Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation c...Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation can ensure the safety of photovoltaic grids and improve the utilization efficiency of the solar energy systems.In the study,a new decomposition-boosting model using artificial intelligence is proposed to realize the solar radiation multi-step prediction.The proposed model includes four parts:signal decomposition(EWT),neural network(NARX),Adaboost and ARIMA.Three real solar radiation datasets from Changde,China were used to validate the efficiency of the proposed model.To verify the robustness of the multi-step prediction model,this experiment compared nine models and made 1,3,and 5 steps ahead predictions for the time series.It is verified that the proposed model has the best performance among all models.展开更多
An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited i...An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.展开更多
Due to the nonlinearity and nonstationary of hydropower market data, a novel hybrid learning paradigm is proposed to predict hydropower consumption, by incorporating firefly algorithm （FA） into least square support ...Due to the nonlinearity and nonstationary of hydropower market data, a novel hybrid learning paradigm is proposed to predict hydropower consumption, by incorporating firefly algorithm （FA） into least square support vector regression （LSSVR）, i.e., FA-based LSSVR model. In the novel model, the powerful and effective artificial intelligence （AI） technique, i.e., LSSVR, is employed to forecast hydropower consumption. Furthermore, a promising AI optimization tool, i.e., FA, is espe- cially introduced to address the crucial but difficult task of parameters determination in LSSVR （e.g., hyper and kernel function parameters）. With the Chinese hydropower consumption as sample data, the empirical study has statistically confirmed the superiority of the novel FA-based LSSVR model to other benchmark models （including existing popular traditional econometric models, AI models and similar hybrid LSSVRs with other popular parameter searching tools）~ in terms of level and direc- tional accuracy. The empirical results also imply that the hybrid FA-based LSSVR learning paradigm with powerful forecasting tool and parameters optimization method can be employed as an effective forecasting tool for not only hydropower consumption but also other complex data.展开更多
基金Project(2020TJ-Q06)supported by Hunan Provincial Science&Technology Talent Support,ChinaProject(KQ1707017)supported by the Changsha Science&Technology,ChinaProject(2019CX005)supported by the Innovation Driven Project of the Central South University,China。
文摘Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation can ensure the safety of photovoltaic grids and improve the utilization efficiency of the solar energy systems.In the study,a new decomposition-boosting model using artificial intelligence is proposed to realize the solar radiation multi-step prediction.The proposed model includes four parts:signal decomposition(EWT),neural network(NARX),Adaboost and ARIMA.Three real solar radiation datasets from Changde,China were used to validate the efficiency of the proposed model.To verify the robustness of the multi-step prediction model,this experiment compared nine models and made 1,3,and 5 steps ahead predictions for the time series.It is verified that the proposed model has the best performance among all models.
基金Project(51606225) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2016JJ2144) supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(502221703) supported by Graduate Independent Explorative Innovation Foundation of Central South University,China
文摘An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.
基金supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars under Grant No.71025005the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.91224001 and 71301006+1 种基金National Program for Support of Top-Notch Young Professionalsthe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in BUCT
文摘Due to the nonlinearity and nonstationary of hydropower market data, a novel hybrid learning paradigm is proposed to predict hydropower consumption, by incorporating firefly algorithm （FA） into least square support vector regression （LSSVR）, i.e., FA-based LSSVR model. In the novel model, the powerful and effective artificial intelligence （AI） technique, i.e., LSSVR, is employed to forecast hydropower consumption. Furthermore, a promising AI optimization tool, i.e., FA, is espe- cially introduced to address the crucial but difficult task of parameters determination in LSSVR （e.g., hyper and kernel function parameters）. With the Chinese hydropower consumption as sample data, the empirical study has statistically confirmed the superiority of the novel FA-based LSSVR model to other benchmark models （including existing popular traditional econometric models, AI models and similar hybrid LSSVRs with other popular parameter searching tools）~ in terms of level and direc- tional accuracy. The empirical results also imply that the hybrid FA-based LSSVR learning paradigm with powerful forecasting tool and parameters optimization method can be employed as an effective forecasting tool for not only hydropower consumption but also other complex data.
