Accident causation analysis is of great importance for accident prevention.In order to improve the aviation safety,a new analysis method of aviation accident causation based on complex network theory is proposed in th...Accident causation analysis is of great importance for accident prevention.In order to improve the aviation safety,a new analysis method of aviation accident causation based on complex network theory is proposed in this paper.Through selecting 257 accident investigation reports,45 causative factors and nine accident types are obtained by the three-level coding process of the grounded theory,and the interaction of these factors is analyzed based on the“2-4”model.Accordingly,the aviation accident causation network is constructed based on complex network theory which has scale-free characteristics and small-world properties,the characteristics of causative factors are analyzed by the topology of the network,and the key causative factors of the accidents are identified by the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.The comparison results show that the method proposed in this paper has the advantages of independent of expert experience,quantitative analysis of accident causative factors and statistical analysis of a lot of accident data,and it has better applicability and advancement.展开更多
A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system（HFACS） and the accident causation ＂2-4＂ model（2...A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system（HFACS） and the accident causation ＂2-4＂ model（24 Model）, as well as to provide a reference for safety researchers and accident investigators to select an appropriate accident analysis method. The two models are compared in terms of their theoretical foundations, cause classifications, accident analysis processes, application ranges, and accident prevention strategies. A coal and gas outburst accident is then analyzed using both models, and the application results are compared. This study shows that both the 24 Model and HFACS have strong theoretical foundations, and they can each be applied in various domains. In addition, the cause classification in HFACS is more practical, and its accident analysis process is more convenient. On the other hand, the 24 Model includes external factors, which makes the cause analysis more systematic and comprehensive. Moreover, the 24 Model puts forward more corresponding measures to prevent accidents.展开更多
A 1999 autopsy study of young adults in the US betweenthe ages of 17 and 34 years of who died from accidents,suicides, and homicides confirmed that coronary artery dis-ease （CAD） is ubiquitous in this age group. The...A 1999 autopsy study of young adults in the US betweenthe ages of 17 and 34 years of who died from accidents,suicides, and homicides confirmed that coronary artery dis-ease （CAD） is ubiquitous in this age group. The diseaseprocess at this stage is too early to cause coronary events butheralds their onset in the decades to follow.展开更多
Understanding the relationship between stand-level tree diversity and productivity has the potential to inform the science and management of forests.History shows that plant diversity-productivity relationships are ch...Understanding the relationship between stand-level tree diversity and productivity has the potential to inform the science and management of forests.History shows that plant diversity-productivity relationships are challenging to interpret—and this remains true for the study of forests using non-experimental field data.Here we highlight pitfalls regarding the analyses and interpretation of such studies.We examine three themes:1)the nature and measurement of ecological productivity and related values;2)the role of stand history and disturbance in explaining forest characteristics;and 3)the interpretation of any relationship.We show that volume production and true productivity are distinct,and neither is a demonstrated proxy for economic values.Many stand characteristics,including diversity,volume growth and productivity,vary intrinsically with succession and stand history.We should be characterising these relationships rather than ignoring or eliminating them.Failure to do so may lead to misleading conclusions.To illustrate,we examine the study which prompted our concerns—Liang et al.(Science 354:aaf8957,2016)—which developed a sophisticated global analysis to infer a worldwide positive effect of biodiversity(tree species richness)on“forest productivity”(stand level wood volume production).Existing data should be able to address many of our concerns.Critical evaluations will improve understanding.展开更多
基金supported by the Civil Aviation Joint Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U1533112)。
文摘Accident causation analysis is of great importance for accident prevention.In order to improve the aviation safety,a new analysis method of aviation accident causation based on complex network theory is proposed in this paper.Through selecting 257 accident investigation reports,45 causative factors and nine accident types are obtained by the three-level coding process of the grounded theory,and the interaction of these factors is analyzed based on the“2-4”model.Accordingly,the aviation accident causation network is constructed based on complex network theory which has scale-free characteristics and small-world properties,the characteristics of causative factors are analyzed by the topology of the network,and the key causative factors of the accidents are identified by the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.The comparison results show that the method proposed in this paper has the advantages of independent of expert experience,quantitative analysis of accident causative factors and statistical analysis of a lot of accident data,and it has better applicability and advancement.
基金support from the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51534008)
文摘A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system（HFACS） and the accident causation ＂2-4＂ model（24 Model）, as well as to provide a reference for safety researchers and accident investigators to select an appropriate accident analysis method. The two models are compared in terms of their theoretical foundations, cause classifications, accident analysis processes, application ranges, and accident prevention strategies. A coal and gas outburst accident is then analyzed using both models, and the application results are compared. This study shows that both the 24 Model and HFACS have strong theoretical foundations, and they can each be applied in various domains. In addition, the cause classification in HFACS is more practical, and its accident analysis process is more convenient. On the other hand, the 24 Model includes external factors, which makes the cause analysis more systematic and comprehensive. Moreover, the 24 Model puts forward more corresponding measures to prevent accidents.
文摘A 1999 autopsy study of young adults in the US betweenthe ages of 17 and 34 years of who died from accidents,suicides, and homicides confirmed that coronary artery dis-ease （CAD） is ubiquitous in this age group. The diseaseprocess at this stage is too early to cause coronary events butheralds their onset in the decades to follow.
基金DS’s time was paid by the Norwegian University of Life Sciences.FB’s time was paid by Wageningen University & Research.
文摘Understanding the relationship between stand-level tree diversity and productivity has the potential to inform the science and management of forests.History shows that plant diversity-productivity relationships are challenging to interpret—and this remains true for the study of forests using non-experimental field data.Here we highlight pitfalls regarding the analyses and interpretation of such studies.We examine three themes:1)the nature and measurement of ecological productivity and related values;2)the role of stand history and disturbance in explaining forest characteristics;and 3)the interpretation of any relationship.We show that volume production and true productivity are distinct,and neither is a demonstrated proxy for economic values.Many stand characteristics,including diversity,volume growth and productivity,vary intrinsically with succession and stand history.We should be characterising these relationships rather than ignoring or eliminating them.Failure to do so may lead to misleading conclusions.To illustrate,we examine the study which prompted our concerns—Liang et al.(Science 354:aaf8957,2016)—which developed a sophisticated global analysis to infer a worldwide positive effect of biodiversity(tree species richness)on“forest productivity”(stand level wood volume production).Existing data should be able to address many of our concerns.Critical evaluations will improve understanding.
