Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projec...Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.展开更多
From the mathematical point of view,the flexible inventory control model is proved in the practical problem application and the rationality of the capacity parameter selection and calculation.The purpose is to activel...From the mathematical point of view,the flexible inventory control model is proved in the practical problem application and the rationality of the capacity parameter selection and calculation.The purpose is to actively respond to demand fluctuations when there is a demand forecast error or a missing part of the demand information,and to avoid the risk of passive variable demand forecasting to set the immutable inventory capacity.At the same time,the game is controlled by the flexible and variable inventory control strategy and the customer’s willingness to demand.The paper mainly studies the influence of the setting of capacity parameters on the booking-limit decision and its benefits under the control of flexible space with variable total capacity.Through the two trends of capacity increase flexibility and capacity reduction flexibility in the flexible inventory control model,the mathematical performance and marginal utility methods are introduced to change the performance of the booking-limit control decision model under different scenarios.The correlation analysis between the capacity limit level and the return under the optimal Bookinglimit decision,and the above two flexibility parameters are obtained.展开更多
In the paper, the determinate atlecation decision model and the probabilistic allocation decision model of a kind of renewable resource are separatly studied by means of dynamic programming, and the optimal allocation...In the paper, the determinate atlecation decision model and the probabilistic allocation decision model of a kind of renewable resource are separatly studied by means of dynamic programming, and the optimal allocation policy is given under some special conditions.展开更多
Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, t...Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.展开更多
基金supported from the National Science and Technology Major Project under Grant No.2011ZX05030
文摘Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.
文摘From the mathematical point of view,the flexible inventory control model is proved in the practical problem application and the rationality of the capacity parameter selection and calculation.The purpose is to actively respond to demand fluctuations when there is a demand forecast error or a missing part of the demand information,and to avoid the risk of passive variable demand forecasting to set the immutable inventory capacity.At the same time,the game is controlled by the flexible and variable inventory control strategy and the customer’s willingness to demand.The paper mainly studies the influence of the setting of capacity parameters on the booking-limit decision and its benefits under the control of flexible space with variable total capacity.Through the two trends of capacity increase flexibility and capacity reduction flexibility in the flexible inventory control model,the mathematical performance and marginal utility methods are introduced to change the performance of the booking-limit control decision model under different scenarios.The correlation analysis between the capacity limit level and the return under the optimal Bookinglimit decision,and the above two flexibility parameters are obtained.
文摘In the paper, the determinate atlecation decision model and the probabilistic allocation decision model of a kind of renewable resource are separatly studied by means of dynamic programming, and the optimal allocation policy is given under some special conditions.
文摘Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.
