LINEX(linear and exponential) loss function is a useful asymmetric loss function. The purpose of using a LINEX loss function in credibility models is to solve the problem of very high premium by suing a symmetric quad...LINEX(linear and exponential) loss function is a useful asymmetric loss function. The purpose of using a LINEX loss function in credibility models is to solve the problem of very high premium by suing a symmetric quadratic loss function in most of classical credibility models. The Bayes premium and the credibility premium are derived under LINEX loss function. The consistency of Bayes premium and credibility premium were also checked. Finally, the simulation was introduced to show the differences between the credibility estimator we derived and the classical one.展开更多
The development of Global Energy Interconnection(GEI)is essential for supporting a wide range of basic data resources.The Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization has established a compre...The development of Global Energy Interconnection(GEI)is essential for supporting a wide range of basic data resources.The Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization has established a comprehensive data center covering six major systems.However,methods for accurately describing and scientifically evaluating the credibility of the massive amount of GEI data remain underdeveloped.To address this lack of such methods,a GEI data credibility quantitative evaluation model is proposed here.An evaluation indicator system is established to evaluate data credibility from multiple perspectives and ensure the comprehensiveness and impartiality of evaluation results.The Cloud Model abandons the hard division of comments to ensure objectivity and accuracy in evaluation results.To evaluate the suitability of the proposed method,a case analysis is conducted,wherein the proposed method demonstrates sufficient validity and feasibility.展开更多
A method for modeling the parallel machine scheduling problems with fuzzy parameters and precedence constraints based on credibility measure is provided. For the given n jobs to be processed on m machines, it is assum...A method for modeling the parallel machine scheduling problems with fuzzy parameters and precedence constraints based on credibility measure is provided. For the given n jobs to be processed on m machines, it is assumed that the processing times and the due dates are nonnegative fuzzy numbers and all the weights are positive, crisp numbers. Based on credibility measure, three parallel machine scheduling problems and a goal-programming model are formulated. Feasible schedules are evaluated not only by their objective values but also by the credibility degree of satisfaction with their precedence constraints. The genetic algorithm is utilized to find the best solutions in a short period of time. An illustrative numerical example is also given. Simulation results show that the proposed models are effective, which can deal with the parallel machine scheduling problems with fuzzy parameters and precedence constraints based on credibility measure.展开更多
An approach to characterize the credibility of beliefs of an agent is proposed in this paper, which can define the uncertainty of beliefs, calculation rules and inference rules about credibility and a method for belie...An approach to characterize the credibility of beliefs of an agent is proposed in this paper, which can define the uncertainty of beliefs, calculation rules and inference rules about credibility and a method for belief revision based on abductive reasoning is also given. When an agent receives some new information, if the new information is consistent with the current belief set, then incorporate this new information with an appropriate credibility, otherwise the choice will be different depending on the characters of agents, and the deliberated agents will choose the belief with a better explanation under the current belief set. Removing one belief may cause the removal of those beliefs that, together with others, logically entail the formula to be removed. A method based on abduction is proposed to solve these problems.展开更多
In this paper, MLINEX loss function was considered to solve the problem of high premium in credibility models. The Bayes premium and credibility premium were obtained under MLINEX loss function by using a symmetric qu...In this paper, MLINEX loss function was considered to solve the problem of high premium in credibility models. The Bayes premium and credibility premium were obtained under MLINEX loss function by using a symmetric quadratic loss function. A credibility model with multiple contracts was established and the corresponding credibility estimator was derived under MLINEX loss function. For this model the estimations of the structure parameters and a numerical example were also given.展开更多
How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS consi...How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS considering the credibility of simulation system based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper.First of all,a comprehensive index system for the credibility of the simulation system of the firing precision of the MLRS is constructed combined with the group analytic hierarchy process.A modified method for determining the comprehensive weight of the index is established to improve the rationality of the index weight coefficients.The Bayesian posterior estimation formula of firing precision considering prior information is derived in the form of mixed prior distribution,and the rationality of prior information used in estimation model is discussed quantitatively.With the simulation tests,the different evaluation methods are compared to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally,the experimental results show that the effectiveness of estimation method for firing precision is improved by more than 25%.展开更多
An industrial park is one of the typical en ergy con sumption schemes in power systems owing to the heavy in dustrial loads and their abilities to resp ond to electricity price cha nges.Therefore,en ergy in tegrati on...An industrial park is one of the typical en ergy con sumption schemes in power systems owing to the heavy in dustrial loads and their abilities to resp ond to electricity price cha nges.Therefore,en ergy in tegrati on in the industrial sector is significant.Accordingly,the concept of industrial virtual power plant(IVPP)has been proposed to deal with such problems.This study demonstrates an IVPP model to man age resources in an eco-i ndustrial park,including en ergy storage systems,dema nd resp onse(DR)resources,and distributed energies.In addition,fuzzy theory is used to cha nge the deterministic system constraints to fuzzy parameters,considering the uncertainty of renewable energy,and fuzzy chance constraints are then set based on the credibility theory.By maximizi ng the daily ben efits of the IVPP owners in day-ahead markets,DR and energy storage systems can be scheduled economically.Therefore,the energy between the grid and IVPP can flow in both directions:the surplus renewable electricity of IVPP can be sold in the market;when the electricity gen erated in side IVPP is not enough for its use,IVPP can also purchase power through the market.Case studies based on three win d-level scenarios dem on strate the efficie nt syn ergies betwee n IVPP resources.The validatio n results indicate that IVPP can optimize the supply and demand resources in in dustrial parks,thereby decarbonizing the power systems.展开更多
In LEO(Low Earth Orbit)satellite communication systems,the satellite network is made up of a large number of satellites,the dynamically changing network environment affects the results of distributed computing.In orde...In LEO(Low Earth Orbit)satellite communication systems,the satellite network is made up of a large number of satellites,the dynamically changing network environment affects the results of distributed computing.In order to improve the fault tolerance rate,a novel public blockchain consensus mechanism that applies a distributed computing architecture in a public network is proposed.Redundant calculation of blockchain ensures the credibility of the results;and the transactions with calculation results of a task are stored distributed in sequence in Directed Acyclic Graphs(DAG).The transactions issued by nodes are connected to form a net.The net can quickly provide node reputation evaluation that does not rely on third parties.Simulations show that our proposed blockchain has the following advantages:1.The task processing speed of the blockchain can be close to that of the fastest node in the entire blockchain;2.When the tasks’arrival time intervals and demanded working nodes(WNs)meet certain conditions,the network can tolerate more than 50%of malicious devices;3.No matter the number of nodes in the blockchain is increased or reduced,the network can keep robustness by adjusting the task’s arrival time interval and demanded WNs.展开更多
To develop the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, namely, TOPSIS method with multi-goal in fuzzy decision environment. Firstly, a new approach to constructing fuzzy decision matrix by C...To develop the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, namely, TOPSIS method with multi-goal in fuzzy decision environment. Firstly, a new approach to constructing fuzzy decision matrix by Choquet integral was proposed in multi-goal decision system. Secondly, the concepts of fuzzy positive-ideal solution and fuzzy negative-ideal solution related to the fuzzy decision matrix were given. Finally, the credibility measure was adopted to calculate the distances to fuzzy positive-ideal solution and fuzzy negative-ideal solution. The presented fuzzy-TOPSIS method embodies well both the predetermined preferences and the weights of goals.展开更多
When dealing with the ratings from users,traditional collaborative filtering algorithms do not consider the credibility of rating data,which affects the accuracy of similarity.To address this issue,the paper proposes ...When dealing with the ratings from users,traditional collaborative filtering algorithms do not consider the credibility of rating data,which affects the accuracy of similarity.To address this issue,the paper proposes an improved algorithm based on classification and user trust.It firstly classifies all the ratings by the categories of items.And then,for each category,it evaluates the trustworthy degree of each user on the category and imposes the degree on the ratings of the user.Finally,the algorithm explores the similarities between users,finds the nearest neighbors,and makes recommendations within each category.Simulations show that the improved algorithm outperforms the traditional collaborative filtering algorithms and enhances the accuracy of recommendation.展开更多
Poetics by Aristotle sets the dogmas for literature,while Waiting for Godot,the representative of the Theater of the Ab⁃surd,violates the former’s principles to achieve certain effects.The thesis will analyze the vio...Poetics by Aristotle sets the dogmas for literature,while Waiting for Godot,the representative of the Theater of the Ab⁃surd,violates the former’s principles to achieve certain effects.The thesis will analyze the violation from the angle of Solidity or Authenticity of art and poetry,which are the likelinessandnecessity,and credibility.By digressing from the traditional rules,Wait⁃ing for Godot helps to create absurdity reflecting the inner loss of people after the war and to form a sense of alienation from reality.展开更多
The thorium molten salt reactor–liquid fuel(TMSR-LF1) has inherent safety features. The accident occurrence possibility and their consequences are much lower for the TMSR-LF1 than that of traditional reactors.Based o...The thorium molten salt reactor–liquid fuel(TMSR-LF1) has inherent safety features. The accident occurrence possibility and their consequences are much lower for the TMSR-LF1 than that of traditional reactors.Based on accident analysis, the maximum credible accident and the radioactive source terms of the TMSR-LF1 were first estimated. Then, the total effective dose of the maximum credible accident was calculated. Based on calculations, the cover gas flow rate can significantly affect the radiation consequences of the maximum credible accident when it changes from 0 to 10 L/min. If no cover gas is flowing, a site-area emergency would be required within the range of 50–73 m from the reactor. In the case of cover gas flow, only an abnormal notification and an alert two emergency class would be required within the range of 50 m.展开更多
基金Supported by the NNSF of China(71001046)Supported by the NSF of Jiangxi Province(20114BAB211004)
文摘LINEX(linear and exponential) loss function is a useful asymmetric loss function. The purpose of using a LINEX loss function in credibility models is to solve the problem of very high premium by suing a symmetric quadratic loss function in most of classical credibility models. The Bayes premium and the credibility premium are derived under LINEX loss function. The consistency of Bayes premium and credibility premium were also checked. Finally, the simulation was introduced to show the differences between the credibility estimator we derived and the classical one.
基金supported by the State Grid Science and Technology Project (No. 52450018000H)
文摘The development of Global Energy Interconnection(GEI)is essential for supporting a wide range of basic data resources.The Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization has established a comprehensive data center covering six major systems.However,methods for accurately describing and scientifically evaluating the credibility of the massive amount of GEI data remain underdeveloped.To address this lack of such methods,a GEI data credibility quantitative evaluation model is proposed here.An evaluation indicator system is established to evaluate data credibility from multiple perspectives and ensure the comprehensiveness and impartiality of evaluation results.The Cloud Model abandons the hard division of comments to ensure objectivity and accuracy in evaluation results.To evaluate the suitability of the proposed method,a case analysis is conducted,wherein the proposed method demonstrates sufficient validity and feasibility.
基金Sponsored by the Basic Research Foundation of Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT-UBF-200508G4212)
文摘A method for modeling the parallel machine scheduling problems with fuzzy parameters and precedence constraints based on credibility measure is provided. For the given n jobs to be processed on m machines, it is assumed that the processing times and the due dates are nonnegative fuzzy numbers and all the weights are positive, crisp numbers. Based on credibility measure, three parallel machine scheduling problems and a goal-programming model are formulated. Feasible schedules are evaluated not only by their objective values but also by the credibility degree of satisfaction with their precedence constraints. The genetic algorithm is utilized to find the best solutions in a short period of time. An illustrative numerical example is also given. Simulation results show that the proposed models are effective, which can deal with the parallel machine scheduling problems with fuzzy parameters and precedence constraints based on credibility measure.
文摘An approach to characterize the credibility of beliefs of an agent is proposed in this paper, which can define the uncertainty of beliefs, calculation rules and inference rules about credibility and a method for belief revision based on abductive reasoning is also given. When an agent receives some new information, if the new information is consistent with the current belief set, then incorporate this new information with an appropriate credibility, otherwise the choice will be different depending on the characters of agents, and the deliberated agents will choose the belief with a better explanation under the current belief set. Removing one belief may cause the removal of those beliefs that, together with others, logically entail the formula to be removed. A method based on abduction is proposed to solve these problems.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China（11271189） Supported by the Scientific Research Innovation Project of Jiangsu Province（KYZZ116_0175）
文摘In this paper, MLINEX loss function was considered to solve the problem of high premium in credibility models. The Bayes premium and credibility premium were obtained under MLINEX loss function by using a symmetric quadratic loss function. A credibility model with multiple contracts was established and the corresponding credibility estimator was derived under MLINEX loss function. For this model the estimations of the structure parameters and a numerical example were also given.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11972193 and 92266201)。
文摘How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS considering the credibility of simulation system based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper.First of all,a comprehensive index system for the credibility of the simulation system of the firing precision of the MLRS is constructed combined with the group analytic hierarchy process.A modified method for determining the comprehensive weight of the index is established to improve the rationality of the index weight coefficients.The Bayesian posterior estimation formula of firing precision considering prior information is derived in the form of mixed prior distribution,and the rationality of prior information used in estimation model is discussed quantitatively.With the simulation tests,the different evaluation methods are compared to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally,the experimental results show that the effectiveness of estimation method for firing precision is improved by more than 25%.
基金Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province(Project 2019B0909011001).
文摘An industrial park is one of the typical en ergy con sumption schemes in power systems owing to the heavy in dustrial loads and their abilities to resp ond to electricity price cha nges.Therefore,en ergy in tegrati on in the industrial sector is significant.Accordingly,the concept of industrial virtual power plant(IVPP)has been proposed to deal with such problems.This study demonstrates an IVPP model to man age resources in an eco-i ndustrial park,including en ergy storage systems,dema nd resp onse(DR)resources,and distributed energies.In addition,fuzzy theory is used to cha nge the deterministic system constraints to fuzzy parameters,considering the uncertainty of renewable energy,and fuzzy chance constraints are then set based on the credibility theory.By maximizi ng the daily ben efits of the IVPP owners in day-ahead markets,DR and energy storage systems can be scheduled economically.Therefore,the energy between the grid and IVPP can flow in both directions:the surplus renewable electricity of IVPP can be sold in the market;when the electricity gen erated in side IVPP is not enough for its use,IVPP can also purchase power through the market.Case studies based on three win d-level scenarios dem on strate the efficie nt syn ergies betwee n IVPP resources.The validatio n results indicate that IVPP can optimize the supply and demand resources in in dustrial parks,thereby decarbonizing the power systems.
基金funded in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 61772352, 62172061, 61871422)National Key Research and Development Project (Grants nos. 2020YFB1711800 and 2020YFB1707900)+2 种基金the Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Province (Grants no. 2021YFG0152, 2021YFG0025, 2020YFG0479, 2020YFG0322, 2020GFW035, 2020GFW033, 2020YFH0071)the R&D Project of Chengdu City (Grant no. 2019-YF05-01790-GX)the Central Universities of Southwest Minzu University (Grants no. ZYN2022032)
文摘In LEO(Low Earth Orbit)satellite communication systems,the satellite network is made up of a large number of satellites,the dynamically changing network environment affects the results of distributed computing.In order to improve the fault tolerance rate,a novel public blockchain consensus mechanism that applies a distributed computing architecture in a public network is proposed.Redundant calculation of blockchain ensures the credibility of the results;and the transactions with calculation results of a task are stored distributed in sequence in Directed Acyclic Graphs(DAG).The transactions issued by nodes are connected to form a net.The net can quickly provide node reputation evaluation that does not rely on third parties.Simulations show that our proposed blockchain has the following advantages:1.The task processing speed of the blockchain can be close to that of the fastest node in the entire blockchain;2.When the tasks’arrival time intervals and demanded working nodes(WNs)meet certain conditions,the network can tolerate more than 50%of malicious devices;3.No matter the number of nodes in the blockchain is increased or reduced,the network can keep robustness by adjusting the task’s arrival time interval and demanded WNs.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70771010)
文摘To develop the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, namely, TOPSIS method with multi-goal in fuzzy decision environment. Firstly, a new approach to constructing fuzzy decision matrix by Choquet integral was proposed in multi-goal decision system. Secondly, the concepts of fuzzy positive-ideal solution and fuzzy negative-ideal solution related to the fuzzy decision matrix were given. Finally, the credibility measure was adopted to calculate the distances to fuzzy positive-ideal solution and fuzzy negative-ideal solution. The presented fuzzy-TOPSIS method embodies well both the predetermined preferences and the weights of goals.
基金supported by Phase 4,Software Engineering(Software Service Engineering)under Grant No.XXKZD1301
文摘When dealing with the ratings from users,traditional collaborative filtering algorithms do not consider the credibility of rating data,which affects the accuracy of similarity.To address this issue,the paper proposes an improved algorithm based on classification and user trust.It firstly classifies all the ratings by the categories of items.And then,for each category,it evaluates the trustworthy degree of each user on the category and imposes the degree on the ratings of the user.Finally,the algorithm explores the similarities between users,finds the nearest neighbors,and makes recommendations within each category.Simulations show that the improved algorithm outperforms the traditional collaborative filtering algorithms and enhances the accuracy of recommendation.
文摘Poetics by Aristotle sets the dogmas for literature,while Waiting for Godot,the representative of the Theater of the Ab⁃surd,violates the former’s principles to achieve certain effects.The thesis will analyze the violation from the angle of Solidity or Authenticity of art and poetry,which are the likelinessandnecessity,and credibility.By digressing from the traditional rules,Wait⁃ing for Godot helps to create absurdity reflecting the inner loss of people after the war and to form a sense of alienation from reality.
文摘The thorium molten salt reactor–liquid fuel(TMSR-LF1) has inherent safety features. The accident occurrence possibility and their consequences are much lower for the TMSR-LF1 than that of traditional reactors.Based on accident analysis, the maximum credible accident and the radioactive source terms of the TMSR-LF1 were first estimated. Then, the total effective dose of the maximum credible accident was calculated. Based on calculations, the cover gas flow rate can significantly affect the radiation consequences of the maximum credible accident when it changes from 0 to 10 L/min. If no cover gas is flowing, a site-area emergency would be required within the range of 50–73 m from the reactor. In the case of cover gas flow, only an abnormal notification and an alert two emergency class would be required within the range of 50 m.
