To cope with multi-directional transmission coupling,spreading, amplification, and chain reaction of risks during multiproject parallel construction of warships, a risk transmission evaluation method is proposed, whic...To cope with multi-directional transmission coupling,spreading, amplification, and chain reaction of risks during multiproject parallel construction of warships, a risk transmission evaluation method is proposed, which integrates an intuitionistic cloud model with a fuzzy cognitive map. By virtue of expectancy Ex, entropy En, and hyper entropy He, the risk fuzziness and randomness of the knowledge of experts are organically combined to develop a method for converting bi-linguistic variable decision-making information into the quantitative information of the intuitionistic normal cloud(INC) model. Subsequently, the threshold function and weighted summation operation in the traditional fuzzy cognitive map is converted into the INC ordered weighted averaging operator to create the risk transmission model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map(IFCM) and the algorithm for solving it. Subsequently, the risk influence sequencing method based on INC and the risk rating method based on nearness are proposed on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation in order to realize the mutual conversion of the qualitative and quantitative information in the risk evaluation results.Example analysis is presented to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the methods.展开更多
In this paper, the practice of the past 30 years of reform and open policy was analyzed. A comprehensive evaluation model based on Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） was established and some empirical analyses （data ...In this paper, the practice of the past 30 years of reform and open policy was analyzed. A comprehensive evaluation model based on Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） was established and some empirical analyses （data from 1978-2006） on the rural construction were made based on this model. It is concluded that the rural construction has achieved the great success since carring on the reform and open policy. The rural construction during this period could be divided into two stages. At the first stage, achievements were mainly due to the construction of agricultural development and rural harmony-driven. And at the second stage, achievements were mainly due to the improvement of the quality at present. Consequently, the efforts to improve the rural construction must be intensified for a long time. Moreover, it is necessary to grasp the key points to make up the lack of rural construction.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71501183).
文摘To cope with multi-directional transmission coupling,spreading, amplification, and chain reaction of risks during multiproject parallel construction of warships, a risk transmission evaluation method is proposed, which integrates an intuitionistic cloud model with a fuzzy cognitive map. By virtue of expectancy Ex, entropy En, and hyper entropy He, the risk fuzziness and randomness of the knowledge of experts are organically combined to develop a method for converting bi-linguistic variable decision-making information into the quantitative information of the intuitionistic normal cloud(INC) model. Subsequently, the threshold function and weighted summation operation in the traditional fuzzy cognitive map is converted into the INC ordered weighted averaging operator to create the risk transmission model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map(IFCM) and the algorithm for solving it. Subsequently, the risk influence sequencing method based on INC and the risk rating method based on nearness are proposed on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation in order to realize the mutual conversion of the qualitative and quantitative information in the risk evaluation results.Example analysis is presented to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the methods.
基金Supported by Research on New Agricultural Social Service System(09BSH026)Theory and Strategic Studies of Modern Agricultural Development(1152Z036)
文摘In this paper, the practice of the past 30 years of reform and open policy was analyzed. A comprehensive evaluation model based on Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） was established and some empirical analyses （data from 1978-2006） on the rural construction were made based on this model. It is concluded that the rural construction has achieved the great success since carring on the reform and open policy. The rural construction during this period could be divided into two stages. At the first stage, achievements were mainly due to the construction of agricultural development and rural harmony-driven. And at the second stage, achievements were mainly due to the improvement of the quality at present. Consequently, the efforts to improve the rural construction must be intensified for a long time. Moreover, it is necessary to grasp the key points to make up the lack of rural construction.
