Recently, high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missiles in the boost phase has become a research hotspot. This paper proposes a trajectory prediction algorithm driven by data and knowledge(DKTP) to solve ...Recently, high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missiles in the boost phase has become a research hotspot. This paper proposes a trajectory prediction algorithm driven by data and knowledge(DKTP) to solve this problem. Firstly, the complex dynamics characteristics of ballistic missile in the boost phase are analyzed in detail. Secondly, combining the missile dynamics model with the target gravity turning model, a knowledge-driven target three-dimensional turning(T3) model is derived. Then, the BP neural network is used to train the boost phase trajectory database in typical scenarios to obtain a datadriven state parameter mapping(SPM) model. On this basis, an online trajectory prediction framework driven by data and knowledge is established. Based on the SPM model, the three-dimensional turning coefficients of the target are predicted by using the current state of the target, and the state of the target at the next moment is obtained by combining the T3 model. Finally, simulation verification is carried out under various conditions. The simulation results show that the DKTP algorithm combines the advantages of data-driven and knowledge-driven, improves the interpretability of the algorithm, reduces the uncertainty, which can achieve high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missile in the boost phase.展开更多
A conditional boost-phase trajectory estimation method based on ballistic missile （BM） information database and classification is developed to estimate and predict boos-phase BM trajectory. The main uncertain factor...A conditional boost-phase trajectory estimation method based on ballistic missile （BM） information database and classification is developed to estimate and predict boos-phase BM trajectory. The main uncertain factors to describe BM dynamics equation are reduced to the control law of trajectory pitch angle in boost-phase. After the BM mass at the beginning of estimation, the BM attack angle and the modification of engine thrust denoting BM acceleration are modeled reasonably, the boost-phase BM trajectory estimation with ground based radar is well realized. The validity of this estimation method is testified by computer simulation with a typical example.展开更多
Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon...Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon seasons appears and continues,airlines operating in threatened areas and passengers having travel plans during this time period will pay close attention to the development of tropical storms.This paper proposes a deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model that can improve the reliability of typhoon trajectory prediction and reduce the quantity of flight scheduling cancellation.The deep multimodal fusion module is formed by deep fusion of the feature output by multiple submodal fusion modules,and the multitask generation module uses longitude and latitude as two related tasks for simultaneous prediction.With more dependable data accuracy,problems can be analysed rapidly and more efficiently,enabling better decision-making with a proactive versus reactive posture.When multiple modalities coexist,features can be extracted from them simultaneously to supplement each other’s information.An actual case study,the typhoon Lichma that swept China in 2019,has demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary flight cancellations compared to existing flight scheduling and assist the new generation of flight scheduling systems under extreme weather.展开更多
This paper deals with the issue of preparation of the aiming angles with the use of tabular firing tables and needed determination of the ballistic elements μ_B(ballistic wind w_B,w_(xB),w_(ZB),ballistic(virtual) tem...This paper deals with the issue of preparation of the aiming angles with the use of tabular firing tables and needed determination of the ballistic elements μ_B(ballistic wind w_B,w_(xB),w_(ZB),ballistic(virtual) temperature τ_B.ballistic density p_B) from the standardized met messages.The weighting factors are used for the calculation of ballistic elements μ_B that are incorporated into the trajectory calculations characteristics of weapon and ammunition.Two different methodologies practically used in the praxis are analysed and compared.For the comparison of the two methodologies the reference height of trajectory determined from the weighting factor functions is employed.On the basis of the analyses conducted,the potential for further increase in accuracy of these aiming angles preparation methods is pointed out.展开更多
Projectile trajectories calculated under non-standard conditions are considered to be perturbed. The tools utilized for the analysis of perturbed trajectories are weighting factor functions(WFFs) which are a special k...Projectile trajectories calculated under non-standard conditions are considered to be perturbed. The tools utilized for the analysis of perturbed trajectories are weighting factor functions(WFFs) which are a special kind of sensitivity functions. WFFs are used for calculation of meteo ballistic elements mB(ballistic wind wB, virtual temperature tB, pressure pB, density rB, speed of sound a) as well. An effect of weapon system parameters can be incorporated into calculations through the reference height of trajectory-RHT.RHT are also calculated from WFFs. Methods based on RHT are far more effective than traditional methods that use weighting factors q.We have found that the existing theory of RHT has several shortcomings due to we created an improved theory of generalized RHT which represent a special sensitivity parameters of dynamical systems. Using this theory will improve methods for designing firing tables, fire control systems algorithms, and meteo message generation algorithms.展开更多
In support for the development of a new small-arm ballistic computer based on the NATO Armaments Ballistic Kernel(NABK) for the Canadian snipers, DRDC Valcartier Research Centre was asked to carry out high-fidelity 6 ...In support for the development of a new small-arm ballistic computer based on the NATO Armaments Ballistic Kernel(NABK) for the Canadian snipers, DRDC Valcartier Research Centre was asked to carry out high-fidelity 6 degree-of-freedom(6-DOF) trajectory simulations for a set of relevant vignettes for the snipers, and to compare the direct fire 6-DOF simulation results with those obtained with the 4-DOF NATO Armaments Ballistic Kernel(NABK) adapted to simulate small-arm ammunition trajectories. To conduct this study, DRDC Valcartier Research Centre used BALCO v1.0b. This paper presents(1) the process and the methodology employed to carry out the sniper direct fire solution study,(2) the modeling and the simulation of the sniper projectile, the approach used in calculating the firing solutions, and the results of direct fire simulations for the sniper vignettes, and(3) an analysis of firing solutions obtained with the BALCO engine versus those of NABK. The work presented in this paper serves to validate the use of NABK for the new sniper ballistic computer.展开更多
It follows from the analysis of artillery fire errors that approximately two-thirds of the inaccuracy of indirect artillery fire is caused by inaccuracies in the determination of the meteo parameters included in fire ...It follows from the analysis of artillery fire errors that approximately two-thirds of the inaccuracy of indirect artillery fire is caused by inaccuracies in the determination of the meteo parameters included in fire error budget model.Trajectories calculated under non-standard conditions are considered to be perturbed.The tools utilized for the analysis of perturbed trajectories are weighting factor functions(WFFs)which are a special kind of sensitivity functions.WFFs are used for calculation of meteo ballistic elements B(ballistic wind w B,densityρB,virtual temperatureτB,pressure p B)as well.We have found that the existing theory of WFF calculation has several significant shortcomings.The aim of the article is to present a new,improved theory of generalized WFFs that eliminates the deficiencies found.Using this theory will improve methods for designing firing tables,fire control systems algorithms,and meteo message generation algorithms.展开更多
The nonlinear dynamic model of spinning ballistic missiles is established during the first boosting phase of the missile. Based on the conventional backstepping sliding mode control and the assumption of a two time-sc...The nonlinear dynamic model of spinning ballistic missiles is established during the first boosting phase of the missile. Based on the conventional backstepping sliding mode control and the assumption of a two time-scale separation of missile dynamics, a graded sliding mode controller is designed with two sub-sliding surfaces which have invariability to external disturbances and parameter perturbations, and a matrix which comprises three first order low pass filters is introduced to prevent “explosion of terms”. Owing to the upper bounds of the uncertainties are difficult to obtain in advance, adaptive laws are introduced to estimate the values of the uncertainties in real-time. Eventually, the numerical simulation results given to show the proposed controller can ensure the steady flight of missiles.展开更多
为解决传统检测方法在处理复杂、动态以及数据长度实时变化的飞行轨迹数据时特征提取不准确、检测效率较低的问题,提出一种结合长短时记忆(Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM)网络和支持向量数据描述(Support Vector Data Description, SVDD...为解决传统检测方法在处理复杂、动态以及数据长度实时变化的飞行轨迹数据时特征提取不准确、检测效率较低的问题,提出一种结合长短时记忆(Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM)网络和支持向量数据描述(Support Vector Data Description, SVDD)的无监督异常检测方法。利用LSTM网络提取可变长度飞行轨迹的关键特征,并将其转化为固定长度的序列表示;通过SVDD算法构建多维超球分类器,对正常飞行轨迹进行建模,从而识别潜在异常轨迹。为进一步提升模型性能,引入基于梯度的优化算法(Gradient-Based training algorithm, GB),实现LSTM与SVDD参数的联合训练,大幅度提高检测精度和计算效率。仿真实验结果表明,新提出的基于梯度优化的长短时记忆网络和支持向量数据描述模型(Long Short-Term Memory network and Support Vector Data Description model based on Gradient-Based training algorithm optimization, LSTM-GBSVDD)的飞行轨迹异常检测方法在处理复杂、多变的飞行轨迹异常检测任务中表现出较好的有效性和优越性,有较强的应用前景。展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 12072090 and No.12302056) to provide fund for conducting experiments。
文摘Recently, high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missiles in the boost phase has become a research hotspot. This paper proposes a trajectory prediction algorithm driven by data and knowledge(DKTP) to solve this problem. Firstly, the complex dynamics characteristics of ballistic missile in the boost phase are analyzed in detail. Secondly, combining the missile dynamics model with the target gravity turning model, a knowledge-driven target three-dimensional turning(T3) model is derived. Then, the BP neural network is used to train the boost phase trajectory database in typical scenarios to obtain a datadriven state parameter mapping(SPM) model. On this basis, an online trajectory prediction framework driven by data and knowledge is established. Based on the SPM model, the three-dimensional turning coefficients of the target are predicted by using the current state of the target, and the state of the target at the next moment is obtained by combining the T3 model. Finally, simulation verification is carried out under various conditions. The simulation results show that the DKTP algorithm combines the advantages of data-driven and knowledge-driven, improves the interpretability of the algorithm, reduces the uncertainty, which can achieve high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missile in the boost phase.
文摘A conditional boost-phase trajectory estimation method based on ballistic missile （BM） information database and classification is developed to estimate and predict boos-phase BM trajectory. The main uncertain factors to describe BM dynamics equation are reduced to the control law of trajectory pitch angle in boost-phase. After the BM mass at the beginning of estimation, the BM attack angle and the modification of engine thrust denoting BM acceleration are modeled reasonably, the boost-phase BM trajectory estimation with ground based radar is well realized. The validity of this estimation method is testified by computer simulation with a typical example.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62073330)。
文摘Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon seasons appears and continues,airlines operating in threatened areas and passengers having travel plans during this time period will pay close attention to the development of tropical storms.This paper proposes a deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model that can improve the reliability of typhoon trajectory prediction and reduce the quantity of flight scheduling cancellation.The deep multimodal fusion module is formed by deep fusion of the feature output by multiple submodal fusion modules,and the multitask generation module uses longitude and latitude as two related tasks for simultaneous prediction.With more dependable data accuracy,problems can be analysed rapidly and more efficiently,enabling better decision-making with a proactive versus reactive posture.When multiple modalities coexist,features can be extracted from them simultaneously to supplement each other’s information.An actual case study,the typhoon Lichma that swept China in 2019,has demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary flight cancellations compared to existing flight scheduling and assist the new generation of flight scheduling systems under extreme weather.
基金support of financial means from the industrial research project of the Ministry of the Interior of the Czech Republic-project code VG20122015076:"Two survey points range-finding system utilization for perimeter security(screen)"the Research project for the development of the Department of Weapons and Ammunition,Faculty of Military Technology, University of Defence,Brno,PRO K-201
文摘This paper deals with the issue of preparation of the aiming angles with the use of tabular firing tables and needed determination of the ballistic elements μ_B(ballistic wind w_B,w_(xB),w_(ZB),ballistic(virtual) temperature τ_B.ballistic density p_B) from the standardized met messages.The weighting factors are used for the calculation of ballistic elements μ_B that are incorporated into the trajectory calculations characteristics of weapon and ammunition.Two different methodologies practically used in the praxis are analysed and compared.For the comparison of the two methodologies the reference height of trajectory determined from the weighting factor functions is employed.On the basis of the analyses conducted,the potential for further increase in accuracy of these aiming angles preparation methods is pointed out.
基金the Research Project for the Development of the Department of Weapons and Ammunition, Faculty of Military Technology, University of Defence, Brno, DZRO VYZBROJ
文摘Projectile trajectories calculated under non-standard conditions are considered to be perturbed. The tools utilized for the analysis of perturbed trajectories are weighting factor functions(WFFs) which are a special kind of sensitivity functions. WFFs are used for calculation of meteo ballistic elements mB(ballistic wind wB, virtual temperature tB, pressure pB, density rB, speed of sound a) as well. An effect of weapon system parameters can be incorporated into calculations through the reference height of trajectory-RHT.RHT are also calculated from WFFs. Methods based on RHT are far more effective than traditional methods that use weighting factors q.We have found that the existing theory of RHT has several shortcomings due to we created an improved theory of generalized RHT which represent a special sensitivity parameters of dynamical systems. Using this theory will improve methods for designing firing tables, fire control systems algorithms, and meteo message generation algorithms.
文摘In support for the development of a new small-arm ballistic computer based on the NATO Armaments Ballistic Kernel(NABK) for the Canadian snipers, DRDC Valcartier Research Centre was asked to carry out high-fidelity 6 degree-of-freedom(6-DOF) trajectory simulations for a set of relevant vignettes for the snipers, and to compare the direct fire 6-DOF simulation results with those obtained with the 4-DOF NATO Armaments Ballistic Kernel(NABK) adapted to simulate small-arm ammunition trajectories. To conduct this study, DRDC Valcartier Research Centre used BALCO v1.0b. This paper presents(1) the process and the methodology employed to carry out the sniper direct fire solution study,(2) the modeling and the simulation of the sniper projectile, the approach used in calculating the firing solutions, and the results of direct fire simulations for the sniper vignettes, and(3) an analysis of firing solutions obtained with the BALCO engine versus those of NABK. The work presented in this paper serves to validate the use of NABK for the new sniper ballistic computer.
基金support of financing from the Research Project for the Development of the Department of Weapons and Ammunition, Faculty of Military Technology, University of Defence, Brno, DZRO K–201
文摘It follows from the analysis of artillery fire errors that approximately two-thirds of the inaccuracy of indirect artillery fire is caused by inaccuracies in the determination of the meteo parameters included in fire error budget model.Trajectories calculated under non-standard conditions are considered to be perturbed.The tools utilized for the analysis of perturbed trajectories are weighting factor functions(WFFs)which are a special kind of sensitivity functions.WFFs are used for calculation of meteo ballistic elements B(ballistic wind w B,densityρB,virtual temperatureτB,pressure p B)as well.We have found that the existing theory of WFF calculation has several significant shortcomings.The aim of the article is to present a new,improved theory of generalized WFFs that eliminates the deficiencies found.Using this theory will improve methods for designing firing tables,fire control systems algorithms,and meteo message generation algorithms.
文摘The nonlinear dynamic model of spinning ballistic missiles is established during the first boosting phase of the missile. Based on the conventional backstepping sliding mode control and the assumption of a two time-scale separation of missile dynamics, a graded sliding mode controller is designed with two sub-sliding surfaces which have invariability to external disturbances and parameter perturbations, and a matrix which comprises three first order low pass filters is introduced to prevent “explosion of terms”. Owing to the upper bounds of the uncertainties are difficult to obtain in advance, adaptive laws are introduced to estimate the values of the uncertainties in real-time. Eventually, the numerical simulation results given to show the proposed controller can ensure the steady flight of missiles.
文摘为解决传统检测方法在处理复杂、动态以及数据长度实时变化的飞行轨迹数据时特征提取不准确、检测效率较低的问题,提出一种结合长短时记忆(Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM)网络和支持向量数据描述(Support Vector Data Description, SVDD)的无监督异常检测方法。利用LSTM网络提取可变长度飞行轨迹的关键特征,并将其转化为固定长度的序列表示;通过SVDD算法构建多维超球分类器,对正常飞行轨迹进行建模,从而识别潜在异常轨迹。为进一步提升模型性能,引入基于梯度的优化算法(Gradient-Based training algorithm, GB),实现LSTM与SVDD参数的联合训练,大幅度提高检测精度和计算效率。仿真实验结果表明,新提出的基于梯度优化的长短时记忆网络和支持向量数据描述模型(Long Short-Term Memory network and Support Vector Data Description model based on Gradient-Based training algorithm optimization, LSTM-GBSVDD)的飞行轨迹异常检测方法在处理复杂、多变的飞行轨迹异常检测任务中表现出较好的有效性和优越性,有较强的应用前景。
