Objective:Near vision loss(NVL)is one of the leading causes of visual impairment worldwide,exerting a profound impact on individual quality of life and socio-economic development.This study aims to analyze the burden ...Objective:Near vision loss(NVL)is one of the leading causes of visual impairment worldwide,exerting a profound impact on individual quality of life and socio-economic development.This study aims to analyze the burden of NVL in China by sex and age groups from 1990 to 2021 and to project trends over the next 15 years.Methods:Using data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,we conducted descriptive analyses of NVL prevalence in China,calculated age-standardized prevalence rates(ASPR)and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates(ASDR)to compare burden differences between sexes and age groups,and applied an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to predict NVL trends for the next 15 years.The model selection was based on best-fit criteria to ensure reliable projections.Results:From 1990 to 2021,China’s ASPR of NVL rose from 10096.24/100000 to 15624.54/100000,and ASDR increased from 101.75/100000 to 158.75/100000.In 2021,ASPR(16551.70/100000)and ASDR(167.69/100000)were higher among females than males(14686.21/100000 and 149.76/100000,respectively).China ranked highest globally in both NVL cases and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),with female burden significantly exceeding male burden.Projections indicated this trend and sex gap will persist until 2036.Compared with 1990,the prevalence cases and DALYs increased by 239.20%and 238.82%,respectively in 2021,with the highest burden among females and the 55−59 age group.The ARIMA model predicted continued increases in prevalence and DALYs by 2036,with females maintaining a higher burden than males.Conclusion:This study reveals a marked increase in the NVL burden in China and predicts continued growth in the coming years.Public health policies should prioritize NVL prevention and control,with special attention to women and middle-aged populations to mitigate long-term societal and health impacts.展开更多
Forest fire accidents caused by distribution line faults occur frequently,resulting in heavy impacts on people’s safety and social and economic development.Currently,there are few risk assessments for forest fires in...Forest fire accidents caused by distribution line faults occur frequently,resulting in heavy impacts on people’s safety and social and economic development.Currently,there are few risk assessments for forest fires induced by over-head distribution lines,and existing assessment methods may have difficulties in data acquisition.On this basis,a novel as-sessment framework based on an analytic hierarchy process,a Bayesian network and a Fussel-Vesely importance metric is proposed in this paper.The framework combines field research and historical operation and maintenance data to assess the regional-scale risk of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines to derive the probability of forest fires and to identify high-risk lines and key hazard events in the assessment region.Finally,taking the southern Anhui region as an ex-ample,the annual fire probability of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines in the southern Anhui region is 5.88%,and rectification measures are proposed.This study provides management with a complete assessment framework that optimizes the difficulty of data collection and allows for additional targeted corrective measures to be proposed for the entire region and route on the basis of the assessment results.展开更多
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2023JJ30817)Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation-Hengyang City Joint Fund Project(2025JJ70129)+1 种基金Changsha Natural Science Foundation(kq2403057)China。
文摘Objective:Near vision loss(NVL)is one of the leading causes of visual impairment worldwide,exerting a profound impact on individual quality of life and socio-economic development.This study aims to analyze the burden of NVL in China by sex and age groups from 1990 to 2021 and to project trends over the next 15 years.Methods:Using data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,we conducted descriptive analyses of NVL prevalence in China,calculated age-standardized prevalence rates(ASPR)and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates(ASDR)to compare burden differences between sexes and age groups,and applied an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to predict NVL trends for the next 15 years.The model selection was based on best-fit criteria to ensure reliable projections.Results:From 1990 to 2021,China’s ASPR of NVL rose from 10096.24/100000 to 15624.54/100000,and ASDR increased from 101.75/100000 to 158.75/100000.In 2021,ASPR(16551.70/100000)and ASDR(167.69/100000)were higher among females than males(14686.21/100000 and 149.76/100000,respectively).China ranked highest globally in both NVL cases and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),with female burden significantly exceeding male burden.Projections indicated this trend and sex gap will persist until 2036.Compared with 1990,the prevalence cases and DALYs increased by 239.20%and 238.82%,respectively in 2021,with the highest burden among females and the 55−59 age group.The ARIMA model predicted continued increases in prevalence and DALYs by 2036,with females maintaining a higher burden than males.Conclusion:This study reveals a marked increase in the NVL burden in China and predicts continued growth in the coming years.Public health policies should prioritize NVL prevention and control,with special attention to women and middle-aged populations to mitigate long-term societal and health impacts.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3003101)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(WK2320000050)the Science and Technology Program of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.(521205220001).
文摘Forest fire accidents caused by distribution line faults occur frequently,resulting in heavy impacts on people’s safety and social and economic development.Currently,there are few risk assessments for forest fires induced by over-head distribution lines,and existing assessment methods may have difficulties in data acquisition.On this basis,a novel as-sessment framework based on an analytic hierarchy process,a Bayesian network and a Fussel-Vesely importance metric is proposed in this paper.The framework combines field research and historical operation and maintenance data to assess the regional-scale risk of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines to derive the probability of forest fires and to identify high-risk lines and key hazard events in the assessment region.Finally,taking the southern Anhui region as an ex-ample,the annual fire probability of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines in the southern Anhui region is 5.88%,and rectification measures are proposed.This study provides management with a complete assessment framework that optimizes the difficulty of data collection and allows for additional targeted corrective measures to be proposed for the entire region and route on the basis of the assessment results.
