Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to i...Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.展开更多
Ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) is important for its special role in ensuring national security and maintaining strategic balance. Research on modeling and simulation of the BMDS beforehand is essential as dev...Ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) is important for its special role in ensuring national security and maintaining strategic balance. Research on modeling and simulation of the BMDS beforehand is essential as developing a real one requires lots of manpower and resources. BMDS is a typical complex system for its nonlinear, adaptive and uncertainty characteristics. The agent-based modeling method is well suited for the complex system whose overall behaviors are determined by interactions among individual elements. A multi-agent decision support system (DSS), which includes missile agent, radar agent and command center agent, is established based on the studies of structure and function of BMDS. Considering the constraints brought by radar, intercept missile, offensive missile and commander, the objective function of DSS is established. In order to dynamically generate the optimal interception plan, the variable neighborhood negative selection particle swarm optimization (VNNSPSO) algorithm is proposed to support the decision making of DSS. The proposed algorithm is compared with the standard PSO, constriction factor PSO (CFPSO), inertia weight linear decrease PSO (LDPSO), variable neighborhood PSO (VNPSO) algorithm from the aspects of convergence rate, iteration number, average fitness value and standard deviation. The simulation results verify the efficiency of the proposed algorithm. The multi-agent DSS is developed through the Repast simulation platform and the constructed DSS can generate intercept plans automatically and support three-dimensional dynamic display of missile defense process.展开更多
Modeling influencing factors of battle damage is one of essential works in implementing military industrial logistics simulation to explore battle damage laws knowledge.However,one of key challenges in designing the s...Modeling influencing factors of battle damage is one of essential works in implementing military industrial logistics simulation to explore battle damage laws knowledge.However,one of key challenges in designing the simulation system could be how to reasonably determine simulation model input and build a bridge to link battle damage model and battle damage laws knowledge.In this paper,we propose a novel knowledge-oriented modeling method for influencing factors of battle damage in military industrial logistics,integrating conceptual analysis,conceptual modeling,quantitative modeling and simulation implementation.We conceptualize influencing factors of battle damage by using the principle of hierarchical decomposition,thus classifying the related battle damage knowledge logically.Then,we construct the conceptual model of influencing factors of battle damage by using Entity-Relations hip approach,thus describing their interactions reasonably.Subsequently,we extract the important influencing factors by using social network analysis,thus evaluating their importance quantitatively and further clarifying the elements of simulation.Finally,we develop an agent-based military industry logistics simulation system by taking the modeling results on influencing factors of battle damage as simulation model input,and obtain simulation model output,i.e.,new battle damage laws knowledge,thus verifying feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.The results show that this method can be used to support human decision-making and action.展开更多
The majority of allied casualties from recent conflicts were caused by blast wave and fragments perforation damage from Improvised Explosive Devices. Survivability to this type of threat is a critical factor to consid...The majority of allied casualties from recent conflicts were caused by blast wave and fragments perforation damage from Improvised Explosive Devices. Survivability to this type of threat is a critical factor to consider for land platform design. This paper proposes an original approach to platform survivability assessment using a combination of Agent-Based(AB) simulation and Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) to predict the consequences of IED fragment impacts on the platform operational status. As a demonstration, this approach is applied to the comparison of different platform architectures to gain insight into the optimisation of the platform component topology.展开更多
A system of systems(SoS)composes a set of independent constituent systems(CSs),where the degree of authority to control the independence of CSs varies,depending on different SoS types.Key researchers describe four SoS...A system of systems(SoS)composes a set of independent constituent systems(CSs),where the degree of authority to control the independence of CSs varies,depending on different SoS types.Key researchers describe four SoS types with descending levels of central authority:directed,acknowledged,collaborative and virtual.Although the definitions have been recognized in SoS engineering,what is challenging is the difficulty of translating these definitions into models and simulation environments.Thus,we provide a goal-based method including a mathematical baseline to translate these definitions into more effective agent-based modeling and simulations.First,we construct the theoretical models of CS and SoS.Based on the theoretical models,we analyze the degree of authority influenced by SoS characteristics.Next,we propose a definition of SoS types by quantitatively explaining the degree of authority.Finally,we recognize the differences between acknowledged SoS and collaborative SoS using a migrating waterfowl flock by an agentbased model(ABM)simulation.This paper contributes to the SoS body of knowledge by increasing our understanding of the degree of authority in an SoS,so we may identify suitable SoS types to achieve SoS goals by modeling and simulation.展开更多
基金supported by the Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science Foundation(2022ECK004)Shanghai Soft Science Research Project(23692123400)。
文摘Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.
文摘Ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) is important for its special role in ensuring national security and maintaining strategic balance. Research on modeling and simulation of the BMDS beforehand is essential as developing a real one requires lots of manpower and resources. BMDS is a typical complex system for its nonlinear, adaptive and uncertainty characteristics. The agent-based modeling method is well suited for the complex system whose overall behaviors are determined by interactions among individual elements. A multi-agent decision support system (DSS), which includes missile agent, radar agent and command center agent, is established based on the studies of structure and function of BMDS. Considering the constraints brought by radar, intercept missile, offensive missile and commander, the objective function of DSS is established. In order to dynamically generate the optimal interception plan, the variable neighborhood negative selection particle swarm optimization (VNNSPSO) algorithm is proposed to support the decision making of DSS. The proposed algorithm is compared with the standard PSO, constriction factor PSO (CFPSO), inertia weight linear decrease PSO (LDPSO), variable neighborhood PSO (VNPSO) algorithm from the aspects of convergence rate, iteration number, average fitness value and standard deviation. The simulation results verify the efficiency of the proposed algorithm. The multi-agent DSS is developed through the Repast simulation platform and the constructed DSS can generate intercept plans automatically and support three-dimensional dynamic display of missile defense process.
基金This research was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant number 61473311,70901075)Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality(grant number 9142017)military projects funded by the Chinese Army.
文摘Modeling influencing factors of battle damage is one of essential works in implementing military industrial logistics simulation to explore battle damage laws knowledge.However,one of key challenges in designing the simulation system could be how to reasonably determine simulation model input and build a bridge to link battle damage model and battle damage laws knowledge.In this paper,we propose a novel knowledge-oriented modeling method for influencing factors of battle damage in military industrial logistics,integrating conceptual analysis,conceptual modeling,quantitative modeling and simulation implementation.We conceptualize influencing factors of battle damage by using the principle of hierarchical decomposition,thus classifying the related battle damage knowledge logically.Then,we construct the conceptual model of influencing factors of battle damage by using Entity-Relations hip approach,thus describing their interactions reasonably.Subsequently,we extract the important influencing factors by using social network analysis,thus evaluating their importance quantitatively and further clarifying the elements of simulation.Finally,we develop an agent-based military industry logistics simulation system by taking the modeling results on influencing factors of battle damage as simulation model input,and obtain simulation model output,i.e.,new battle damage laws knowledge,thus verifying feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.The results show that this method can be used to support human decision-making and action.
文摘The majority of allied casualties from recent conflicts were caused by blast wave and fragments perforation damage from Improvised Explosive Devices. Survivability to this type of threat is a critical factor to consider for land platform design. This paper proposes an original approach to platform survivability assessment using a combination of Agent-Based(AB) simulation and Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) to predict the consequences of IED fragment impacts on the platform operational status. As a demonstration, this approach is applied to the comparison of different platform architectures to gain insight into the optimisation of the platform component topology.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(61873236)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province(LZ21F020003,LY18F030001)the Civil Aerospace Pre-research Project(D020101).
文摘A system of systems(SoS)composes a set of independent constituent systems(CSs),where the degree of authority to control the independence of CSs varies,depending on different SoS types.Key researchers describe four SoS types with descending levels of central authority:directed,acknowledged,collaborative and virtual.Although the definitions have been recognized in SoS engineering,what is challenging is the difficulty of translating these definitions into models and simulation environments.Thus,we provide a goal-based method including a mathematical baseline to translate these definitions into more effective agent-based modeling and simulations.First,we construct the theoretical models of CS and SoS.Based on the theoretical models,we analyze the degree of authority influenced by SoS characteristics.Next,we propose a definition of SoS types by quantitatively explaining the degree of authority.Finally,we recognize the differences between acknowledged SoS and collaborative SoS using a migrating waterfowl flock by an agentbased model(ABM)simulation.This paper contributes to the SoS body of knowledge by increasing our understanding of the degree of authority in an SoS,so we may identify suitable SoS types to achieve SoS goals by modeling and simulation.
