In grey system theory,the studies in the field of grey prediction model are focused on real number sequences,rather than grey number ones.Hereby,a prediction model based on interval grey number sequences is proposed.B...In grey system theory,the studies in the field of grey prediction model are focused on real number sequences,rather than grey number ones.Hereby,a prediction model based on interval grey number sequences is proposed.By mining the geometric features of interval grey number sequences on a two-dimensional surface,all the interval grey numbers are converted into real numbers by means of certain algorithm,and then the prediction model is established based on those real number sequences.The entire process avoids the algebraic operations of grey number,and the prediction problem of interval grey number is usefully solved.Ultimately,through an example＇s program simulation,the validity and practicability of this novel model are verified.展开更多
对未来R&D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要组成部分.提出一种定量分析预测方法———利用多变量灰色MGM(1,n)模型(mu lti-variab le grey model),研究R&D投入与GDP所形成的复杂系统变量之间的相...对未来R&D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要组成部分.提出一种定量分析预测方法———利用多变量灰色MGM(1,n)模型(mu lti-variab le grey model),研究R&D投入与GDP所形成的复杂系统变量之间的相互影响关系,对天津市相关数据资料进行实证分析与中长期预测,为政府相关部门制订科学的科技发展规划提供有益的指导作用.展开更多
The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to elimin...The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to eliminate the random fluctuations or errors of the observational data of all variables, and the combined prediction model together with the multiple linear regression is established in order to improve the simulation and prediction accuracy of the combined model. Finally, a combined model of the MGM（1,2） with optimized background value and the binary linear regression is constructed by an example. The results show that the model has good effects for simulation and prediction.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(7084001290924022)the Ph.D.Thesis Innovation and Excellent Foundation of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics(2010)
文摘In grey system theory,the studies in the field of grey prediction model are focused on real number sequences,rather than grey number ones.Hereby,a prediction model based on interval grey number sequences is proposed.By mining the geometric features of interval grey number sequences on a two-dimensional surface,all the interval grey numbers are converted into real numbers by means of certain algorithm,and then the prediction model is established based on those real number sequences.The entire process avoids the algebraic operations of grey number,and the prediction problem of interval grey number is usefully solved.Ultimately,through an example＇s program simulation,the validity and practicability of this novel model are verified.
文摘对未来R&D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要组成部分.提出一种定量分析预测方法———利用多变量灰色MGM(1,n)模型(mu lti-variab le grey model),研究R&D投入与GDP所形成的复杂系统变量之间的相互影响关系,对天津市相关数据资料进行实证分析与中长期预测,为政府相关部门制订科学的科技发展规划提供有益的指导作用.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71071077)the Ministry of Education Key Project of National Educational Science Planning(DFA090215)+1 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(20100481137)Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education(CXZZ11-0226)
文摘The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to eliminate the random fluctuations or errors of the observational data of all variables, and the combined prediction model together with the multiple linear regression is established in order to improve the simulation and prediction accuracy of the combined model. Finally, a combined model of the MGM（1,2） with optimized background value and the binary linear regression is constructed by an example. The results show that the model has good effects for simulation and prediction.
