To solve the problem of risk identification and quantitative assessment for human-computer interaction(HCI)in complex avionics systems,an HCI safety analysis framework based on system-theoretical process analysis(STPA...To solve the problem of risk identification and quantitative assessment for human-computer interaction(HCI)in complex avionics systems,an HCI safety analysis framework based on system-theoretical process analysis(STPA)and cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)is proposed.STPACREAM can identify unsafe control actions and find the causal path during the interaction of avionics systems and pilot with the help of formal verification tools automatically.The common performance conditions(CPC)of avionics systems in the aviation environment is established and a quantitative analysis of human failure is carried out.Taking the head-up display(HUD)system interaction process as an example,a case analysis is carried out,the layered safety control structure and formal model of the HUD interaction process are established.For the interactive behavior“Pilots approaching with HUD”,four unsafe control actions and35 causal scenarios are identified and the impact of common performance conditions at different levels on the pilot decision model are analyzed.The results show that HUD's HCI level gradually improves as the scores of CPC increase,and the quality of crew member cooperation and time sufficiency of the task is the key to its HCI.Through case analysis,it is shown that STPACREAM can quantitatively assess the hazards in HCI and identify the key factors that impact safety.展开更多
Social interaction with peer pressure is widely studied in social network analysis.Game theory can be utilized to model dynamic social interaction,and one class of game network models assumes that people’s decision p...Social interaction with peer pressure is widely studied in social network analysis.Game theory can be utilized to model dynamic social interaction,and one class of game network models assumes that people’s decision payoff functions hinge on individual covariates and the choices of their friends.However,peer pressure would be misidentified and induce a non-negligible bias when incomplete covariates are involved in the game model.For this reason,we develop a generalized constant peer effects model based on homogeneity structure in dynamic social networks.The new model can effectively avoid bias through homogeneity pursuit and can be applied to a wider range of scenarios.To estimate peer pressure in the model,we first present two algorithms based on the initialize expand merge method and the polynomial-time twostage method to estimate homogeneity parameters.Then we apply the nested pseudo-likelihood method and obtain consistent estimators of peer pressure.Simulation evaluations show that our proposed methodology can achieve desirable and effective results in terms of the community misclassification rate and parameter estimation error.We also illustrate the advantages of our model in the empirical analysis when compared with a benchmark model.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFB1600601)the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Civil Aviation Administration of China(U1933106)+2 种基金the Scientific Research Project of Tianjin Educational Committee(2019KJ134)the Natural Science Foundation of TianjinIntelligent Civil Aviation Program(21JCQNJ C00900)。
文摘To solve the problem of risk identification and quantitative assessment for human-computer interaction(HCI)in complex avionics systems,an HCI safety analysis framework based on system-theoretical process analysis(STPA)and cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)is proposed.STPACREAM can identify unsafe control actions and find the causal path during the interaction of avionics systems and pilot with the help of formal verification tools automatically.The common performance conditions(CPC)of avionics systems in the aviation environment is established and a quantitative analysis of human failure is carried out.Taking the head-up display(HUD)system interaction process as an example,a case analysis is carried out,the layered safety control structure and formal model of the HUD interaction process are established.For the interactive behavior“Pilots approaching with HUD”,four unsafe control actions and35 causal scenarios are identified and the impact of common performance conditions at different levels on the pilot decision model are analyzed.The results show that HUD's HCI level gradually improves as the scores of CPC increase,and the quality of crew member cooperation and time sufficiency of the task is the key to its HCI.Through case analysis,it is shown that STPACREAM can quantitatively assess the hazards in HCI and identify the key factors that impact safety.
基金supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(71771201,72531009,71973001)the USTC Research Funds of the Double First-Class Initiative(FSSF-A-240202).
文摘Social interaction with peer pressure is widely studied in social network analysis.Game theory can be utilized to model dynamic social interaction,and one class of game network models assumes that people’s decision payoff functions hinge on individual covariates and the choices of their friends.However,peer pressure would be misidentified and induce a non-negligible bias when incomplete covariates are involved in the game model.For this reason,we develop a generalized constant peer effects model based on homogeneity structure in dynamic social networks.The new model can effectively avoid bias through homogeneity pursuit and can be applied to a wider range of scenarios.To estimate peer pressure in the model,we first present two algorithms based on the initialize expand merge method and the polynomial-time twostage method to estimate homogeneity parameters.Then we apply the nested pseudo-likelihood method and obtain consistent estimators of peer pressure.Simulation evaluations show that our proposed methodology can achieve desirable and effective results in terms of the community misclassification rate and parameter estimation error.We also illustrate the advantages of our model in the empirical analysis when compared with a benchmark model.
