As an important factor in evaluating service,QoS(Quality of Service) has drawn more and more concerns with the rapid increasing of Web services. However,due to the great volatility of services in Mobile Internet envir...As an important factor in evaluating service,QoS(Quality of Service) has drawn more and more concerns with the rapid increasing of Web services. However,due to the great volatility of services in Mobile Internet environments,such as internet of vehicles,Web services often do not work as announced and thus cause unacceptable problems. QoS prediction can avoid failure before it takes place,which is considered a more effective way to assure quality. However,Current QoS prediction approaches neither consider the highly dynamic of Web services,nor maintain good prediction performance all the time. Consequently we propose a novel Bayesian combinational model to predict QoS by continuously adjusting credit values of the basic models so as to keep good prediction accuracy. QoS attributes such as response time,throughput and reliability are used to validate the proposed model. Experimental results show that the model can provide stable prediction results in Mobile Internet environments.展开更多
Firstly, the new combined error model of cumulative geoid height influenced by four error sources, including the inter-satellite range-rate of an interferometric laser （K-band） ranging system, the orbital position a...Firstly, the new combined error model of cumulative geoid height influenced by four error sources, including the inter-satellite range-rate of an interferometric laser （K-band） ranging system, the orbital position and velocity of a global positioning system （GPS） receiver and non-conservative force of an accelerometer, is established from the perspectives of the power spectrum principle in physics using the semi-analytical approach. Secondly, the accuracy of the global gravitational field is accurately and rapidly estimated based on the combined error model; the cumulative geoid height error is 1.985× 10^-1 m at degree 120 based on GRACE Level 1B measured observation errors of the year 2007 published by the US Jet Propulsion Laboratory （JPL）, and the cumulative geoid height error is 5.825 × 10^-2 m at degree 360 using GRACE Follow-On orbital altitude 250 km and inter-satellite range 50 km. The matching relationship of accuracy indexes from GRACE Follow-On key payloads is brought forward, and the dependability of the combined error model is validated. Finally, the feasibility of high-accuracy and high-resolution global gravitational field estimation from GRACE Follow-On is demonstrated based on different satellite orbital altitudes.展开更多
Ensuring a sufficient energy supply is essential to a country. Natural gas constitutes a vital part in energy supply and therefore forecasting natural gas consumption reliably and accurately is an essential part of a ...Ensuring a sufficient energy supply is essential to a country. Natural gas constitutes a vital part in energy supply and therefore forecasting natural gas consumption reliably and accurately is an essential part of a country＇s energy policy. Over the years, studies have shown that a combinative model gives better projected results compared to a single model. In this study, we used Polynomial Curve and Moving Average Combination Projection （PCMACP） model to estimate the future natural gas consumption in China from 2009 to 2015. The new proposed PCMACP model shows more reliable and accurate results： its Mean Absolute Percentage Error （MAPE） is less than those of any previous models within the investigated range. According to the PCMACP model, the average annual growth rate will increase for the next 7 years and the amount of natural gas consumption will reach 171600 million cubic meters in 2015 in China.展开更多
This study proposes a combined hybrid energy storage system(HESS) and transmission grid(TG) model, and a corresponding time series operation simulation(TSOS) model is established to relieve the peak-shaving pressure o...This study proposes a combined hybrid energy storage system(HESS) and transmission grid(TG) model, and a corresponding time series operation simulation(TSOS) model is established to relieve the peak-shaving pressure of power systems under the integration of renewable energy. First, a linear model for the optimal operation of the HESS is established, which considers the different power-efficiency characteristics of the pumped storage system, electrochemical storage system, and a new type of liquid compressed air energy storage. Second, a TSOS simulation model for peak shaving is built to maximize the power entering the grid from the wind farms and HESS. Based on the proposed model, this study considers the transmission capacity of a TG. By adding the power-flow constraints of the TG, a TSOS-based HESS and TG combination model for peak shaving is established. Finally, the improved IEEE-39 and IEEE-118 bus systems were considered as examples to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.展开更多
There has been increasing interests in developing land use models for small urban areas for various planning applications such as air quality conformity analysis. The output of a land use model can serve as a major in...There has been increasing interests in developing land use models for small urban areas for various planning applications such as air quality conformity analysis. The output of a land use model can serve as a major input to a transportation model; conversely, transportation model output can provide a critical input to a land use model. The connection between the two models can be achieved by an accessibility measure. This paper presents an iterative approach to solving a regression-based land use model and a transportation model with combined trip distribution- assignment. A case study using data from a small urban area is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed modeling framework. Tests show that the procedures can converge, and the modeling framework can be a valuable tool for planners and decision-makers in evaluating land use policies and transportation investment strategies.展开更多
The combined bottleneck effect is investigated by modeling traffic systems with an on-ramp and a nearby bus stop in a two-lane cellular automaton model. Two cases, i.e. the bus stop locates in the downstream section o...The combined bottleneck effect is investigated by modeling traffic systems with an on-ramp and a nearby bus stop in a two-lane cellular automaton model. Two cases, i.e. the bus stop locates in the downstream section of the on-ramp and the bus stop locates in the upstream section of the on-ramp, are considered separately. The upstream flux and downstream flux of the main road, as well as the on-ramp flux are analysed in detail, with respect to the entering probabilities and the distance between the on-ramp and the bus stop. It is found that the combination of the two bottlenecks causes the capacity to drop off, because the vehicles entering the main road from the on-ramp would interweave with the stopping （pulling-out） buses in the downstream （upstream） case. The traffic conflict in the former case is much heavier than that in the latter, causing the downstream main road to be utilized inefficiently. This suggests that the bus stop should be set in the upstream section of the on-ramp to enhance the capacity. The fluxes both on the main road and on the on-ramp vary with the distance between the two bottlenecks in both cases. However, the effects of distance disappear gradually at large distances. These findings might give some guidance to traffic optimization and management.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (61572171,61202097,61202136)Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (20120094120009)+2 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (B15020191)the national college students innovation training program (No.201511460012)by Jiangsu Province,and key special funds of efficient utilization of water resources (No.2016YFC0402710)
文摘As an important factor in evaluating service,QoS(Quality of Service) has drawn more and more concerns with the rapid increasing of Web services. However,due to the great volatility of services in Mobile Internet environments,such as internet of vehicles,Web services often do not work as announced and thus cause unacceptable problems. QoS prediction can avoid failure before it takes place,which is considered a more effective way to assure quality. However,Current QoS prediction approaches neither consider the highly dynamic of Web services,nor maintain good prediction performance all the time. Consequently we propose a novel Bayesian combinational model to predict QoS by continuously adjusting credit values of the basic models so as to keep good prediction accuracy. QoS attributes such as response time,throughput and reliability are used to validate the proposed model. Experimental results show that the model can provide stable prediction results in Mobile Internet environments.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 40674038)the Funds of the Chinese Academy of Sciences for Key Topics in Innovation Engineering (Grant Nos KZCX2-YW-143 and KZCX2-YW-202)+1 种基金the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863) (Grant Nos 2009AA12Z138 and 2006AA09Z153)the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research of Japan (Grant No B19340129)
文摘Firstly, the new combined error model of cumulative geoid height influenced by four error sources, including the inter-satellite range-rate of an interferometric laser （K-band） ranging system, the orbital position and velocity of a global positioning system （GPS） receiver and non-conservative force of an accelerometer, is established from the perspectives of the power spectrum principle in physics using the semi-analytical approach. Secondly, the accuracy of the global gravitational field is accurately and rapidly estimated based on the combined error model; the cumulative geoid height error is 1.985× 10^-1 m at degree 120 based on GRACE Level 1B measured observation errors of the year 2007 published by the US Jet Propulsion Laboratory （JPL）, and the cumulative geoid height error is 5.825 × 10^-2 m at degree 360 using GRACE Follow-On orbital altitude 250 km and inter-satellite range 50 km. The matching relationship of accuracy indexes from GRACE Follow-On key payloads is brought forward, and the dependability of the combined error model is validated. Finally, the feasibility of high-accuracy and high-resolution global gravitational field estimation from GRACE Follow-On is demonstrated based on different satellite orbital altitudes.
基金supported by the Youth Fund of Chinese Academy of Sciences Knowledge Innovation Program area frontier projects (No. S200603)the Innovation Team Project of Education Department of Liaoning Province (No. 2007T050)
文摘Ensuring a sufficient energy supply is essential to a country. Natural gas constitutes a vital part in energy supply and therefore forecasting natural gas consumption reliably and accurately is an essential part of a country＇s energy policy. Over the years, studies have shown that a combinative model gives better projected results compared to a single model. In this study, we used Polynomial Curve and Moving Average Combination Projection （PCMACP） model to estimate the future natural gas consumption in China from 2009 to 2015. The new proposed PCMACP model shows more reliable and accurate results： its Mean Absolute Percentage Error （MAPE） is less than those of any previous models within the investigated range. According to the PCMACP model, the average annual growth rate will increase for the next 7 years and the amount of natural gas consumption will reach 171600 million cubic meters in 2015 in China.
基金supported by the State Grid Science and Technology Project (No.52999821N004)。
文摘This study proposes a combined hybrid energy storage system(HESS) and transmission grid(TG) model, and a corresponding time series operation simulation(TSOS) model is established to relieve the peak-shaving pressure of power systems under the integration of renewable energy. First, a linear model for the optimal operation of the HESS is established, which considers the different power-efficiency characteristics of the pumped storage system, electrochemical storage system, and a new type of liquid compressed air energy storage. Second, a TSOS simulation model for peak shaving is built to maximize the power entering the grid from the wind farms and HESS. Based on the proposed model, this study considers the transmission capacity of a TG. By adding the power-flow constraints of the TG, a TSOS-based HESS and TG combination model for peak shaving is established. Finally, the improved IEEE-39 and IEEE-118 bus systems were considered as examples to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.
文摘There has been increasing interests in developing land use models for small urban areas for various planning applications such as air quality conformity analysis. The output of a land use model can serve as a major input to a transportation model; conversely, transportation model output can provide a critical input to a land use model. The connection between the two models can be achieved by an accessibility measure. This paper presents an iterative approach to solving a regression-based land use model and a transportation model with combined trip distribution- assignment. A case study using data from a small urban area is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed modeling framework. Tests show that the procedures can converge, and the modeling framework can be a valuable tool for planners and decision-makers in evaluating land use policies and transportation investment strategies.
基金Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No 2006CB705500)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 70631001,70701004 and 70501004)
文摘The combined bottleneck effect is investigated by modeling traffic systems with an on-ramp and a nearby bus stop in a two-lane cellular automaton model. Two cases, i.e. the bus stop locates in the downstream section of the on-ramp and the bus stop locates in the upstream section of the on-ramp, are considered separately. The upstream flux and downstream flux of the main road, as well as the on-ramp flux are analysed in detail, with respect to the entering probabilities and the distance between the on-ramp and the bus stop. It is found that the combination of the two bottlenecks causes the capacity to drop off, because the vehicles entering the main road from the on-ramp would interweave with the stopping （pulling-out） buses in the downstream （upstream） case. The traffic conflict in the former case is much heavier than that in the latter, causing the downstream main road to be utilized inefficiently. This suggests that the bus stop should be set in the upstream section of the on-ramp to enhance the capacity. The fluxes both on the main road and on the on-ramp vary with the distance between the two bottlenecks in both cases. However, the effects of distance disappear gradually at large distances. These findings might give some guidance to traffic optimization and management.
