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城市供水管网极端寒潮灾害影响特征与设防标准 被引量:3
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作者 胡群芳 车德路 +4 位作者 宋朝阳 王飞 方宏远 赫磊 朱慧峰 《同济大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第2期188-196,共9页
近年来随着全球气候变化,城市遭遇极端寒潮灾害频发,经常对城市关键基础设施大型供水管网造成破坏。为此,以上海市为例,研究城市供水系统寒潮灾害影响规律及设防标准,通过对上海市2020年底到2021年初的极端寒潮事件进行研究,分析寒潮过... 近年来随着全球气候变化,城市遭遇极端寒潮灾害频发,经常对城市关键基础设施大型供水管网造成破坏。为此,以上海市为例,研究城市供水系统寒潮灾害影响规律及设防标准,通过对上海市2020年底到2021年初的极端寒潮事件进行研究,分析寒潮过程中供水系统压力、流量、管道维修以及其他供水设施功能受损情况。结合近60年的气象资料,对上海市历年气象寒潮事件进行统计分析,给出当日最低温度、24h降温、48h降温、72h降温、过程最低温度及持续时间6个寒潮特征指标的分布规律。同时,利用泊松分布计算了上海市年最低温度的重现期和超越概率,提出了水表等外露设施的温度设防建议标准,并针对气温数据和管道维修数据进行关联性分析,从维修率的角度识别对管道运行造成不利影响的温度基准。研究结果可为长三角地区城市供水行业安全运行与灾害防控提供理论和技术参考。 展开更多
关键词 供水管网 气象灾害 寒潮特征 重现期 设防标准
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列车脱轨机理与脱轨分析理论研究 被引量:8
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作者 向俊 曾庆元 《中国铁道科学》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2008年第1期127-129,共3页
The major problems existing in the derailment studies are summarized according to analysis of the research status about train derailment in China and other countries of the world.(1) The current criteria for preventin... The major problems existing in the derailment studies are summarized according to analysis of the research status about train derailment in China and other countries of the world.(1) The current criteria for preventing derailment cannot assure that derailment will not occur.(2) It is not clear for train derailment mechanism.(3) There exist three fundamental problems in the calculation of train derailment as follows: ① The connecting condition of displacement between wheel and rail cannot be satisfied in establishment and solution of vibration equation group of train-track(bridge) time-variant system.② Only the lateral track irregularity is regarded as the exciting source of lateral vibration of train-track(bridge) time-variant system.The true exciting source,i.e.the wheel and rail contact status is neglected.③ The random lateral vibration of train-track (bridge) time-variant system is analyzed according to the random track irregularity and analysis theory of random vibration of time-invariant system.But the maximum responses of lateral vibration of train-track(bridge) time-variant system cannot be calculated,and furthermore train deraiment cannot be forecasted.The thinking and methods for solving these problems are also introduced.The train derailment mechanism,which is the result of losing stability in lateral vibration status of train-track(bridge) time-variant system,is proposed for the first time by analysis of characteristics of self-excitation of train vibration and losing stability in self-excitation vibration status of train derailment.So the key to analyzing train derailment is to analyze the stability of lateral vibration of train-track(bridge) time-variant system.The following conclusions are made by summarizing the existing analysis theory of stability of static and dynamic system.(1) Because of the characteristics of time-variant and self-excitation of train-track(bridge) system,the stability of lateral vibration of the system cannot directly be analyzed by the existing analysis theory of stability of static and dynamic system.(2) The common point of the existing analysis theory of stability of static and dynamic system is that the stability of static and dynamic system is evaluated by the comparison between the resisting force increment(or the increment of the work done by the resisting force) and the load increment(or the increment of the input energy) after the system status produces excursion.(3) Because of the characteristic of selfexcitation of lateral vibration of train-track(bridge) system,both of the load and resisting force of lateral vibration of the system is not clear.So the stability of lateral vibration status of the system must be evaluated by the increment criterion of the work done by the resisting force and the input energy,and not by the increment criterion of resisting force and load.The condition for the stability of the lateral vibration of train-track(bridge) system and no derailment of the train is put forward according to the concept that the Tacoma cable bridge will lose stability in self-excitation vibration status under the action of wind when the input energy accumulated in the course of vibration reaches the work done by the limited resisting force.That is,the work done by the limited resisting force is larger than the maximum input energy.A set of theory for random energy analysis of train derailment is proposed.And the main contents are as below.(1) Taking into account the connecting condition of wheel-rail displacement and the influence of the clearance between wheel flange and gauge line,the matrix equation of the spatial vibration of train-track (bridge) system is established to calculate the whole course of train derailment.(2) The geometric criterion of train derailment is established.(3) The method for calculating the whole course of train derailment is put forward.(4) The vibration responses of the whole course of train derailment are calculated.The relationship curve between the work done by the limited resisting force of the lateral vibration of the system and train speed is gained.And the increment expression of the work done by the limited resisting force of the lateral vibration of the system is also obtained.(5) The method for calculating the increment of the maximum input energy of the lateral vibration of the system is put forward.(6) The energy increment criteria for determining the stability status of the lateral vibration of the system and train derailment is established.The bogie frame hunting wave of a freight train on Beijing-Tonghua railway line is measured and the relationship curve between the standard deviation of the bogie frame hunting wave of the empty car and train speed is gained.The bogie frame hunting wave of a high-speed train on Qinhuangdao-Shenyang railway line for passenger traffic is also measured and the relationship curve between the standard deviation of the bogie frame hunting wave of the high speed train and train speed is obtained.A set of software TDAS v1.0 for analyzing train derailment with property right is independently developed based on the theory of random energy analysis for train derailment.According to the software,a grave derailment accident of number 33117 freight train on Changchun-tumen railway line is analyzed.Safety analyses are made of trains running on six bridges such as Nanjing Yangtz river bridge etc.with their lateral vibration amplitudes exceeding specifications.And derailment controlling of high speed trains running on supper major bridges such as Tianxinzhou combined highway and railway bridge,Hujiawan bridge and Hengyang-Xiangjiang bridge etc.on Wuhan-guangzhou railway line for passenger traffic is analyzed.All of the analysis results mentioned above have been applied by the corresponding railway departments.The preventive measures against derailment and methods for stipulating preventive standard against derailment are proposed.A derailment warning device is invented a national patent is also gained.To counter train derailment under normal condition of train operation,i.e.undefined derailment,the technical principle for a warning system against derailment is proposed. 展开更多
关键词 列车脱轨 脱轨机理 能量增量准则 构架蛇形波 脱轨控制 预防措施 预防标准 脱轨报警器 脱轨预警系统
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2016年1月寒潮天气过程极端性分析及集合预报检验 被引量:29
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作者 陶亦为 代刊 董全 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2017年第10期1176-1185,共10页
利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)再分析资料和集合预报极端天气预报指数(extreme forecast index,EFI),对2016年1月21—25日强寒潮天气环流异常性和EFI对极端低温事件的预报进行了分析和检验。中亚地区一直维持标准化异常度在3个标准... 利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)再分析资料和集合预报极端天气预报指数(extreme forecast index,EFI),对2016年1月21—25日强寒潮天气环流异常性和EFI对极端低温事件的预报进行了分析和检验。中亚地区一直维持标准化异常度在3个标准差以上的高压脊、冷涡系统不断发展增强,随着横槽转竖,冷空气爆发南下使得我国中东部出现极端低温。最低温度EFI可以提前7 d预报出低温信号,随着EFI预报时效的延长所对应的最大TS评分随之降低,对不同时效预报需选取合适的EFI阈值。对5%百分位的低温事件短期时效(1~3 d)最低温度EFI临界阈值为-0.6,中期时效(4~7 d)临界阈值为-0.5;对1%百分位的低温事件临界阈值则为-0.7。5%百分位的低温事件各时效最低温度EFI在江南、黄淮、江淮、江汉等地表现最好,华北、华南、西南、西北地区表现次之,在东北地区表现相对较差。 展开更多
关键词 寒潮 标准化异常度 集合预报 极端天气预报指数(EFI) 极端低温事件
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葫芦岛地区寒潮发生特征及成因分析
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作者 包颖 高井宝 《安徽农业科学》 CAS 北大核心 2011年第20期12345-12347,共3页
基于1960~2009年葫芦岛地区4个气象观测站的逐日气象观测资料,利用寒潮蓝色和黄色预警信号的发布标准将其分类,分别统计分析了其时间和空间的分布特征。结果表明,葫芦岛地区寒潮发生的月份从当年的9月一直到次年5月均有可能发生,出现寒... 基于1960~2009年葫芦岛地区4个气象观测站的逐日气象观测资料,利用寒潮蓝色和黄色预警信号的发布标准将其分类,分别统计分析了其时间和空间的分布特征。结果表明,葫芦岛地区寒潮发生的月份从当年的9月一直到次年5月均有可能发生,出现寒潮最多的月份是10和11月,最少的月份是5月,这主要与气候的季节性转换有关;寒潮发生次数最多时段是20世纪60年代,随着平均(最低)气温的升高,达到寒潮蓝色预警标准的次数呈减少趋势,达到寒潮黄色预警标准的寒潮发生次数与气温的变化不具有明显的相关性。从地域分布来看,出现寒潮次数最多的地方是建昌县,最少的地方是绥中县,主要受下垫面、纬度和海拔高度等因素的影响和制约。 展开更多
关键词 葫芦岛 寒潮 预警标准 时空特征 成因分析
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菏泽市近40年来寒潮统计与分析
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作者 王英 《安徽农业科学》 CAS 北大核心 2008年第24期10580-10581,共2页
利用菏泽市9个代表站1961-2000年40年的逐日温度资料,对菏泽市寒潮的发生、变化及天气气候特征进行了系统分析,并对其时空分布进行了分析。结果表明,近40年菏泽市寒潮天气出现次数整体呈减少趋势,寒潮区域分布具有一定的规律性,西... 利用菏泽市9个代表站1961-2000年40年的逐日温度资料,对菏泽市寒潮的发生、变化及天气气候特征进行了系统分析,并对其时空分布进行了分析。结果表明,近40年菏泽市寒潮天气出现次数整体呈减少趋势,寒潮区域分布具有一定的规律性,西北部偏少,中东部偏多;降温幅度有一定差异,由西北向东南递减;年际变化悬殊较大,递变规律明显,但与前期气候状况关系不明显。 展开更多
关键词 寒潮 分析 寒潮标准 统计 演变规律
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大连地区一次寒潮天气分析
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作者 宋若宁 邹琤 王桂春 《现代农业科技》 2014年第14期215-217,共3页
利用常规天气资料,应用天气分析方法,对大连北部地区2013年11月9—10日寒潮天气进行分析,结果表明:此次寒潮天气过程的环流形势为"一槽一脊"型,促使寒潮暴发的流场为横槽转竖型。高空500 hPa天气图上-44℃冷中心位于120°... 利用常规天气资料,应用天气分析方法,对大连北部地区2013年11月9—10日寒潮天气进行分析,结果表明:此次寒潮天气过程的环流形势为"一槽一脊"型,促使寒潮暴发的流场为横槽转竖型。高空500 hPa天气图上-44℃冷中心位于120°E;55°N^60°N;对应高空700 hPa天气图上冷中心为-32℃;而地面天气图上冷高压中心强度达到1 060 hPa,标志着冷空气的堆积达到了可产生寒潮的强度。由贝加尔湖暴发南下的冷空气偏北、偏东,大连地区只有最北部庄河站达到了寒潮标准,24 h内最低温度下降9.1℃。在此基础上进行分析,总结出大连地区寒潮天气预报着眼点。 展开更多
关键词 寒潮天气 寒潮标准 寒潮关键区 辽宁大连
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