With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of inv...With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments, it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout. This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions. On this basis, game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights, and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021. Finally, the GM(1,1) model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025. In conclusion, oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk, and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results. The research findings may provide scientific decisionmaking recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.展开更多
A quantitative risk assessment （QRA） based on leak detection criteria （LDC） for the design of a proposed subsea oil export pipeline is presented in this paper. The objective of this QRA/LDC study was to determine ...A quantitative risk assessment （QRA） based on leak detection criteria （LDC） for the design of a proposed subsea oil export pipeline is presented in this paper. The objective of this QRA/LDC study was to determine if current leak detection methodologies were sufficient, based on QRA results, while excluding the use of statistical leak detection; if not, an appropriate LDC for the leak detection system would need to be established. The famous UK PARLOC database was used for the calculation of pipeline failure rates, and the software POSVCM from MMS was used for oil spill simulations. QRA results revealed that the installation of a statistically based leak detection system （LDS） can significantly reduce time to leak detection, thereby mitigating the consequences of leakage. A sound LDC has been defined based on QRA study results and comments from various LDS vendors to assist the emergency response team （ERT） to quickly identify and locate leakage and employ the most effective measures to contain damage.展开更多
This paper presents a new risk assessment methodology for coal mine excavated slopes. This new empirical-statistical slope.stability assessment m. ethodology （SSAM! is intended for use by geotechnical engineers at bo...This paper presents a new risk assessment methodology for coal mine excavated slopes. This new empirical-statistical slope.stability assessment m. ethodology （SSAM! is intended for use by geotechnical engineers at both the design review and operational stages of a mine＇s life to categonse the risk of an excavated coal mine slope. A likelihood of failure is determined using a new slope stability classification system for excavated coal mine slopes developed using a database of 119 intact and failed case studies sourced from open cut coal mines in Australia. Consequence of failure is based on slope height and stand-off distance at the toe of the excavated slope. Results are presented in a new risk matrix, with slope risk being divided into low, medium and high categories. The SSAM is put forward as a new risk assess- ment methodology to assess the potential for, and consequence of, excavated coal mine slope failure. Unlike existing classification systems, assumptions about the likely failure mode or mechanism are not required. Instead, the SSAM applies an approach which compares the conditions present within the exca- vated slope face, with the known past performance of slopes with similar geotechnical and geometrical conditions, to estimate the slope＇s propensity for failure. The SSAM is novel in that it considers the depo- sitional history of strata in an excavated slope and how this sequence affects slope stability. It is further novel in that it does not require explicit measurements of intact rock, rock mass and/or defect strength to rapidly calculate a slope＇s likelihood of failure and overall risk. Ratings can be determined entirely from visual observations of the excavated slope face. The new SSAM is designed to be used in conjunction with existing slope stability assessment tools.展开更多
BACKGROUND: Ensuring about the patient's safety is the f irst vital step in improving the quality of care and the emergency ward is known as a high-risk area in treatment health care. The present study was conduct...BACKGROUND: Ensuring about the patient's safety is the f irst vital step in improving the quality of care and the emergency ward is known as a high-risk area in treatment health care. The present study was conducted to evaluate the selected risk processes of emergency surgery department of a treatment-educational Qaem center in Mashhad by using analysis method of the conditions and failure effects in health care.METHODS: In this study, in combination(qualitative action research and quantitative crosssectional), failure modes and effects of 5 high-risk procedures of the emergency surgery department were identified and analyzed according to Healthcare Failure Mode and Effects Analysis(HFMEA). To classify the failure modes from the "nursing errors in clinical management model(NECM)", the classification of the effective causes of error from "Eindhoven model" and determination of the strategies to improve from the "theory of solving problem by an inventive method" were used. To analyze the quantitative data of descriptive statistics(total points) and to analyze the qualitative data, content analysis and agreement of comments of the members were used.RESULTS: In 5 selected processes by "voting method using rating", 23 steps, 61 sub-processes and 217 potential failure modes were identifi ed by HFMEA. 25(11.5%) failure modes as the high risk errors were detected and transferred to the decision tree. The most and the least failure modes were placed in the categories of care errors(54.7%) and knowledge and skill(9.5%), respectively. Also, 29.4% of preventive measures were in the category of human resource management strategy.CONCLUSION: "Revision and re-engineering of processes", "continuous monitoring of the works", "preparation and revision of operating procedures and policies", "developing the criteria for evaluating the performance of the personnel", "designing a suitable educational content for needs of employee", "training patients", "reducing the workload and power shortage", "improving team communication" and "preventive management of equipment's" were on the agenda as the guidelines.展开更多
A comprehensive project evaluation and decision-making method considering multiple objectives,stakeholders,and attributes of proposed traffic treatments is inherently complicated.Although individual techniques in eval...A comprehensive project evaluation and decision-making method considering multiple objectives,stakeholders,and attributes of proposed traffic treatments is inherently complicated.Although individual techniques in evaluating operations,safety,economic,and stakeholder objectives are available,a practical method that integrates all these risk factors and their uncertainties into a multiattribute decision-making tool is absent.A three-level project decision-making process was developed to model and assess multiple-attribute risk in a proposed traffic treatment from the perspective of multiple stakeholders.The direct benefits from reducing delay and safety risk(basic objectives of traffic treatments) are computed in Level 1 with established methods.Feasibility and performance analysis in Level 2 examine site-specific constraints and conduct detailed performance analysis using advanced analysis tools.In Level 3,this paper introduces an innovative and integrated multiple attributes evaluation process under fuzziness and uncertainty(MAFU) process for evaluation and decision-making.The MAFU is a comprehensive and systematic assessment and decision-making procedure that can assess the magnitudes of project performance and to integrate conflicting interests and tradeoffs among stakeholders.A case study illustrates theapplication of MAFU for the selection of a traffic alternative involving several evaluation attributes and stakeholders.Results show that the MAFU produced the smallest variance for each alternative.With traditional cost–benefit evaluation methods,the uncertainty associated with performance of a traffic project in terms of operation,safety,environmental impacts,etc.,is unrestricted and cumulative.Therefore,a reliable multi-attribute evaluation of complex traffic projects should not be made with conventional cost–benefit analysis alone but with a process like MAFU.展开更多
In this paper, we propose a non-cooperative differential game theory based resource allocation approach for the network security risk assessment. For the risk assessment, the resource will be used for risk assess, inc...In this paper, we propose a non-cooperative differential game theory based resource allocation approach for the network security risk assessment. For the risk assessment, the resource will be used for risk assess, including response cost and response negative cost. The whole assessment process is considered as a differential game for optimal resource control. The proposed scheme can be obtained through the Nash Equilibrium. It is proved that the game theory based algorithm is applicable and the optimal resource level can be achieved based on the proposed algorithm.展开更多
In this paper a comprehensive review is presented of risk assessment techniques adopted in the mining industry worldwide;those techniques applied in other hazardous industries and potential techniques which are robust...In this paper a comprehensive review is presented of risk assessment techniques adopted in the mining industry worldwide;those techniques applied in other hazardous industries and potential techniques which are robust,mature and holistic and can be implemented for the Indian mining industry in future to enhance workplace safety are also presented.Findings from the review are indicative of the fact that socio-technical complexity of industrial systems has increased.Recent developments in the area of risk management highlight the need for implementation of the latest robust techniques of risk assessment in the mining sector.In consideration of the present scenario,the development of a model for risk analysis having an interface between hazard identification and risk assessment,along with an interface between risk assessment and accident causation to predict if an accident will occur under given conditions,has become dire necessity.This will increase hazard awareness and enable mine management to select and prioritize problem areas and identify safety system weaknesses in both underground and surface mining.This will ultimately help decision makers,risk analysts and safety managers make a major contribution in the development of workplace safety with a near-to-zero accident rate.展开更多
Since leaks in high-pressure pipelines transporting crude oil can cause severe economic losses,a reliable leak risk assessment can assist in developing an effective pipeline maintenance plan and avoiding unexpected in...Since leaks in high-pressure pipelines transporting crude oil can cause severe economic losses,a reliable leak risk assessment can assist in developing an effective pipeline maintenance plan and avoiding unexpected incidents.The fast and accurate leak detection methods are essential for maintaining pipeline safety in pipeline reliability engineering.Current oil pipeline leakage signals are insufficient for feature extraction,while the training time for traditional leakage prediction models is too long.A new leak detection method is proposed based on time-frequency features and the Genetic Algorithm-Levenberg Marquardt(GA-LM)classification model for predicting the leakage status of oil pipelines.The signal that has been processed is transformed to the time and frequency domain,allowing full expression of the original signal.The traditional Back Propagation(BP)neural network is optimized by the Genetic Algorithm(GA)and Levenberg Marquardt(LM)algorithms.The results show that the recognition effect of a combined feature parameter is superior to that of a single feature parameter.The Accuracy,Precision,Recall,and F1score of the GA-LM model is 95%,93.5%,96.7%,and 95.1%,respectively,which proves that the GA-LM model has a good predictive effect and excellent stability for positive and negative samples.The proposed GA-LM model can obviously reduce training time and improve recognition efficiency.In addition,considering that a large number of samples are required for model training,a wavelet threshold method is proposed to generate sample data with higher reliability.The research results can provide an effective theoretical and technical reference for the leakage risk assessment of the actual oil pipelines.展开更多
In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic ...In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic energy flow calculation methods and risk assessment theories applicable to integrated energy systems are crucial.This study proposed a probabilistic energy flow calculation method based on polynomial chaos expansion for an electric-heat-gas integrated energy system.The method accurately and efficiently calculated the over-limit probability of the system state variables,considering the coupling conditions of electricity,heat,and gas,as well as uncertainties and correlations in renewable energy unit outputs and multiple types of loads.To further evaluate and quantify the impact of uncertainty factors on the over-limit risk,a global sensitivity analysis method for the integrated energy system based on the analysis of covariance theory is proposed.This method considered the source-load correlation and aimed to identify the key uncertainty factors that influence stable operation.Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved accuracy to that of the Monte Carlo method while significantly reducing calculation time.It effectively quantified the over-limit risk under the presence of multiple source-load uncertainties.展开更多
Increasing incidents of indoor air quality(IAQ) related complaints lead us to the fact that IAQ has become a significant occupational health and environmental issue. However, how to effectively evaluate IAQ under diff...Increasing incidents of indoor air quality(IAQ) related complaints lead us to the fact that IAQ has become a significant occupational health and environmental issue. However, how to effectively evaluate IAQ under different scale of multiple indicators is still a challenge. The traditional single-indicator method is subjected to uncertainties in assessing IAQ due to different subjectivity on good or bad quality and scalar differences of data set. In this study, a multilevel integrated weighted average IAQ method including initial walking through assessment(IWA) and two-layers weighted average method are developed and applied to evaluate IAQ of the laboratory building at the University of Regina in Canada. Some important chemical parameters related to IAQ in terms of volatile organic compounds(VOCs), methanol(HCHO), carbon dioxide(CO2), and carbon monoxide(CO) are evaluated based on 5 months continuous monitoring data. The new integrated assessment result can not only indicates the risk of an individual parameter, but also able to quantify the overall IAQ risk on the sampling site. Finally, some recommendations based on the result are proposed to address sustainable IAQ practices in the sampling area.展开更多
Interplanetary meteoroids and space debris can impact satellites orbiting the Earth or spacecraft traveling to the Moon.Targeting China Space Station(CSS),7 satellites selected from the constellation of Beidou Navigat...Interplanetary meteoroids and space debris can impact satellites orbiting the Earth or spacecraft traveling to the Moon.Targeting China Space Station(CSS),7 satellites selected from the constellation of Beidou Navigation Satellite System Phase III(BDS-3),and 3 spacecraft orbiting the Moon,we have adopted in the paper the Meteoroid Engineering Model 3,Divine-Staubach meteoroid environment model,and Jenniskens-McBride meteoroid steam model to analyze the meteoroid environment with the mass range of 10–6~10 g.Orbital Debris Engineering Model 3.1 space debris model is used to analyze the orbital debris environment faced by these satellites.The flux of space debris with a size larger than 100μm is compared with that of the meteoroids.The results show that the space debris flux encountered by China Space Station is much higher than that of the meteoroids with sizes in the above range.And quite the opposite,the meteoroids flux impacting the 7 satellites from the BDS-3 is higher.Upon adopting the double-layer Whipple protection measure,the catastrophic collision flux of these satellites encountering meteoroids is about 10–6 times of that without protection,or even less,implying that the Whipple protection effectively guarantees the safety of the satellites in orbit.Besides,it is also found that the flux of the high-density meteoroid population encountered by each satellite is greater than that of the low-density population,whereas the impact velocity is lower for each satellite.These results can aid the orbit selection and the protection design for satellites and spacecraft.展开更多
In order to protect the website and assess the security risk of website, a novel website security risk assessment method is proposed based on the improved Bayesian attack graph(I-BAG) model. First, the Improved Bayesi...In order to protect the website and assess the security risk of website, a novel website security risk assessment method is proposed based on the improved Bayesian attack graph(I-BAG) model. First, the Improved Bayesian attack graph model is established, which takes attack benefits and threat factors into consideration. Compared with the existing attack graph models, it can better describe the website's security risk. Then, the improved Bayesian attack graph is constructed with optimized website attack graph, attack benefit nodes, threat factor nodes and the local conditional probability distribution of each node, which is calculated accordingly. Finally, website's attack probability and risk value are calculated on the level of nodes, hosts and the whole website separately. The experimental results demonstrate that the risk evaluating method based on I-BAG model proposed is a effective way for assessing the website security risk.展开更多
In maritime safety research,risk is assessed usually within the framework of formal safety assessment(FSA),which provides a formal and systematic methodology to improve the safety of lives,assets,and the environment.A...In maritime safety research,risk is assessed usually within the framework of formal safety assessment(FSA),which provides a formal and systematic methodology to improve the safety of lives,assets,and the environment.A bespoke application of FSA to mitigate accidents in marine seismic surveying is put forward in this paper,with the aim of improving the safety of seismic vessel operations,within the context of developing an economically viable strategy.The work herein takes a close look at the hazards in North Sea offshore seismic surveying,in order to identify critical risk factors,leading to marine seismic survey accidents.The risk factors leading to undesirable events are analysed both qualitatively and quantitatively.A risk matrix is introduced to screen the identified undesirable events.Further to the screening,Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)is presented to investigate and analyse the most critical risks of seismic survey operation,taking into account the lack of historical data.The obtained results show that man overboard(MOB)event is a major risk factor in marine seismic survey operation;lack of training on safe work practice,slippery deck as a result of rain,snow or water splash,sea state affecting human judgement,and poor communication are identified as the critical risk contributors to the MOB event.Consequently,the risk control options are focused on the critical risk contributors for decision-making.Lastly,suggestions for the introduction and development of the FSA methodology are highlighted for safer marine and offshore operations in general.展开更多
Considering the circumstances of Chinese oil companies and the latest development of international politics and world oil situation, this paper analyzes the implication and main factors of international political risk...Considering the circumstances of Chinese oil companies and the latest development of international politics and world oil situation, this paper analyzes the implication and main factors of international political risk for Chinese oil companies, and presents the principles, mode and scoring method for the assessment of international political risk. Strategies and suggestions to manage international political risk in their overseas business are provided for Chinese oil companies.展开更多
The living area of an offshore platform is the main living place for operators in offshore oil and gas fields.Fire risk assessment plays an important role in the safety of personnel in offshore platforms.In this paper...The living area of an offshore platform is the main living place for operators in offshore oil and gas fields.Fire risk assessment plays an important role in the safety of personnel in offshore platforms.In this paper,a fire risk assessment mathematical model for offshore platfoms is proposed based on a comprehensive safety assessment method.The concept of danger time is presented according to the evaluation criteria of safe evacuation.The fire risk of offshore platforms is assessed by combining probability statistics with numerical simulation.The fire risk is quantitatively assessed by using an N500 deep water semi-submersible support platform as an example.According to the FN curve,fire frequency,fire escalation probability,and casualty probability,the rationality of marine general layout is analyzed,and the general layout design could be optimized to reduce the fire risk.展开更多
Accurately predicting downhole risk before drilling in new exploration areas is one of the difficulties.Using intelligent algorithms to explore the complex relationship between multi-source data and downhole risk is a...Accurately predicting downhole risk before drilling in new exploration areas is one of the difficulties.Using intelligent algorithms to explore the complex relationship between multi-source data and downhole risk is a hot research topic and frontier in this field.However,due to the small number and uneven distribution of drilled wells in new exploration areas and the lack of sample data related to risk,the training model has insufficient generalization ability,and thus the prediction is not effective.In this paper,a drilling risk profile(depth domain)rich in geological and engineering information is constructed by introducing a quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk of drilled wells,which can provide sufficient risk sample data for model training and thus solve the small sample problem.For the problem of uneven distribution of drilling wells in new exploration areas,the concept of virtual wells and their deployment methods were proposed.Besides,two methods for calculating rock mechanical parameters of virtual wells were proposed,and the accuracy and applicability of the two methods are analyzed.The LSTM deep learning model was optimized to tap the quantitative relationship between drilling risk profiles and multi-source data(e.g.,seismic,logging,and rock mechanical parameters).The model was validated to have an average relative error of 9.19%.The quantitative prediction of the drilling risk profile of the virtual well was achieved using the trained LSTM model and the calculation of the relevant parameters of the virtual well.Finally,based on the sequential Gaussian simulation method and the risk distribution of drilled and virtual wells,a regional 3D drilling risk model was constructed.The analysis of real cases shows that the addition of virtual wells can significantly improve the identification of regional drilling risks and the prediction accuracy of pre-drill drilling risks in unexplored areas can be improved by up to 21%compared with the 3D risk model constructed based on drilled wells only.展开更多
Coal occupies a dominant position in China＇s national economy and is an essential energy source for future industrial development. To inform the efficient and sustainable development of the coal industry, this paper ...Coal occupies a dominant position in China＇s national economy and is an essential energy source for future industrial development. To inform the efficient and sustainable development of the coal industry, this paper analyzes the sources of strategic risk for coal science and technology enterprises using 3 first-class indicators, 10 second-level indicators, and 37 observation points established through the existing research literature and experience. Moreover, in accordance to the obtained initial index data, the selected indicators have been tested and screened using reliability and membership degree analyses to remove redundant variables, avoid juxtaposition of risk factors at different levels, and reduce the influ- ence of some tiny risk factors for enterprise strategic risk. Then, factor analysis of external environment factor sub-scale was carried out. Factors are extracted according to a standard characteristic value greater than 1. Variables with high coefficients are classified into one factor category; and finally, 3 first-class indicators. 8 second-level indicators, and 37 observation noints are reconstructed.展开更多
Understanding and monitoring the cross-contamination of food allergens is crucial for safeguarding public health and ensuring food safety.Food allergen risk assessment,derived from classical toxicological principles,c...Understanding and monitoring the cross-contamination of food allergens is crucial for safeguarding public health and ensuring food safety.Food allergen risk assessment,derived from classical toxicological principles,can identify and quantify the risk of allergies.This study aimed to investigate the risk of wheat allergic reactions to prepackaged foods from China through the utilization of food allergen risk assessment.A total of 575 products have been surveyed,wheat/gluten,milk and egg were major allergens labelled on products.According to voluntary incidental trace allergen labelling 3.0(VITAL®3.0)program,the number of products belonged to Action Level 2 were 303.Integration of precautionary allergen labeling(PAL)analysis indicated that 9.57%products would pose a potential risk to wheat allergic individuals.The probabilistic risk assessment results suggest that 7984 allergic reactions may arise among wheat-allergic consumers during 10000 eating occasions due to the consumption of pre-packaged food products with incorrect wheat-related allergen labelling.This study demonstrated that a risk assessment-based approach can support the guidance of allergen labelling and management of food allergen for pre-packaged food products,providing protection for allergic individuals in food consumption and for food manufacturers in food production and trade.展开更多
The pressure and temperature increase resulting from the impact of different threats onto target materials is analyzed with a unified laboratory-scale setup.This allows deriving qualitative information on the occurrin...The pressure and temperature increase resulting from the impact of different threats onto target materials is analyzed with a unified laboratory-scale setup.This allows deriving qualitative information on the occurring phenomenology as well as quantitative statements about the relative effects sizes as a function of target material and threat.The considered target materials are steel,aluminum,and magnesium.As threats,kinetic energy penetrator,explosively formed projectile,and shaped charge jet are used.For the investigated combinations,the measured overpressures vary by a factor of up to 5 for a variation of the material,by a factor of up to 7 for a variation of the threat,and by a factor larger than 15for a simultaneous variation of both.The obtained results as well as the experimental approach are relevant for the basic understanding of impact effects and risks due to material reactivity.The paper combines two main aims.Firstly,to provide a summary of own prior work in a coherent journal article and,secondly,to review and discuss these earlier results with a new perspective.展开更多
ObjectiveTo validate a modified HEART [History, Electrocardiograph （ECG）, Age, Risk factors and Troponin] risk score in chest pain patients with suspected non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome （NSTE-ACS...ObjectiveTo validate a modified HEART [History, Electrocardiograph （ECG）, Age, Risk factors and Troponin] risk score in chest pain patients with suspected non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome （NSTE-ACS） in the emergency department （ED）.Methods This retrospective cohort study used a prospectively acquired database and chest pain patients admitted to the emergency department with suspected NSTE-ACS were enrolled. Data recorded on arrival at the ED were used. The serum sample of high-sensitivity cardiac Troponin I other than conventional cardiac Troponin I used in the HEART risk score was tested. The modified HEART risk score was calculated. The end point was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events （MACE） defined as a composite of acute myocardial infarction （AMI）, percu-taneous intervention （PCI）, coronary artery bypass graft （CABG）, or all-cause death, within three months after initial presentation.Results A total of 1,300 patients were enrolled. A total of 606 patients （46.6%） had a MACE within three months： 205 patients （15.8%） were diag-nosed with AMI, 465 patients （35.8%） underwent PCI, and 119 patients （9.2%） underwent CABG. There were 10 （0.8%） deaths. A progres-sive, significant pattern of increasing event rate was observed as the score increased （P ＆lt; 0.001 byχ2 for trend）. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.84. All patients were classified into three groups： low risk （score 0-2）, intermediate risk （score 3-4）, and high risk （score 5-10）. Event rates were 1.1%, 18.5%, and 67.0%, respectively （P ＆lt; 0.001）.ConclusionsThe modified HEART risk score was validated in chest pain patients with suspected NSTE-ACS and may complement MACE risk assessment and patients triage in the ED. A prospective study of the score is warranted.展开更多
基金the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71934004)Key Projects of the National Social Science Foundation(23AZD065)the Project of the CNOOC Energy Economics Institute(EEI-2022-IESA0009)。
文摘With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments, it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout. This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions. On this basis, game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights, and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021. Finally, the GM(1,1) model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025. In conclusion, oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk, and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results. The research findings may provide scientific decisionmaking recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.
文摘A quantitative risk assessment （QRA） based on leak detection criteria （LDC） for the design of a proposed subsea oil export pipeline is presented in this paper. The objective of this QRA/LDC study was to determine if current leak detection methodologies were sufficient, based on QRA results, while excluding the use of statistical leak detection; if not, an appropriate LDC for the leak detection system would need to be established. The famous UK PARLOC database was used for the calculation of pipeline failure rates, and the software POSVCM from MMS was used for oil spill simulations. QRA results revealed that the installation of a statistically based leak detection system （LDS） can significantly reduce time to leak detection, thereby mitigating the consequences of leakage. A sound LDC has been defined based on QRA study results and comments from various LDS vendors to assist the emergency response team （ERT） to quickly identify and locate leakage and employ the most effective measures to contain damage.
基金funded by the Australian Coal Association Research Program(ACARP)
文摘This paper presents a new risk assessment methodology for coal mine excavated slopes. This new empirical-statistical slope.stability assessment m. ethodology （SSAM! is intended for use by geotechnical engineers at both the design review and operational stages of a mine＇s life to categonse the risk of an excavated coal mine slope. A likelihood of failure is determined using a new slope stability classification system for excavated coal mine slopes developed using a database of 119 intact and failed case studies sourced from open cut coal mines in Australia. Consequence of failure is based on slope height and stand-off distance at the toe of the excavated slope. Results are presented in a new risk matrix, with slope risk being divided into low, medium and high categories. The SSAM is put forward as a new risk assess- ment methodology to assess the potential for, and consequence of, excavated coal mine slope failure. Unlike existing classification systems, assumptions about the likely failure mode or mechanism are not required. Instead, the SSAM applies an approach which compares the conditions present within the exca- vated slope face, with the known past performance of slopes with similar geotechnical and geometrical conditions, to estimate the slope＇s propensity for failure. The SSAM is novel in that it considers the depo- sitional history of strata in an excavated slope and how this sequence affects slope stability. It is further novel in that it does not require explicit measurements of intact rock, rock mass and/or defect strength to rapidly calculate a slope＇s likelihood of failure and overall risk. Ratings can be determined entirely from visual observations of the excavated slope face. The new SSAM is designed to be used in conjunction with existing slope stability assessment tools.
文摘BACKGROUND: Ensuring about the patient's safety is the f irst vital step in improving the quality of care and the emergency ward is known as a high-risk area in treatment health care. The present study was conducted to evaluate the selected risk processes of emergency surgery department of a treatment-educational Qaem center in Mashhad by using analysis method of the conditions and failure effects in health care.METHODS: In this study, in combination(qualitative action research and quantitative crosssectional), failure modes and effects of 5 high-risk procedures of the emergency surgery department were identified and analyzed according to Healthcare Failure Mode and Effects Analysis(HFMEA). To classify the failure modes from the "nursing errors in clinical management model(NECM)", the classification of the effective causes of error from "Eindhoven model" and determination of the strategies to improve from the "theory of solving problem by an inventive method" were used. To analyze the quantitative data of descriptive statistics(total points) and to analyze the qualitative data, content analysis and agreement of comments of the members were used.RESULTS: In 5 selected processes by "voting method using rating", 23 steps, 61 sub-processes and 217 potential failure modes were identifi ed by HFMEA. 25(11.5%) failure modes as the high risk errors were detected and transferred to the decision tree. The most and the least failure modes were placed in the categories of care errors(54.7%) and knowledge and skill(9.5%), respectively. Also, 29.4% of preventive measures were in the category of human resource management strategy.CONCLUSION: "Revision and re-engineering of processes", "continuous monitoring of the works", "preparation and revision of operating procedures and policies", "developing the criteria for evaluating the performance of the personnel", "designing a suitable educational content for needs of employee", "training patients", "reducing the workload and power shortage", "improving team communication" and "preventive management of equipment's" were on the agenda as the guidelines.
文摘A comprehensive project evaluation and decision-making method considering multiple objectives,stakeholders,and attributes of proposed traffic treatments is inherently complicated.Although individual techniques in evaluating operations,safety,economic,and stakeholder objectives are available,a practical method that integrates all these risk factors and their uncertainties into a multiattribute decision-making tool is absent.A three-level project decision-making process was developed to model and assess multiple-attribute risk in a proposed traffic treatment from the perspective of multiple stakeholders.The direct benefits from reducing delay and safety risk(basic objectives of traffic treatments) are computed in Level 1 with established methods.Feasibility and performance analysis in Level 2 examine site-specific constraints and conduct detailed performance analysis using advanced analysis tools.In Level 3,this paper introduces an innovative and integrated multiple attributes evaluation process under fuzziness and uncertainty(MAFU) process for evaluation and decision-making.The MAFU is a comprehensive and systematic assessment and decision-making procedure that can assess the magnitudes of project performance and to integrate conflicting interests and tradeoffs among stakeholders.A case study illustrates theapplication of MAFU for the selection of a traffic alternative involving several evaluation attributes and stakeholders.Results show that the MAFU produced the smallest variance for each alternative.With traditional cost–benefit evaluation methods,the uncertainty associated with performance of a traffic project in terms of operation,safety,environmental impacts,etc.,is unrestricted and cumulative.Therefore,a reliable multi-attribute evaluation of complex traffic projects should not be made with conventional cost–benefit analysis alone but with a process like MAFU.
基金supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2015M570936)National Science Foundation Project of P.R.China(No.61501026,61272506)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.FRF-TP-15032A1)
文摘In this paper, we propose a non-cooperative differential game theory based resource allocation approach for the network security risk assessment. For the risk assessment, the resource will be used for risk assess, including response cost and response negative cost. The whole assessment process is considered as a differential game for optimal resource control. The proposed scheme can be obtained through the Nash Equilibrium. It is proved that the game theory based algorithm is applicable and the optimal resource level can be achieved based on the proposed algorithm.
文摘In this paper a comprehensive review is presented of risk assessment techniques adopted in the mining industry worldwide;those techniques applied in other hazardous industries and potential techniques which are robust,mature and holistic and can be implemented for the Indian mining industry in future to enhance workplace safety are also presented.Findings from the review are indicative of the fact that socio-technical complexity of industrial systems has increased.Recent developments in the area of risk management highlight the need for implementation of the latest robust techniques of risk assessment in the mining sector.In consideration of the present scenario,the development of a model for risk analysis having an interface between hazard identification and risk assessment,along with an interface between risk assessment and accident causation to predict if an accident will occur under given conditions,has become dire necessity.This will increase hazard awareness and enable mine management to select and prioritize problem areas and identify safety system weaknesses in both underground and surface mining.This will ultimately help decision makers,risk analysts and safety managers make a major contribution in the development of workplace safety with a near-to-zero accident rate.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China:Design and Key Technology Research of Non-metallic Flexible Risers for Deep Sea Mining(2022YFC2803701)The General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(52071336,52374022).
文摘Since leaks in high-pressure pipelines transporting crude oil can cause severe economic losses,a reliable leak risk assessment can assist in developing an effective pipeline maintenance plan and avoiding unexpected incidents.The fast and accurate leak detection methods are essential for maintaining pipeline safety in pipeline reliability engineering.Current oil pipeline leakage signals are insufficient for feature extraction,while the training time for traditional leakage prediction models is too long.A new leak detection method is proposed based on time-frequency features and the Genetic Algorithm-Levenberg Marquardt(GA-LM)classification model for predicting the leakage status of oil pipelines.The signal that has been processed is transformed to the time and frequency domain,allowing full expression of the original signal.The traditional Back Propagation(BP)neural network is optimized by the Genetic Algorithm(GA)and Levenberg Marquardt(LM)algorithms.The results show that the recognition effect of a combined feature parameter is superior to that of a single feature parameter.The Accuracy,Precision,Recall,and F1score of the GA-LM model is 95%,93.5%,96.7%,and 95.1%,respectively,which proves that the GA-LM model has a good predictive effect and excellent stability for positive and negative samples.The proposed GA-LM model can obviously reduce training time and improve recognition efficiency.In addition,considering that a large number of samples are required for model training,a wavelet threshold method is proposed to generate sample data with higher reliability.The research results can provide an effective theoretical and technical reference for the leakage risk assessment of the actual oil pipelines.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51977005)。
文摘In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic energy flow calculation methods and risk assessment theories applicable to integrated energy systems are crucial.This study proposed a probabilistic energy flow calculation method based on polynomial chaos expansion for an electric-heat-gas integrated energy system.The method accurately and efficiently calculated the over-limit probability of the system state variables,considering the coupling conditions of electricity,heat,and gas,as well as uncertainties and correlations in renewable energy unit outputs and multiple types of loads.To further evaluate and quantify the impact of uncertainty factors on the over-limit risk,a global sensitivity analysis method for the integrated energy system based on the analysis of covariance theory is proposed.This method considered the source-load correlation and aimed to identify the key uncertainty factors that influence stable operation.Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved accuracy to that of the Monte Carlo method while significantly reducing calculation time.It effectively quantified the over-limit risk under the presence of multiple source-load uncertainties.
文摘Increasing incidents of indoor air quality(IAQ) related complaints lead us to the fact that IAQ has become a significant occupational health and environmental issue. However, how to effectively evaluate IAQ under different scale of multiple indicators is still a challenge. The traditional single-indicator method is subjected to uncertainties in assessing IAQ due to different subjectivity on good or bad quality and scalar differences of data set. In this study, a multilevel integrated weighted average IAQ method including initial walking through assessment(IWA) and two-layers weighted average method are developed and applied to evaluate IAQ of the laboratory building at the University of Regina in Canada. Some important chemical parameters related to IAQ in terms of volatile organic compounds(VOCs), methanol(HCHO), carbon dioxide(CO2), and carbon monoxide(CO) are evaluated based on 5 months continuous monitoring data. The new integrated assessment result can not only indicates the risk of an individual parameter, but also able to quantify the overall IAQ risk on the sampling site. Finally, some recommendations based on the result are proposed to address sustainable IAQ practices in the sampling area.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42074224)Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(ZDRE-KT-2021-3)Pandeng Program of National Space Science Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences。
文摘Interplanetary meteoroids and space debris can impact satellites orbiting the Earth or spacecraft traveling to the Moon.Targeting China Space Station(CSS),7 satellites selected from the constellation of Beidou Navigation Satellite System Phase III(BDS-3),and 3 spacecraft orbiting the Moon,we have adopted in the paper the Meteoroid Engineering Model 3,Divine-Staubach meteoroid environment model,and Jenniskens-McBride meteoroid steam model to analyze the meteoroid environment with the mass range of 10–6~10 g.Orbital Debris Engineering Model 3.1 space debris model is used to analyze the orbital debris environment faced by these satellites.The flux of space debris with a size larger than 100μm is compared with that of the meteoroids.The results show that the space debris flux encountered by China Space Station is much higher than that of the meteoroids with sizes in the above range.And quite the opposite,the meteoroids flux impacting the 7 satellites from the BDS-3 is higher.Upon adopting the double-layer Whipple protection measure,the catastrophic collision flux of these satellites encountering meteoroids is about 10–6 times of that without protection,or even less,implying that the Whipple protection effectively guarantees the safety of the satellites in orbit.Besides,it is also found that the flux of the high-density meteoroid population encountered by each satellite is greater than that of the low-density population,whereas the impact velocity is lower for each satellite.These results can aid the orbit selection and the protection design for satellites and spacecraft.
基金supported by the project of the State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 90818021)supported by a grant from the national high technology research and development program of China (863program) (No.2012AA012903)
文摘In order to protect the website and assess the security risk of website, a novel website security risk assessment method is proposed based on the improved Bayesian attack graph(I-BAG) model. First, the Improved Bayesian attack graph model is established, which takes attack benefits and threat factors into consideration. Compared with the existing attack graph models, it can better describe the website's security risk. Then, the improved Bayesian attack graph is constructed with optimized website attack graph, attack benefit nodes, threat factor nodes and the local conditional probability distribution of each node, which is calculated accordingly. Finally, website's attack probability and risk value are calculated on the level of nodes, hosts and the whole website separately. The experimental results demonstrate that the risk evaluating method based on I-BAG model proposed is a effective way for assessing the website security risk.
基金This project"Formal Safety Assessment of a Marine Seismic Survey Vessel Operation,Incorporating Risk Matrix and Fault Tree Analysis"has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 730888.
文摘In maritime safety research,risk is assessed usually within the framework of formal safety assessment(FSA),which provides a formal and systematic methodology to improve the safety of lives,assets,and the environment.A bespoke application of FSA to mitigate accidents in marine seismic surveying is put forward in this paper,with the aim of improving the safety of seismic vessel operations,within the context of developing an economically viable strategy.The work herein takes a close look at the hazards in North Sea offshore seismic surveying,in order to identify critical risk factors,leading to marine seismic survey accidents.The risk factors leading to undesirable events are analysed both qualitatively and quantitatively.A risk matrix is introduced to screen the identified undesirable events.Further to the screening,Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)is presented to investigate and analyse the most critical risks of seismic survey operation,taking into account the lack of historical data.The obtained results show that man overboard(MOB)event is a major risk factor in marine seismic survey operation;lack of training on safe work practice,slippery deck as a result of rain,snow or water splash,sea state affecting human judgement,and poor communication are identified as the critical risk contributors to the MOB event.Consequently,the risk control options are focused on the critical risk contributors for decision-making.Lastly,suggestions for the introduction and development of the FSA methodology are highlighted for safer marine and offshore operations in general.
文摘Considering the circumstances of Chinese oil companies and the latest development of international politics and world oil situation, this paper analyzes the implication and main factors of international political risk for Chinese oil companies, and presents the principles, mode and scoring method for the assessment of international political risk. Strategies and suggestions to manage international political risk in their overseas business are provided for Chinese oil companies.
基金supported by the Emergency and Escape Technology for Personnel in Large Living Areas on the Offshore Platform (KY10100170137)the Key Technologies for Design and Construction of Polar Small Cruise Ships+1 种基金the Key Technologies for Design and Construction of Medium-Sized Cruise Shipsthe Joint Fund for Pre-Researched Shipbuilding Industry (6141B042851)。
文摘The living area of an offshore platform is the main living place for operators in offshore oil and gas fields.Fire risk assessment plays an important role in the safety of personnel in offshore platforms.In this paper,a fire risk assessment mathematical model for offshore platfoms is proposed based on a comprehensive safety assessment method.The concept of danger time is presented according to the evaluation criteria of safe evacuation.The fire risk of offshore platforms is assessed by combining probability statistics with numerical simulation.The fire risk is quantitatively assessed by using an N500 deep water semi-submersible support platform as an example.According to the FN curve,fire frequency,fire escalation probability,and casualty probability,the rationality of marine general layout is analyzed,and the general layout design could be optimized to reduce the fire risk.
基金General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(52274024,52074326)。
文摘Accurately predicting downhole risk before drilling in new exploration areas is one of the difficulties.Using intelligent algorithms to explore the complex relationship between multi-source data and downhole risk is a hot research topic and frontier in this field.However,due to the small number and uneven distribution of drilled wells in new exploration areas and the lack of sample data related to risk,the training model has insufficient generalization ability,and thus the prediction is not effective.In this paper,a drilling risk profile(depth domain)rich in geological and engineering information is constructed by introducing a quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk of drilled wells,which can provide sufficient risk sample data for model training and thus solve the small sample problem.For the problem of uneven distribution of drilling wells in new exploration areas,the concept of virtual wells and their deployment methods were proposed.Besides,two methods for calculating rock mechanical parameters of virtual wells were proposed,and the accuracy and applicability of the two methods are analyzed.The LSTM deep learning model was optimized to tap the quantitative relationship between drilling risk profiles and multi-source data(e.g.,seismic,logging,and rock mechanical parameters).The model was validated to have an average relative error of 9.19%.The quantitative prediction of the drilling risk profile of the virtual well was achieved using the trained LSTM model and the calculation of the relevant parameters of the virtual well.Finally,based on the sequential Gaussian simulation method and the risk distribution of drilled and virtual wells,a regional 3D drilling risk model was constructed.The analysis of real cases shows that the addition of virtual wells can significantly improve the identification of regional drilling risks and the prediction accuracy of pre-drill drilling risks in unexplored areas can be improved by up to 21%compared with the 3D risk model constructed based on drilled wells only.
文摘Coal occupies a dominant position in China＇s national economy and is an essential energy source for future industrial development. To inform the efficient and sustainable development of the coal industry, this paper analyzes the sources of strategic risk for coal science and technology enterprises using 3 first-class indicators, 10 second-level indicators, and 37 observation points established through the existing research literature and experience. Moreover, in accordance to the obtained initial index data, the selected indicators have been tested and screened using reliability and membership degree analyses to remove redundant variables, avoid juxtaposition of risk factors at different levels, and reduce the influ- ence of some tiny risk factors for enterprise strategic risk. Then, factor analysis of external environment factor sub-scale was carried out. Factors are extracted according to a standard characteristic value greater than 1. Variables with high coefficients are classified into one factor category; and finally, 3 first-class indicators. 8 second-level indicators, and 37 observation noints are reconstructed.
基金supported by the Central Government Guide Local Special Fund Project for Scientific and Technological Development of Jiangxi Province(20221ZDD02001).
文摘Understanding and monitoring the cross-contamination of food allergens is crucial for safeguarding public health and ensuring food safety.Food allergen risk assessment,derived from classical toxicological principles,can identify and quantify the risk of allergies.This study aimed to investigate the risk of wheat allergic reactions to prepackaged foods from China through the utilization of food allergen risk assessment.A total of 575 products have been surveyed,wheat/gluten,milk and egg were major allergens labelled on products.According to voluntary incidental trace allergen labelling 3.0(VITAL®3.0)program,the number of products belonged to Action Level 2 were 303.Integration of precautionary allergen labeling(PAL)analysis indicated that 9.57%products would pose a potential risk to wheat allergic individuals.The probabilistic risk assessment results suggest that 7984 allergic reactions may arise among wheat-allergic consumers during 10000 eating occasions due to the consumption of pre-packaged food products with incorrect wheat-related allergen labelling.This study demonstrated that a risk assessment-based approach can support the guidance of allergen labelling and management of food allergen for pre-packaged food products,providing protection for allergic individuals in food consumption and for food manufacturers in food production and trade.
文摘The pressure and temperature increase resulting from the impact of different threats onto target materials is analyzed with a unified laboratory-scale setup.This allows deriving qualitative information on the occurring phenomenology as well as quantitative statements about the relative effects sizes as a function of target material and threat.The considered target materials are steel,aluminum,and magnesium.As threats,kinetic energy penetrator,explosively formed projectile,and shaped charge jet are used.For the investigated combinations,the measured overpressures vary by a factor of up to 5 for a variation of the material,by a factor of up to 7 for a variation of the threat,and by a factor larger than 15for a simultaneous variation of both.The obtained results as well as the experimental approach are relevant for the basic understanding of impact effects and risks due to material reactivity.The paper combines two main aims.Firstly,to provide a summary of own prior work in a coherent journal article and,secondly,to review and discuss these earlier results with a new perspective.
文摘ObjectiveTo validate a modified HEART [History, Electrocardiograph （ECG）, Age, Risk factors and Troponin] risk score in chest pain patients with suspected non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome （NSTE-ACS） in the emergency department （ED）.Methods This retrospective cohort study used a prospectively acquired database and chest pain patients admitted to the emergency department with suspected NSTE-ACS were enrolled. Data recorded on arrival at the ED were used. The serum sample of high-sensitivity cardiac Troponin I other than conventional cardiac Troponin I used in the HEART risk score was tested. The modified HEART risk score was calculated. The end point was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events （MACE） defined as a composite of acute myocardial infarction （AMI）, percu-taneous intervention （PCI）, coronary artery bypass graft （CABG）, or all-cause death, within three months after initial presentation.Results A total of 1,300 patients were enrolled. A total of 606 patients （46.6%） had a MACE within three months： 205 patients （15.8%） were diag-nosed with AMI, 465 patients （35.8%） underwent PCI, and 119 patients （9.2%） underwent CABG. There were 10 （0.8%） deaths. A progres-sive, significant pattern of increasing event rate was observed as the score increased （P ＆lt; 0.001 byχ2 for trend）. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.84. All patients were classified into three groups： low risk （score 0-2）, intermediate risk （score 3-4）, and high risk （score 5-10）. Event rates were 1.1%, 18.5%, and 67.0%, respectively （P ＆lt; 0.001）.ConclusionsThe modified HEART risk score was validated in chest pain patients with suspected NSTE-ACS and may complement MACE risk assessment and patients triage in the ED. A prospective study of the score is warranted.
