It is important to revisit our plans and compare what was ideally targeted against what was actually achieved in implementation. In comparing the achievements with targets, strengths or weaknesses of established strat...It is important to revisit our plans and compare what was ideally targeted against what was actually achieved in implementation. In comparing the achievements with targets, strengths or weaknesses of established strategies can be accepted or corrections implemented since a plan also outlines some strategies for achieving the targets set. In this study, achievements in production and export of industrial forest products, i.e., sawn wood, plywood, chipboard and fibreboard, paper and paperboard and industrial round wood, are compared against targeted figures for 1996 for Tanzania. Discrepancies were obtained by subtracting targeted from achieved values and expressed both as absolute and relative differences in terms of the targeted values, with a negative sign for pro- duction where achievements were less than targets and a positive sign when achievements were higher than targets. Values achieved ranged from 4%-100% of the targeted values, depending on the product, and were only higher than the targeted value for industrial round wood. Possible causes of the discrepancies are inefficiency of parastatal companies, low private investment, sub-maximal in- dustrial operation and plant inefficiencies. Discrepancies could also result from unrealistic data used in planning due to difficulty in data availability and poor intra- and inter-sectoral coordination. The implications of these discrepancies are low contributions of the wood-based industry to the national economy, increased import substitution of wood-based products, increased socio-economic and environmental degradation and decreased integrity in planning and policy making.展开更多
Proper matching of forestry machinery is important when raising mechanization levels for forestry production. In the matching process, forestry machinery needs not only expertise, but also improved methods for solving...Proper matching of forestry machinery is important when raising mechanization levels for forestry production. In the matching process, forestry machinery needs not only expertise, but also improved methods for solving problems. I propose combination of case-based reasoning （CBR） and rule-based reasoning （RBR） by calculating the similarity of quantitative parameters of various forestry machines in an analytical and hierarchical process. I calculated the similarity of machin-ery used in forest industries to enable better selection and matching of equipment. I propose a weight-value adjusting method based on sums of squares of deviations in which the individual parameter weights were modified in the process of application. During the process of system design, I put forward a design method knowledge base and generated a dynamic web reasoning framework to integrate the processes of forest industry machinery selection and weight-value adjustment. This enables expansion of the scope of the complete system and enhancement of the reasoning efficiency. I demonstrate the validity and practicability of this method using a practical example.展开更多
This study aims at exploring the technical efficiency of lum- ber industry in northwestern Ontario, Canada using data envelopment analysis （DEA）. The DEA model analyzes relative technical efficiency of lumber mills ...This study aims at exploring the technical efficiency of lum- ber industry in northwestern Ontario, Canada using data envelopment analysis （DEA）. The DEA model analyzes relative technical efficiency of lumber mills with disproportionate inputs and outputs by dividing the 10- year time series data, for inputs and outputs of 24 lumber mills, over two periods （1999-2003 and 2004-2008）. Four inputs, namely, material （log volume）, labour （man-hours）, two types of energy （hog-fuel and electric- ity）, and one output （lumber volume） are used in this study. The trend analysis shows an annual reduction of 10%, 13% and 13% for lumber output, log consumption （input） and number of employees, respectively, during the period 1999-2008. The results from DEA with two scenarios with energy inputs and without energy inputs, for the two periods are found to be mixed and interesting. While some mills have improved their performance in terms of best use of available scarce inputs in the second period, some have shown negative per cent change in efficiency. In the with energy input and the without energy input scenario, some of the mills show a reduction in efficiency in the second period from the first period, with the highest estimated reductions of-13.9% and -47.6%, respectively. A possible explanation for these negative performances of mills in the latter period is the decline in production in the second period compared to the first period, where these mills were not able to adjust their inputs （mostly labour） as proportional lay-offs might not have been possible. These results provide policy makers and industry stakeholders with an improved understanding of the trends of efficiency and employ- ment as well as reallocation opportunities of future inputs in order to increase benefits from this sector.展开更多
文摘It is important to revisit our plans and compare what was ideally targeted against what was actually achieved in implementation. In comparing the achievements with targets, strengths or weaknesses of established strategies can be accepted or corrections implemented since a plan also outlines some strategies for achieving the targets set. In this study, achievements in production and export of industrial forest products, i.e., sawn wood, plywood, chipboard and fibreboard, paper and paperboard and industrial round wood, are compared against targeted figures for 1996 for Tanzania. Discrepancies were obtained by subtracting targeted from achieved values and expressed both as absolute and relative differences in terms of the targeted values, with a negative sign for pro- duction where achievements were less than targets and a positive sign when achievements were higher than targets. Values achieved ranged from 4%-100% of the targeted values, depending on the product, and were only higher than the targeted value for industrial round wood. Possible causes of the discrepancies are inefficiency of parastatal companies, low private investment, sub-maximal in- dustrial operation and plant inefficiencies. Discrepancies could also result from unrealistic data used in planning due to difficulty in data availability and poor intra- and inter-sectoral coordination. The implications of these discrepancies are low contributions of the wood-based industry to the national economy, increased import substitution of wood-based products, increased socio-economic and environmental degradation and decreased integrity in planning and policy making.
基金financially supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities Nos.DL12EB01-03the planning subject of "the Twelfth Five-Year-Plan" in National Science and Technology Nos.2012AA102003-2Heilongjiang Natural Science Fund in China Nos.F201116
文摘Proper matching of forestry machinery is important when raising mechanization levels for forestry production. In the matching process, forestry machinery needs not only expertise, but also improved methods for solving problems. I propose combination of case-based reasoning （CBR） and rule-based reasoning （RBR） by calculating the similarity of quantitative parameters of various forestry machines in an analytical and hierarchical process. I calculated the similarity of machin-ery used in forest industries to enable better selection and matching of equipment. I propose a weight-value adjusting method based on sums of squares of deviations in which the individual parameter weights were modified in the process of application. During the process of system design, I put forward a design method knowledge base and generated a dynamic web reasoning framework to integrate the processes of forest industry machinery selection and weight-value adjustment. This enables expansion of the scope of the complete system and enhancement of the reasoning efficiency. I demonstrate the validity and practicability of this method using a practical example.
基金a part of broad project,‘Lakehead University-FPInnovations- Forintek Division:Partnership Development
文摘This study aims at exploring the technical efficiency of lum- ber industry in northwestern Ontario, Canada using data envelopment analysis （DEA）. The DEA model analyzes relative technical efficiency of lumber mills with disproportionate inputs and outputs by dividing the 10- year time series data, for inputs and outputs of 24 lumber mills, over two periods （1999-2003 and 2004-2008）. Four inputs, namely, material （log volume）, labour （man-hours）, two types of energy （hog-fuel and electric- ity）, and one output （lumber volume） are used in this study. The trend analysis shows an annual reduction of 10%, 13% and 13% for lumber output, log consumption （input） and number of employees, respectively, during the period 1999-2008. The results from DEA with two scenarios with energy inputs and without energy inputs, for the two periods are found to be mixed and interesting. While some mills have improved their performance in terms of best use of available scarce inputs in the second period, some have shown negative per cent change in efficiency. In the with energy input and the without energy input scenario, some of the mills show a reduction in efficiency in the second period from the first period, with the highest estimated reductions of-13.9% and -47.6%, respectively. A possible explanation for these negative performances of mills in the latter period is the decline in production in the second period compared to the first period, where these mills were not able to adjust their inputs （mostly labour） as proportional lay-offs might not have been possible. These results provide policy makers and industry stakeholders with an improved understanding of the trends of efficiency and employ- ment as well as reallocation opportunities of future inputs in order to increase benefits from this sector.
