐 缪淼 +2 位作者 韩鹏 王蕤 常莹 《地球物理学报》 北大核心 2025年第8期3149-3161,共13页
在过去的10年中,基于统计模型的Nowcasting方法被引入地震危险性评估工作中,形成了一种新的评价方法:Earthquake Nowcasting.该方法计算简便,可以快速给出对应时间点的地震危险性,目前已在全世界多个地震频发地区开展应用.为了探索该方... 在过去的10年中,基于统计模型的Nowcasting方法被引入地震危险性评估工作中,形成了一种新的评价方法:Earthquake Nowcasting.该方法计算简便,可以快速给出对应时间点的地震危险性,目前已在全世界多个地震频发地区开展应用.为了探索该方法在中国地震科学实验场的适用性,本文将Earthquake Nowcasting应用于云南地区,基于高频的“小地震”数目,定义“自然周期”并构建地震复发模型,估算自上一次破坏性地震发生至今该地区的应力累积水平,实现大地震发震风险的定量评估.结果表明:(1)2021漾濞M_(S)6.4地震前,震中所在区域有较高的大地震风险;(2)云南省西北部、东北部、南部以及中部的城市和地区存在较高的破坏性地震可能性,后续地震事件与预测结果具有较好一致性;(3)震级相对较高的前震可能会影响主震的危险性评价.因此,Earthquake Nowcasting具有一定的使用价值,可为云南地区的地震危险性评价工作提供参考,但因Earthquake Nowcasting方法未考虑地震的丛集性特征,在实际使用时还必须结合前震、余震的发震规律才能给出更科学、准确的地震危险性评价. 展开更多
关键词 earthquake Nowcasting 云南省 自然周期 earthquake potential score
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Variational characteristics of shear-wave splitting on the 2001 Shidian earthquakes in Yunnan, China 被引量:21
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作者 高原 梁维 +5 位作者 丁香 薛艳 蔡明军 刘希强 苏有锦 彭立国 《地震学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2004年第6期576-582,共7页
In 2001 three earthquakes occurred in Shidian in Yunnan Province, which were the MS=5.2 on April 10, the MS=5.9 on April 12 and the MS=5.3 on June 8. Based on the data from the station Baoshan of Yunnan Telemetry Digi... In 2001 three earthquakes occurred in Shidian in Yunnan Province, which were the MS=5.2 on April 10, the MS=5.9 on April 12 and the MS=5.3 on June 8. Based on the data from the station Baoshan of Yunnan Telemetry Digital Seismograph Network, the variational characteristics of shear-wave splitting on these series of strong earthquakes has been studied by using the systematic analysis method (SAM) of shear-wave splitting. The result shows the time delays of shear-wave splitting basically increase with earthquake activity intensifying. However the time delays abruptly decrease immediately before strong aftershocks. It accords with the stress relaxation before earthquakes, which was found recently in study on shear-wave splitting. The result suggests it is significant for reducing the harm degree of earthquakes to develop the stress-forecasting on earthquake in strong active tectonic zones and economic developed regions or big cities under the danger of strong earthquakes. 展开更多
关键词 剪切波分裂 时间变化 地震应力预测 云南施甸地震 SAM分析
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Correlation between movement of tectonicblocks and earthquakes in groups 被引量:12
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作者 范俊喜 马瑾 +1 位作者 刁桂苓 单新建 《地震学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2001年第5期514-522,共9页
The Chinese mainland is divided into some tectonic blocks by nearly NE- and EW-orientated faults. Meanwhile strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland usually cluster in time and space. We call earthquakes in groups. ... The Chinese mainland is divided into some tectonic blocks by nearly NE- and EW-orientated faults. Meanwhile strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland usually cluster in time and space. We call earthquakes in groups. Tectonic blocks separated by faults and earthquakes in groups are prominent features of the tectonics of the Chi-nese mainland. Correlation between movement of tectonic blocks and groups of earthquakes is discussed in this paper. The results show that earthquakes in groups often occurred at one or several block boundary faults. The released elastic strain energy is built up in the same periods and around blocks. It means that strong earthquakes in groups are mainly caused by movement of blocks. Four types of block movement are identified based ongroup earthquakes: movement along a single boundary of a block (or a combined blocks), movement of a single block, movement of multi-blocks, and movement in block interiors. If we consider distribution of all strong earthquakes occurred in the Chinese mainland, the movement along a single boundary of a block is more popular one inducing strong earthquakes. But if we only consider earthquakes in groups rather than single earthquakesthe movement of a block dominates among four modes. Statistics with respect to group earthquakes show that the Taihangshan mountain and the North China block are much active in the eastern part of Chinese mainland, and in western part of Chinese mainland the active blocks are Sichuan-Yunnan and the Kunlun-Songpan ones. 展开更多
关键词 成组地震 地块活动方式 中国大陆 地震构造 地震活动 断层
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Research in historical earthquakes in the Korean peninsula and its circumferential regions 被引量:1
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作者 翟文杰 吴戈 韩绍欣 《地震学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2004年第3期334-339,共6页
关键词 朝鲜半岛 历史地震 地震参数
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Quantitative data about active tectonics and possible locations of strong earthquakes in the future in the northwestern Beijing 被引量:20
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作者 冉勇康 陈立春 徐锡伟 《地震学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2001年第5期502-513,共12页
Deterministic, probabilistic and composite-grading methods are used to get the possible locations of strong earth-quakes in the future in Norwest Beijing and its vicinity based on the quantitative data and their accur... Deterministic, probabilistic and composite-grading methods are used to get the possible locations of strong earth-quakes in the future in Norwest Beijing and its vicinity based on the quantitative data and their accuracy about active tectonics in the research area and by ordering, some questions in the results are also discussed. It shows that the most dangerous fault segments for strong earthquakes in the future include: segments B and A of the southern boundary fault of the Yangyuan basin, the southern boundary fault of the Xuanhua basin, the east segment of the southern Huaian fault and the east segment of the northern YanggaoTianzhen fault. The most dangerous area is YangyuanShenjing basin, the second one is TianzhenHuaianXuanhua basin and the third dangerous areas are WanquanZhangjiakou and northeast of Yuxian to southwest of Fanshan. 展开更多
关键词 北京 活动构造定量资料 综合方法 强震地点 确定性方法 概率方法
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Study on the correlativity of earthquakes impact on cities 被引量:2
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作者 潘华 赵凤新 高孟潭 《地震学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2004年第3期330-333,共4页
关键词 城市群 地震影响 同步影响率 相关性
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Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes 被引量:3
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作者 王丽凤 马丽 +1 位作者 DavidVere-Jones 陈时军 《地震学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2004年第2期162-173,共12页
Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of severa... Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 随机AMR模型 参数估计 最大似然法 AIC准则 强震 地震预报 地震活动
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THE MEASUREMENT ON VISCOSITY Q VALUE USINGP-WAVE OF LOCAL EARTHQUAKESIN WESTERN YUNNAN PROVINCE 滇西地区近震(?)波的粘性 Q_α值测定
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作者 杜志俊 《地震研究》 CSCD 北大核心 1989年第1期81-90,共10页
本文使用云南滇西地区、红河断裂带北段1984——1985年由PDR-2数字事件记录仪记录到的84张地震记录图,按文献〔4〕中所述的理论和方法,用直达(?)波资料计算了该区的分区粘性多Q_α值,初步结论是:整个场区内介质粘弹性可用非线性体去近... 本文使用云南滇西地区、红河断裂带北段1984——1985年由PDR-2数字事件记录仪记录到的84张地震记录图,按文献〔4〕中所述的理论和方法,用直达(?)波资料计算了该区的分区粘性多Q_α值,初步结论是:整个场区内介质粘弹性可用非线性体去近似模拟。Q_α值分布情况为:由云龙、洱源、漾濞三点所成的三角区内,其值约为50±30左右较低,而沿弥渡向北,经下关至剑川所示的整个断裂带上所测Q_α值较高,约在160±30左右。反映了明显的构造差异性。 展开更多
关键词 P波 Qα值 地震预报 红河 断裂带
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Centrifuge modeling of dynamic behavior of pile-reinforced slopes during earthquakes 被引量:5
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作者 于玉贞 邓丽军 +1 位作者 孙逊 吕禾 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2010年第5期1070-1078,共9页
A series of centrifuge model tests of sandy slopes were conducted to study the dynamic behavior of pile-reinforced slopes subjected to various motions.Time histories of accelerations,bending moments and pile earth pre... A series of centrifuge model tests of sandy slopes were conducted to study the dynamic behavior of pile-reinforced slopes subjected to various motions.Time histories of accelerations,bending moments and pile earth pressures were obtained during excitation of the adjusted El Centro earthquake and a cyclic motion.Under a realistic earthquake,the overall response of the pile-reinforced slope is lower than that of the non-reinforced slope.The histories of bending moments and dynamic earth pressures reach their maximums soon after shaking started and then remain roughly stable until the end of shaking.Maximum moments occur at the height of 3.5 m,which is the deeper section of the pile,indicating the interface between the active loading and passive resistance regions.The dynamic earth pressures above the slope base steadily increase with the increase of height of pile.For the model under cyclic input motion,response amplitudes at different locations in the slope are almost the same,indicating no significant response amplification.Both the bending moment and earth pressure increase gradually over a long period. 展开更多
关键词 earthquakE SLOPE stabilizing pile dynamic behavior centrifuge modeling earth pressure ACCELERATION bending moment
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Performance of viscous fluid dampers coupling adjacent inelastic structures under near-fault earthquakes 被引量:1
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作者 阁东东 朱宏平 +1 位作者 张俊兵 陈晓强 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2010年第6期1336-1343,共8页
The behavior of viscous fluid damper applied in coupling structures subjected to near-fault earthquake was studied.The structural nonlinearity was characterized by Bouc-Wen model and several near-fault ground motions ... The behavior of viscous fluid damper applied in coupling structures subjected to near-fault earthquake was studied.The structural nonlinearity was characterized by Bouc-Wen model and several near-fault ground motions were simulated by the combination of a recorded earthquake(background ground motion) with equivalent velocity pulses that possess near-fault features.Extensive parametric studies were carried out to find the appropriate damping coefficient.Performances of viscous fluid dampers were demonstrated by the relationship between the force and displacement,the maximal damper force and stroke.The control performances were demonstrated in terms of the response reductions of adjacent structures.The results show that the dynamic responses of adjacent structures are mitigated greatly.Proper damping coefficients of connecting fluid dampers have a small difference,while adjacent structures under different near-fault ground motions with the same peak acceleration.The maximum force of damper is about 0.8 MN,and the maximum damper stroke is about ±550 mm.Satisfied viscous fluid dampers can be produced according to the current manufacturing skills. 展开更多
关键词 nonlinear viscous fluid DAMPER adjacent structure near-fault earthquake seismic response
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Does the Analysis of Earthquakes Insure a Better Risk Prevention to Occur?
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作者 Romain Bruno Desport 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第S1期44-44,共1页
One day,can we foresee earthquakes? This question always comes back from every telluric disaster,and the seismology is well annoyed to answer it.The destructtion of the city of Kobe in Japan,on January 17th 1995,arous... One day,can we foresee earthquakes? This question always comes back from every telluric disaster,and the seismology is well annoyed to answer it.The destructtion of the city of Kobe in Japan,on January 17th 1995,aroused deep debates upon the research policy on earthquakes.This disaster obviously shows our well limited capacity to take up the challenge of the prediction of earthquakes because,finally,it is indeed in Japan where authorities invest most in 展开更多
关键词 GEOHAZARDS earthquakes prevision prediction RISK solution
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Inundation Studies Along the East Coast of India due to Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in North-Andaman and Car Nicobar Subduction zone
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作者 R.Krishna Kumar Kirti Srivastava +1 位作者 V.Swaroopa Rani V.P.Dimri 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第S1期65-65,共1页
The Sumatra-Andaman arc is an active subduction zone and had generated several destructive Tsunamis in the past.In this paper we have analyzed two historical Tsunamigenic earthquakes from this region. One of the histo... The Sumatra-Andaman arc is an active subduction zone and had generated several destructive Tsunamis in the past.In this paper we have analyzed two historical Tsunamigenic earthquakes from this region. One of the historical earthquake is the earthquake of 26th June 1941 in the North Andaman region,which was one of the strongest in the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal of magnitude M_w=7.7.This earthquake had triggered tsunami which affected the east coast of India.The other is the earthquake in Car Nicobar region on 31 st December 1881 of magnitude M_w=7.9. This submarine earthquake beneath the 展开更多
关键词 INUNDATION tsunamigenic earthquakes TSUNAMI wave propagation run-ups
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Seismicity in the Bengal Basin:Threat for Future Massive Earthquakes
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作者 Eahsanul Haque Akm 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第S1期46-46,共1页
The 26 December 2004 earthquake off Sumatra coast focused world attention on the Sunda arc subduction zone.Bangladesh is along the strike of and within a rupture-distance from that enormous M-9.3 earthquake. This coun... The 26 December 2004 earthquake off Sumatra coast focused world attention on the Sunda arc subduction zone.Bangladesh is along the strike of and within a rupture-distance from that enormous M-9.3 earthquake. This country is situated where the India-Sunda subduction zone rises from oceanic depths to subaerial exposure as a result of incipient continent collision where the trench meets the huge sediment 展开更多
关键词 earthquake delta basin SUBDUCTION zone SEISMICITY plate boundary ACCRETIONARY PRISM
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Stress-Deformed State of Geological Environment and Prognosis of Antropogenic-Tectonic Earthquakes
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作者 Svitlana Demianets 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第S1期63-63,共1页
The highest priorities of any civilized country are in providing interests of social safety.The anthropogenic influence on geological environment is becoming greater because of the human activities increase. That’s w... The highest priorities of any civilized country are in providing interests of social safety.The anthropogenic influence on geological environment is becoming greater because of the human activities increase. That’s why anthropogenic-tectonic earthquake problem has become important recently.It appeared as a hypothesis in the 30 s and became much clearer in 60 s.The anthropogenic-tectonic earthquake epiceneters are located not far from the surface and,as a rule。 展开更多
关键词 stress-deformed STATE geoisostasy anthropogenic-tectonic earthquakes PROGNOSIS fault-block models Earth
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A Statistical Study on Seismo-Ionospheric Anomalies of the Total Electron Content for the Period of 56 M≥6.0 Earthquakes Occurring in China During 1998—2012 被引量:7
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作者 Liu J Y Chen C H +1 位作者 Tsai H F Le H 《空间科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2013年第3期258-269,共12页
This paper reports statistical results of Seismo-Ionospheric Anomalies(SIAs) of the Total Electron Content(TEC) in the Global Ionosphere Map(GIM) associated with 56 M≥6.0 earthquakes in China during 1998—2012.To det... This paper reports statistical results of Seismo-Ionospheric Anomalies(SIAs) of the Total Electron Content(TEC) in the Global Ionosphere Map(GIM) associated with 56 M≥6.0 earthquakes in China during 1998—2012.To detect SIA,a quartile-based(i.e.median-based) process is performed.TEC anomalies for the period of earthquakes without being led by magnetic storms about 10 days are further isolated and examined to confirm the SIP existence.Results show that SIA is the TEC significantly decrease in the afternoon period 2—9 days before the earthquakes in China,which is in a good agreement with the SIA appearing before the 12 May 2008 M 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. 展开更多
关键词 电离层异常 地震发生 总电子含量 中国 统计 SIAS TEC GIM
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Discrimination between nuclear explosions and earthquakes based on consideration of tectonic ambient shear stress values 被引量:2
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作者 陈培善 成瑾 白彤霞 《地震学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2001年第3期246-249,共4页
On the basis of fracture mechanics earthquake rupture model, the relations between source parameters and (0, the value of tectonic ambient shear stress in the place where the earthquake occurs, have been derived. Thus... On the basis of fracture mechanics earthquake rupture model, the relations between source parameters and (0, the value of tectonic ambient shear stress in the place where the earthquake occurs, have been derived. Thus, we can calculate a large number of values of tectonic ambient shear stress or values of background stress in the place where the earthquake occurs. If nuclear explosions are treated as earthquakes in the calculation, we find that (0 values of nuclear explosions have about 20 MPa, which is obviously higher than average (0 values of earthquakes with the same magnitude. This result can be used to discriminate nuclear explosions from earthquakes. 展开更多
关键词 构造环境剪应力场 地震 核爆炸 应力场水平 震源参数
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THE ANALYSIS OF REMOTE SENSING IMAGES FOR ACTIVE FAULTS AND EARTHQUAKES IN CHINA
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作者 Zhang Shiliang (Institute of Geology, State Seismological Bureau) 《遥感信息》 CSCD 1990年第A02期7-8,共2页
The Landsat image information has recently been widely applied to structural geology, especially to the analysis of lineaments, owing to their macroscopic, visual and comprehensive features. The images will be more ef... The Landsat image information has recently been widely applied to structural geology, especially to the analysis of lineaments, owing to their macroscopic, visual and comprehensive features. The images will be more effective when applied to the interpretation of active faults. Active faults are widely ditributed in China. Much attention has been paid to the study of active faults both in China and abroad. There is certain controversy concerning the implication of the term "active fault". Strictly speaking, the term should refer only to the faults that are still active in the present day. However, the term also usually refers to the faults which have been active continually or intermittently from the Quaternary (or the end of Tertiary) to the present day. We propose that the tones and the configurations of features on Landsat images are the principal keys to the interpretation of active faults. The faults, which display the most prominent 展开更多
关键词 NNE THE ANALYSIS OF REMOTE SENSING IMAGES FOR ACTIVE FAULTS AND earthquakes IN CHINA
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基于现场调查的2025西藏定日M_(S)6.8地震房屋震害与人员伤亡分析 被引量:9
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作者 魏本勇 张钰曼 +3 位作者 石峰 乔俊香 王鑫 张达 《地震地质》 北大核心 2025年第1期64-79,共16页
2025年1月7日9时5分,西藏南部日喀则市定日县发生6.8级地震。此次地震已造成126人遇难,188人受伤,大量房屋倒塌。根据现场调查,土木结构房屋是此次地震中受影响最大,破坏最严重的房屋类型。地震遇难者集中分布于震中附近的定日县长所乡... 2025年1月7日9时5分,西藏南部日喀则市定日县发生6.8级地震。此次地震已造成126人遇难,188人受伤,大量房屋倒塌。根据现场调查,土木结构房屋是此次地震中受影响最大,破坏最严重的房屋类型。地震遇难者集中分布于震中附近的定日县长所乡、措果乡和曲洛乡,其中长所乡受灾最为严重,遇难人数占总遇难人数的74.60%。地震破坏力强、村落临近发震断层、房屋建筑抗震性能低、高人员在室率及低温缺氧等是造成此次地震人员伤亡高的主要原因。基于人员伤亡原因分析和现场调查,文中从加强活动断层探测、提升地震预警能力、降低传统民居震害风险、夯实应急保障措施、防范地震次生灾害风险及加强风险意识宣传教育等6个方面,提出了针对性地降低西藏地区震害风险、减少人员伤亡的对策建议,以期为当地防震减灾能力提升和灾后恢复重建提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 定日M_(S)6.8地震 震害分析 人员伤亡 西藏
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2022年青海门源M_(S)6.9和四川泸定M_(S)6.8地震震中的精准判定及思考 被引量:1
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作者 祝意青 赵云峰 +2 位作者 隗寿春 张国庆 刘芳 《地震地质》 北大核心 2025年第1期235-245,共11页
2022年中国南北地震带先后发生青海门源M_(S)6.9和四川泸定M_(S)6.8地震,2次地震均造成严重的财产损失,后者还造成100多人伤亡与失联。这2次地震前,中国地震局在南北地震带开展过多期地表重力观测,观测到震中区域地表重力正、负变化交... 2022年中国南北地震带先后发生青海门源M_(S)6.9和四川泸定M_(S)6.8地震,2次地震均造成严重的财产损失,后者还造成100多人伤亡与失联。这2次地震前,中国地震局在南北地震带开展过多期地表重力观测,观测到震中区域地表重力正、负变化交替出现,呈现出的显著重力异常变化具有四象限分布特征。文中回顾了对这2次地震成功的中期预测和预测依据,2次地震的实际震中与2022年度的预测地震危险区中心距离均≤56km,尤其是2021年度对震中位置的精准判定,实际震中与预测震中距离均≤10km。流动重力测量是探索地震预测的主要观测手段,建立高密度的原子重力仪绝对重力观测网络或具有良好绝对重力控制的相对重力观测网络,开展密集的强化监测,有可能揭示高风险区震中附近的地下结构分布特征,提取强震、大地震孕育过程中震源变化伴随的绝对重力变化信号,发展其地震短临预测应用与研究。 展开更多
关键词 门源地震 泸定地震 重力变化 构造活动 中期预测
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世界强震动数据中心发展现状与展望 被引量:1
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作者 解全才 马强 +3 位作者 钱亮 陶冬旺 王江 娄良琼 《世界地震工程》 北大核心 2025年第1期1-13,共13页
近年来,全球主要地震多发国家加大了强震动观测台网的建设,布设的数字强震仪和烈度仪等数量显著增加,获取的强震动记录迅速增长。各国或地区建立了不同的强震动数据库、例如美国的NGA数据库、CEMSD数据库、欧洲的ESM数据库、法国IPGP数... 近年来,全球主要地震多发国家加大了强震动观测台网的建设,布设的数字强震仪和烈度仪等数量显著增加,获取的强震动记录迅速增长。各国或地区建立了不同的强震动数据库、例如美国的NGA数据库、CEMSD数据库、欧洲的ESM数据库、法国IPGP数据库、意大利ITACA数据库、日本NIED数据库和新西兰GeoNet数据库等。基于第18届世界地震工程大会(18WCEE)探索世界地震数据中心专题及相关文献,详细梳理了各个国家和地区强震动数据中心的台网建设、数据处理、数据共享及数据应用方面的研究现状;通过与国外强震动数据中心的对比分析,找出我国强震动数据中心发展存在的差距,指出我国未来需要重视的工作和深入研究解决的问题。 展开更多
关键词 18届世界地震工程大会 地震数据中心 强震动数据 数据处理 数据共享
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