This study presents a Bayesian methodology for de- signing step stress accelerated degradation testing （SSADT） and its application to batteries. First, the simulation-based Bayesian de- sign framework for SSADT is p...This study presents a Bayesian methodology for de- signing step stress accelerated degradation testing （SSADT） and its application to batteries. First, the simulation-based Bayesian de- sign framework for SSADT is presented. Then, by considering his- torical data, specific optimal objectives oriented Kullback-Leibler （KL） divergence is established. A numerical example is discussed to illustrate the design approach. It is assumed that the degrada- tion model （or process） follows a drift Brownian motion; the accele- ration model follows Arrhenius equation; and the corresponding parameters follow normal and Gamma prior distributions. Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） method and WinBUGS software, the comparison shows that KL divergence is better than quadratic loss for optimal criteria. Further, the effect of simulation outiiers on the optimization plan is analyzed and the preferred sur- face fitting algorithm is chosen. At the end of the paper, a NASA lithium-ion battery dataset is used as historical information and the KL divergence oriented Bayesian design is compared with maxi- mum likelihood theory oriented locally optimal design. The results show that the proposed method can provide a much better testing plan for this engineering application.展开更多
The optocoupler is a weak link in the inertial navigation platform of a kind of guided munitions.It is necessary to use accelerated storage test to verify the storage life of long storage products.Especially for small...The optocoupler is a weak link in the inertial navigation platform of a kind of guided munitions.It is necessary to use accelerated storage test to verify the storage life of long storage products.Especially for small sample products,it is very important to obtain prior information for the design and implementation of accelerated degradation test.In this paper,the optocoupler failure mechanism verification test is designed and the experimental results are analyzed and the prior information is obtained.The results show that optocouplers have two failure modes,one is sudden failure and the other is degradation failure;the maximum temperature stress of optocoupler can’t exceed 140℃;the increase of leakage current of optocoupler is caused by movable ions contaminating the LED chip.The surface leakage current is proportional to the adsorption amount.The increase of leakage current makes p-n junction tunneling effect occur which LEDs the failure of the optocoupler.The lifetime distribution model of the optocoupler is determined by the failure physics.The lifetime of the optocoupler is subject to the lognormal distribution.The degeneracy orbit of the optocoupler leakage current is described by a power law model.The estimated values of the orbital parameters are initially calculated and the parameters of its life distribution function are deduced.The above information lays a good foundation for the optimization design and data processing of the accelerated degradation experiment.展开更多
For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is ...For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is built. An analytical approximation to the probability density function (PDF) of the product's lifetime is derived in a closed form. The process and data of SSADT are analyzed to obtain the relation model of the observed data under each accelerated stress. The likelihood function for the population-based observed data is constructed. The population-based model parameters and its random coefficient prior values are estimated. According to the newly observed data of the target product in SSADT, an analytical approximation to the PDF of its residual lifetime (RL) is derived in accordance with its individual degradation characteristics. The parameter updating method based on Bayesian inference is applied to obtain the posterior value of random coefficient of the RL model. A numerical example by simulation is analyzed to verify the accuracy and advantage of the proposed model.展开更多
Reliability enhancement testing(RET) is an accelerated testing which hastens the performance degradation process to surface its inherent defects of design and manufacture. It is an important hypothesis that the degrad...Reliability enhancement testing(RET) is an accelerated testing which hastens the performance degradation process to surface its inherent defects of design and manufacture. It is an important hypothesis that the degradation mechanism of the RET is the same as the one of the normal stress condition. In order to check the consistency of two mechanisms, we conduct two enhancement tests with a missile servo system as an object of the study, and preprocess two sets of test data to establish the accelerated degradation models regarding the temperature change rate that is assumed to be the main applied stress of the servo system during the natural storage. Based on the accelerated degradation models and natural storage profile of the servo system, we provide and demonstrate a procedure to check the consistency of two mechanisms by checking the correlation and difference of two sets of degradation data. The results indicate that the two degradation mechanisms are significantly consistent with each other.展开更多
A lifetime prediction method for high-reliability tantalum （Ta） capacitors was proposed, based on multiple degradation measures and grey model （GM）. For analyzing performance degradation data, a two-parameter mode...A lifetime prediction method for high-reliability tantalum （Ta） capacitors was proposed, based on multiple degradation measures and grey model （GM）. For analyzing performance degradation data, a two-parameter model based on GM was developed. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the two-parameter model, parameter selection based on particle swarm optimization （PSO） was used. Then, the new PSO-GM（1, 2, co） optimization model was constructed, which was validated experimentally by conducting an accelerated testing on the Ta capacitors. The experiments were conducted at three different stress levels of 85, 120, and 145℃. The results of two experiments were used in estimating the parameters. And the reliability of the Ta capacitors was estimated at the same stress conditions of the third experiment. The results indicate that the proposed method is valid and accurate.展开更多
Fiber optical gyroscope(FOG)is a highly reliable navigation element,and the degradation trajectories of its two accuracy indexes are monotonic and non-monotonic respectively.In this paper,a flexible accelerated degrad...Fiber optical gyroscope(FOG)is a highly reliable navigation element,and the degradation trajectories of its two accuracy indexes are monotonic and non-monotonic respectively.In this paper,a flexible accelerated degradation testing(ADT)model is used for analyzing the bivariate dependent degradation process of FOG.The time-varying copulas are employed to consider the dynamic dependency structure between two marginal degradation processes as the Wiener process and the inverse Gaussian process.The statistical inference is implemented by utilizing an inference function for the margins(IFM)approach.It is demonstrated that the proposed method is powerful in modeling the joint distribution with various margins.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61104182)
文摘This study presents a Bayesian methodology for de- signing step stress accelerated degradation testing （SSADT） and its application to batteries. First, the simulation-based Bayesian de- sign framework for SSADT is presented. Then, by considering his- torical data, specific optimal objectives oriented Kullback-Leibler （KL） divergence is established. A numerical example is discussed to illustrate the design approach. It is assumed that the degrada- tion model （or process） follows a drift Brownian motion; the accele- ration model follows Arrhenius equation; and the corresponding parameters follow normal and Gamma prior distributions. Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） method and WinBUGS software, the comparison shows that KL divergence is better than quadratic loss for optimal criteria. Further, the effect of simulation outiiers on the optimization plan is analyzed and the preferred sur- face fitting algorithm is chosen. At the end of the paper, a NASA lithium-ion battery dataset is used as historical information and the KL divergence oriented Bayesian design is compared with maxi- mum likelihood theory oriented locally optimal design. The results show that the proposed method can provide a much better testing plan for this engineering application.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China of China(No.61471385)。
文摘The optocoupler is a weak link in the inertial navigation platform of a kind of guided munitions.It is necessary to use accelerated storage test to verify the storage life of long storage products.Especially for small sample products,it is very important to obtain prior information for the design and implementation of accelerated degradation test.In this paper,the optocoupler failure mechanism verification test is designed and the experimental results are analyzed and the prior information is obtained.The results show that optocouplers have two failure modes,one is sudden failure and the other is degradation failure;the maximum temperature stress of optocoupler can’t exceed 140℃;the increase of leakage current of optocoupler is caused by movable ions contaminating the LED chip.The surface leakage current is proportional to the adsorption amount.The increase of leakage current makes p-n junction tunneling effect occur which LEDs the failure of the optocoupler.The lifetime distribution model of the optocoupler is determined by the failure physics.The lifetime of the optocoupler is subject to the lognormal distribution.The degeneracy orbit of the optocoupler leakage current is described by a power law model.The estimated values of the orbital parameters are initially calculated and the parameters of its life distribution function are deduced.The above information lays a good foundation for the optimization design and data processing of the accelerated degradation experiment.
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(71601183)
文摘For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is built. An analytical approximation to the probability density function (PDF) of the product's lifetime is derived in a closed form. The process and data of SSADT are analyzed to obtain the relation model of the observed data under each accelerated stress. The likelihood function for the population-based observed data is constructed. The population-based model parameters and its random coefficient prior values are estimated. According to the newly observed data of the target product in SSADT, an analytical approximation to the PDF of its residual lifetime (RL) is derived in accordance with its individual degradation characteristics. The parameter updating method based on Bayesian inference is applied to obtain the posterior value of random coefficient of the RL model. A numerical example by simulation is analyzed to verify the accuracy and advantage of the proposed model.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2018JJ2282)
文摘Reliability enhancement testing(RET) is an accelerated testing which hastens the performance degradation process to surface its inherent defects of design and manufacture. It is an important hypothesis that the degradation mechanism of the RET is the same as the one of the normal stress condition. In order to check the consistency of two mechanisms, we conduct two enhancement tests with a missile servo system as an object of the study, and preprocess two sets of test data to establish the accelerated degradation models regarding the temperature change rate that is assumed to be the main applied stress of the servo system during the natural storage. Based on the accelerated degradation models and natural storage profile of the servo system, we provide and demonstrate a procedure to check the consistency of two mechanisms by checking the correlation and difference of two sets of degradation data. The results indicate that the two degradation mechanisms are significantly consistent with each other.
基金Project(Z132012) supported by the Second Five Technology-based Fund in Science and Industry Bureau of ChinaProject(1004GK0032) supported by General Armament Department for the Common Issues of Military Electronic Components,China
文摘A lifetime prediction method for high-reliability tantalum （Ta） capacitors was proposed, based on multiple degradation measures and grey model （GM）. For analyzing performance degradation data, a two-parameter model based on GM was developed. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the two-parameter model, parameter selection based on particle swarm optimization （PSO） was used. Then, the new PSO-GM（1, 2, co） optimization model was constructed, which was validated experimentally by conducting an accelerated testing on the Ta capacitors. The experiments were conducted at three different stress levels of 85, 120, and 145℃. The results of two experiments were used in estimating the parameters. And the reliability of the Ta capacitors was estimated at the same stress conditions of the third experiment. The results indicate that the proposed method is valid and accurate.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFB0104504).
文摘Fiber optical gyroscope(FOG)is a highly reliable navigation element,and the degradation trajectories of its two accuracy indexes are monotonic and non-monotonic respectively.In this paper,a flexible accelerated degradation testing(ADT)model is used for analyzing the bivariate dependent degradation process of FOG.The time-varying copulas are employed to consider the dynamic dependency structure between two marginal degradation processes as the Wiener process and the inverse Gaussian process.The statistical inference is implemented by utilizing an inference function for the margins(IFM)approach.It is demonstrated that the proposed method is powerful in modeling the joint distribution with various margins.
