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Comparative analysis of machine learning and statistical models for cotton yield prediction in major growing districts of Karnataka,India
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作者 THIMMEGOWDA M.N. MANJUNATHA M.H. +4 位作者 LINGARAJ H. SOUMYA D.V. JAYARAMAIAH R. SATHISHA G.S. NAGESHA L. 《Journal of Cotton Research》 2025年第1期40-60,共21页
Background Cotton is one of the most important commercial crops after food crops,especially in countries like India,where it’s grown extensively under rainfed conditions.Because of its usage in multiple industries,su... Background Cotton is one of the most important commercial crops after food crops,especially in countries like India,where it’s grown extensively under rainfed conditions.Because of its usage in multiple industries,such as textile,medicine,and automobile industries,it has greater commercial importance.The crop’s performance is greatly influenced by prevailing weather dynamics.As climate changes,assessing how weather changes affect crop performance is essential.Among various techniques that are available,crop models are the most effective and widely used tools for predicting yields.Results This study compares statistical and machine learning models to assess their ability to predict cotton yield across major producing districts of Karnataka,India,utilizing a long-term dataset spanning from 1990 to 2023 that includes yield and weather factors.The artificial neural networks(ANNs)performed superiorly with acceptable yield deviations ranging within±10%during both vegetative stage(F1)and mid stage(F2)for cotton.The model evaluation metrics such as root mean square error(RMSE),normalized root mean square error(nRMSE),and modelling efficiency(EF)were also within the acceptance limits in most districts.Furthermore,the tested ANN model was used to assess the importance of the dominant weather factors influencing crop yield in each district.Specifically,the use of morning relative humidity as an individual parameter and its interaction with maximum and minimum tempera-ture had a major influence on cotton yield in most of the yield predicted districts.These differences highlighted the differential interactions of weather factors in each district for cotton yield formation,highlighting individual response of each weather factor under different soils and management conditions over the major cotton growing districts of Karnataka.Conclusions Compared with statistical models,machine learning models such as ANNs proved higher efficiency in forecasting the cotton yield due to their ability to consider the interactive effects of weather factors on yield forma-tion at different growth stages.This highlights the best suitability of ANNs for yield forecasting in rainfed conditions and for the study on relative impacts of weather factors on yield.Thus,the study aims to provide valuable insights to support stakeholders in planning effective crop management strategies and formulating relevant policies. 展开更多
关键词 COTTON Machine learning models statistical models Yield forecast Artificial neural network Weather variables
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Brittleness evaluation of gas-bearing coal based on statistical damage constitution model and energy evolution mechanism
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作者 XUE Yi WANG Lin-chao +5 位作者 LIU Yong RANJITH P G CAO Zheng-zheng SHI Xu-yang GAO Feng KONG Hai-ling 《Journal of Central South University》 2025年第2期566-581,共16页
Accurate assessment of coal brittleness is crucial in the design of coal seam drilling and underground coal mining operations.This study proposes a method for evaluating the brittleness of gas-bearing coal based on a ... Accurate assessment of coal brittleness is crucial in the design of coal seam drilling and underground coal mining operations.This study proposes a method for evaluating the brittleness of gas-bearing coal based on a statistical damage constitutive model and energy evolution mechanisms.Initially,integrating the principle of effective stress and the Hoek-Brown criterion,a statistical damage constitutive model for gas-bearing coal is established and validated through triaxial compression tests under different gas pressures to verify its accuracy and applicability.Subsequently,employing energy evolution mechanism,two energy characteristic parameters(elastic energy proportion and dissipated energy proportion)are analyzed.Based on the damage stress thresholds,the damage evolution characteristics of gas bearing coal were explored.Finally,by integrating energy characteristic parameters with damage parameters,a novel brittleness index is proposed.The results demonstrate that the theoretical curves derived from the statistical damage constitutive model closely align with the test curves,accurately reflecting the stress−strain characteristics of gas-bearing coal and revealing the stress drop and softening characteristics of coal in the post-peak stage.The shape parameter and scale parameter represent the brittleness and macroscopic strength of the coal,respectively.As gas pressure increases from 1 to 5 MPa,the shape parameter and the scale parameter decrease by 22.18%and 60.45%,respectively,indicating a reduction in both brittleness and strength of the coal.Parameters such as maximum damage rate and peak elastic energy storage limit positively correlate with coal brittleness.The brittleness index effectively captures the brittleness characteristics and reveals a decrease in brittleness and an increase in sensitivity to plastic deformation under higher gas pressure conditions. 展开更多
关键词 gas pressure statistical damage constitutive model energy evolution mechanism brittleness evaluation gas bearing coal
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A Fuzzy Adaptive Algorithm Based on“Current”Statistical Model for Maneuvering Target Tracking 被引量:1
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作者 王向华 覃征 +1 位作者 杨慧杰 杨新宇 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 SCIE EI CAS 2010年第3期194-199,共6页
The basic"current"statistical model and adaptive Kalman filter algorithm can not track a weakly maneuvering target precisely,though it has good estimate accuracy for strongly maneuvering target.In order to s... The basic"current"statistical model and adaptive Kalman filter algorithm can not track a weakly maneuvering target precisely,though it has good estimate accuracy for strongly maneuvering target.In order to solve this problem,a novel nonlinear fuzzy membership function was presented to adjust the upper and lower limit of target acceleration adaptively,and then the validity of the new algorithm for feeblish maneuvering target was proved in theory.At last,the computer simulation experiments indicated that the new algorithm has a great advantage over the basic"current"statistical model and adaptive algorithm. 展开更多
关键词 control theory maneuvering target tracking "current"statistical model fuzzy control simulation analyses
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Joint multivariate statistical model and its applications to synthetic earthquake predic-tion 被引量:14
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作者 韩天锡 蒋淳 +2 位作者 魏雪丽 韩梅 冯德益 《地震学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2004年第5期523-528,625,共6页
针对目前地震综合预报中的一些问题,利用近30年来迅速发展的多元统计分析中主成分分析、判别分析组成多元统计组合模型,在众多的地震预报指标(预报因子)中采用信息最大化方法,选择对中期预测信息累积贡献率大于90%地震预报指标,分... 针对目前地震综合预报中的一些问题,利用近30年来迅速发展的多元统计分析中主成分分析、判别分析组成多元统计组合模型,在众多的地震预报指标(预报因子)中采用信息最大化方法,选择对中期预测信息累积贡献率大于90%地震预报指标,分别进行相关分析、预测、检验,最终应用马氏距离判别作外推综合预报;并以华北地区(30°~42°N,108°125°E)为例进行模型的应用检验,初步研究已取得了较好的效果. 展开更多
关键词 多元统计组合模型 主成分分析 判别分析 地震综合预报
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Evaluation of mobility impact on urban work zones using statistical models 被引量:1
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作者 LIU Pei ZHANG Jian +3 位作者 QU Jun-rong LU Jia-jian CHENG Yang TAN Hua-chun 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2017年第6期1513-1521,共9页
This work correlated the detailed work zone location and time data from the Wis LCS system with the five-min inductive loop detector data. One-sample percentile value test and two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) test w... This work correlated the detailed work zone location and time data from the Wis LCS system with the five-min inductive loop detector data. One-sample percentile value test and two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) test were applied to compare the speed and flow characteristics between work zone and non-work zone conditions. Furthermore, we analyzed the mobility characteristics of freeway work zones within the urban area of Milwaukee, WI, USA. More than 50% of investigated work zones have experienced speed reduction and 15%-30% is necessary reduced volumes. Speed reduction was more significant within and at the downstream of work zones than at the upstream. 展开更多
关键词 ITS data MOBILITY IMPACT WORK ZONE statistical model
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Photon statistical properties of the cavity field in the two-atom Jaynes-Cummings model 被引量:2
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作者 LIANGJun WANGKai-ge 《原子与分子物理学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2001年第3期309-312,共4页
The model that two two level atoms interact with a singel mode cavity is studied. The exact solution of the time evolution operator for the two atom Jaynes Cummings model is presented by the bare states approach. Furt... The model that two two level atoms interact with a singel mode cavity is studied. The exact solution of the time evolution operator for the two atom Jaynes Cummings model is presented by the bare states approach. Furthermore, we investigate the dynamical properties of the photon statistics of the cavity field, and obtain a number of novel features. 展开更多
关键词 双原子J-C模型 光子统计 空穴场
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Hierarchical interacting multiple model algorithm based on improved current model 被引量:4
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作者 Xianghua Wang Xinyu Yang +1 位作者 Zheng Qin Huijie Yang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2010年第6期961-967,共7页
Interacting multiple models is the hotspot in the research of maneuvering target models at present. A hierarchical idea is introduced into IMM algorithm. The method is that the whole models are organized as two levels... Interacting multiple models is the hotspot in the research of maneuvering target models at present. A hierarchical idea is introduced into IMM algorithm. The method is that the whole models are organized as two levels to co-work, and each cell model is an improved "current" statistical model. In the improved model, a kind of nonlinear fuzzy membership function is presented to get over the limitation of original model, which can not track weak maneuvering target precisely. At last, simulation experiments prove the efficient of the novel algorithm compared to interacting multiple model and hierarchical interacting multiple model based original "current" statistical model in tracking precision. 展开更多
关键词 target tracking "current statistical model multiple model hierarchical.
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Multiple linear system techniques for 3D finite element method modeling of direct current resistivity 被引量:3
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作者 李长伟 熊彬 +1 位作者 强建科 吕玉增 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第2期424-432,共9页
The strategies that minimize the overall solution time of multiple linear systems in 3D finite element method (FEM) modeling of direct current (DC) resistivity were discussed. A global stiff matrix is assembled and st... The strategies that minimize the overall solution time of multiple linear systems in 3D finite element method (FEM) modeling of direct current (DC) resistivity were discussed. A global stiff matrix is assembled and stored in two parts separately. One part is associated with the volume integral and the other is associated with the subsurface boundary integral. The equivalent multiple linear systems with closer right-hand sides than the original systems were constructed. A recycling Krylov subspace technique was employed to solve the multiple linear systems. The solution of the seed system was used as an initial guess for the subsequent systems. The results of two numerical experiments show that the improved algorithm reduces the iterations and CPU time by almost 50%, compared with the classical preconditioned conjugate gradient method. 展开更多
关键词 finite element method modeling direct current resistivity multiple linear systems preconditioned conjugate gradient recycling Krylov subspace
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GFTSM-based Model Predictive Torque Control for PMSM Drive System With Single Phase Current Sensor 被引量:2
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作者 Qingfang Teng Yuxing Jin +2 位作者 Shuyuan Li Jianguo Zhu Youguang Guo 《自动化学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2017年第9期1644-1655,共12页
A global fast terminal sliding mode(GFTSM)-based model predictive torque control(MPTC)strategy is developed for permanent magnet synchronous motor(PMSM)drive system with only one phase current sensor.Generally two pha... A global fast terminal sliding mode(GFTSM)-based model predictive torque control(MPTC)strategy is developed for permanent magnet synchronous motor(PMSM)drive system with only one phase current sensor.Generally two phase-current sensors are indispensable for MPTC.In response to only one phase current sensor available and the change of stator resistance,a novel adaptive observer for estimating the remaining two phase currents and time-varying stator resistance is proposed to perform MPTC.Moreover,in view of the variation of system parameters and external disturbance,a new GFTSM-based speed regulator is synthesized to enhance the drive system robustness.In this paper,the GFTSM,based on sliding mode theory,employs the fast terminal sliding mode in both the reaching stage and the sliding stage.The resultant GFTSM-based MPTC PMSM drive system with single phase current sensor has excellent dynamical performance which is very close to the GFTSM-based MPTC PMSM drive system with two-phase current sensors.On the other hand,compared with proportional-integral(PI)-based and sliding mode(SM)-based MPTC PMSM drive systems,it possesses better dynamical response and stronger robustness as well as smaller total harmonic distortion(THD)index of three-phase stator currents in the presence of variation of load torque.The simulation results validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed scheme. 展开更多
关键词 Adaptive observer current sensorless global fast terminal sliding mode(GFTSM) model predictive torque control(MPTC) permanent magnet synchronous motor(PMSM)
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A thermo-mechanical damage constitutive model for deep rock considering brittleness-ductility transition characteristics 被引量:2
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作者 FENG Chen-chen WANG Zhi-liang +2 位作者 WANG Jian-guo LU Zhi-tang LI Song-yu 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第7期2379-2392,共14页
This paper developed a statistical damage constitutive model for deep rock by considering the effects of external load and thermal treatment temperature based on the distortion energy.The model parameters were determi... This paper developed a statistical damage constitutive model for deep rock by considering the effects of external load and thermal treatment temperature based on the distortion energy.The model parameters were determined through the extremum features of stress−strain curve.Subsequently,the model predictions were compared with experimental results of marble samples.It is found that when the treatment temperature rises,the coupling damage evolution curve shows an S-shape and the slope of ascending branch gradually decreases during the coupling damage evolution process.At a constant temperature,confining pressure can suppress the expansion of micro-fractures.As the confining pressure increases the rock exhibits ductility characteristics,and the shape of coupling damage curve changes from an S-shape into a quasi-parabolic shape.This model can well characterize the influence of high temperature on the mechanical properties of deep rock and its brittleness-ductility transition characteristics under confining pressure.Also,it is suitable for sandstone and granite,especially in predicting the pre-peak stage and peak stress of stress−strain curve under the coupling action of confining pressure and high temperature.The relevant results can provide a reference for further research on the constitutive relationship of rock-like materials and their engineering applications. 展开更多
关键词 deep rock crack initiation threshold thermo-mechanical coupling statistical damage model distortion energy theory
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Damage-Monitoring Forward Equivalent-model Construction of Rosette Eddy Current Sensors 被引量:2
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作者 DING Hua HE Yuting JIAO Shenbo DU Jingqiang 《中国电机工程学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2013年第9期I0022-I0022,共1页
结构损伤监测对于保证结构安全是极其重要的。针对金属螺栓连接结构中螺栓孔位置处的裂纹损伤定量监测需求,在Goldfine等人的基础之上,该文提出一种花萼状涡流传感器,构建了传感器损伤监测正向等效模型并通过搭建实验装置验证损伤监测... 结构损伤监测对于保证结构安全是极其重要的。针对金属螺栓连接结构中螺栓孔位置处的裂纹损伤定量监测需求,在Goldfine等人的基础之上,该文提出一种花萼状涡流传感器,构建了传感器损伤监测正向等效模型并通过搭建实验装置验证损伤监测正向等效模型准确性并进行误差分析。相对于传统的多层导电结构谐波涡流场的积分/级数解析模型,构建的损伤监测正向等效模型考虑了在高频激励下导线电流密度分布的集肤效应,并可用于互感式涡流传感器建模。实验结果表明:对测量结果经空气标定后,传感器贴于2A12-T4标准试件表面时的模型计算结果和实验结果较为吻合,第1、2和3感应通道的幅值比量模型计算结果误差随频率变化均在10%以内,第4感应通道的幅值比量模型计算结果误差随频率变化在15%以内。 展开更多
关键词 电涡流传感器 模型建设 损伤监测 等效 结构健康监测 使能技术 平面线圈 电导率测量
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Modeling and Analysis of the Effect of Probe Radial Offset on Eddy Current Nondestructive Testing and Evaluation of Metallic Tubes
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作者 FAN Mengbao YIN Yadan CAO Binghua 《中国电机工程学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2012年第30期I0019-I0019,共1页
Eddy current testing is one of the most effective methods for evaluation of metallic tubes.In practice,however,the signal is often contaminated by the vibration of the probe,namely radial offset.This work deals with t... Eddy current testing is one of the most effective methods for evaluation of metallic tubes.In practice,however,the signal is often contaminated by the vibration of the probe,namely radial offset.This work deals with the analytical solution to a T-R probe with radial offset,as shown in Fig.1. 展开更多
关键词 eddy current testing metallic tubes radial offset modelING SIMULATION
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室内电磁波传播衰减统计模型用于矿井的适用性研究 被引量:1
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作者 孙继平 彭铭 《工矿自动化》 北大核心 2025年第2期1-8,共8页
5G,5.5G,WiFi6,WiFi7,UWB,ZigBee等矿井移动通信、人员和车辆定位、无线视频和无线传感等系统的设计、规划和优化,需进行矿井电磁波传播分析。电磁波传播衰减统计模型是预测电磁波传播衰减的有效方法。分析研究了室内电磁波传播衰减统... 5G,5.5G,WiFi6,WiFi7,UWB,ZigBee等矿井移动通信、人员和车辆定位、无线视频和无线传感等系统的设计、规划和优化,需进行矿井电磁波传播分析。电磁波传播衰减统计模型是预测电磁波传播衰减的有效方法。分析研究了室内电磁波传播衰减统计模型在矿井的适用性:①矿井电磁波传播为有限空间特殊环境中远距离传播,与地面室内长方体简单环境中近距离电磁波传播不同。②矿井巷道四周为较厚的煤岩,对电磁波具有较强的吸收能力,巷道支护材料进一步阻挡了电磁波穿透,一般不考虑电磁波穿墙衰减。室内−室内电磁波传播衰减统计模型中的COST−Multi−Wall模型、Keenan−Motley模型考虑电磁波穿墙衰减,不适用于矿井。③矿井的基站和无线终端均在巷道内,为有限空间内部电磁波传播。室外−室内电磁波传播衰减统计模型适用于基站在室外开放空间、无线终端在室内有限空间的电磁波传播,不适用于矿井。分析研究了室内电磁波传播衰减统计模型对矿井不同场景(矿井辅助运输大巷、掘进巷道、拐弯巷道、分支巷道、综采工作面)中电磁波传播衰减的预测误差:利用室内电磁波传播衰减统计模型中的WINNER II模型、3GPP InH−Office模型、ITU−R P.1238模型、ITU−R M.2412 InH模型预测矿井电磁波传播衰减时,总的误差均值分别为9.3,8.2,9.9,7.7 dB,由于预测误差较大,这些模型不适用于矿井。目前没有专门针对矿井特殊环境建立的矿井电磁波传播衰减统计模型。因此,有必要针对矿井有限空间特殊环境,研究建立矿井电磁波传播衰减统计模型,指导矿井通信基站和定位分站及其天线的设计和布置。 展开更多
关键词 矿井通信 电磁波传播 电磁波衰减 统计模型 基站布置
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初治重症肺结核患者早期危险因素分析及预测模型的构建
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作者 薛玉 郭树彬 +7 位作者 雷轩 张静 李文胜 刘岩 李欢 刘志峰 王伟 文力 《中国防痨杂志》 北大核心 2025年第8期1038-1043,共6页
目的:探索初治重症肺结核患者的流行病学特点,分析发生重症的危险因素,为临床早期识别初治重症肺结核患者并改善预后提供依据。方法:选取2024年1—6月首都医科大学附属北京胸科医院收治的217例初治肺结核患者作为研究对象,根据重症肺结... 目的:探索初治重症肺结核患者的流行病学特点,分析发生重症的危险因素,为临床早期识别初治重症肺结核患者并改善预后提供依据。方法:选取2024年1—6月首都医科大学附属北京胸科医院收治的217例初治肺结核患者作为研究对象,根据重症肺结核诊断标准分为初治重症组(107例)和初治非重症组(110例)。收集研究对象一般人口学信息、基础疾病、实验室检查结果、细菌学检测结果等资料。比较两组间各项指标的差异,采用多因素logistic回归模型分析初次诊断尚未开始治疗即发生重症肺结核的危险因素,并建立风险预测模型,绘制受试者工作特征(receiver operator characteristic,ROC)曲线,分析此模型对初治重症肺结核患者的预测价值。结果:多因素logistic回归分析显示,心率、白蛋白、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值、血钠、呼吸窘迫为初治肺结核患者发生重症的独立影响因素。心率增快(OR=1.205,95%CI:1.010~1.436)、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值增加(OR=2.247,95%CI:1.133~4.455)和发生呼吸窘迫(OR=26.899,95%CI:1.713~289.780),肺结核患者出现重症的风险增加;白蛋白水平升高(OR=0.487,95%CI:0.270~0.876)和血钠水平升高(OR=0.489,95%CI:0.257~0.928),肺结核患者出现重症的风险降低。ROC曲线分析显示,5种因素联合检测时曲线下面积为0.995,预测初治重症肺结核患者的敏感度和特异度分别为96.2%和98.2%。结论:心率、呼吸窘迫、白蛋白、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值、血钠为初治肺结核患者发生重症的影响因素,且五者联合对初治重症肺结核患者的早期筛查和预防具有良好的预测价值。 展开更多
关键词 危重病 结核 因素分析 统计学 模型 结构
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波流组合作用的大间距群桩基础冲刷试验研究 被引量:1
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作者 杨则英 孙芮 +5 位作者 毕传龙 薛洪野 段蓉蓉 王成赫 曲植霖 高庆水 《土木工程学报》 北大核心 2025年第5期65-78,共14页
为研究波流作用下大桩间距群桩基础的冲刷发展过程和冲刷特性,以青岛近海某群桩基础为原型,开展恒定流和波流工况下多种桩间距的群桩模型水槽试验,得到桩周孔压响应和冲深发展的一般规律。基于三维扫描仪绘制了冲刷坑地形云图,揭示不同... 为研究波流作用下大桩间距群桩基础的冲刷发展过程和冲刷特性,以青岛近海某群桩基础为原型,开展恒定流和波流工况下多种桩间距的群桩模型水槽试验,得到桩周孔压响应和冲深发展的一般规律。基于三维扫描仪绘制了冲刷坑地形云图,揭示不同桩间距(G/D)和弗劳德数(Fr)对冲刷坑形态的影响;并利用Flow3D软件模拟群桩波流冲刷发展过程。最后,建立考虑波流条件、泥沙特性及群桩布置形式等因素的最大冲刷深度预测公式,并利用数值模拟的计算结果进行验证。研究表明:波流作用下群桩周围孔压响应具有显著时空差异;波流最大冲刷深度明显大于恒定流,且随着G/D的增大而减小;G/D较大时各桩周围表现为独立冲刷坑;群桩下游形成两条沙脊,且当G/D越小、Fr越大时沙脊越明显;预测公式在试验数据集和模拟验证集上表现良好,R~2分别为0.996和0.994,准确性和可靠性较好。 展开更多
关键词 桥梁工程 波流冲刷 模型试验 群桩基础 冲刷坑形态
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永磁同步电机双矢量模型预测控制的计算量优化方法研究 被引量:2
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作者 徐奇伟 龙学汉 +3 位作者 苗轶如 王益明 涂郁潇颖 汤梦阳 《电机与控制学报》 北大核心 2025年第5期19-30,共12页
双矢量模型预测控制策略可同时兼顾开关损耗与稳态性能,但是其矢量确定方法与占空比计算过程相对复杂,需要较大的计算量。因此,本文面向电压源型PMSM驱动系统,提出一种可降低计算量的双矢量模型预测电流控制方法。在电机稳态运行时,将... 双矢量模型预测控制策略可同时兼顾开关损耗与稳态性能,但是其矢量确定方法与占空比计算过程相对复杂,需要较大的计算量。因此,本文面向电压源型PMSM驱动系统,提出一种可降低计算量的双矢量模型预测电流控制方法。在电机稳态运行时,将第一最优矢量备选范围缩小至上一控制周期所采用的第一有效矢量及其相邻的两个矢量,再依次代入代价函数确定第一有效矢量,从而将比较次数从六次减小至三次。然后将剩余两个矢量与零矢量作为第二备选矢量,分别以q轴电流无差拍为条件计算占空比,再依次代入代价函数,确定使代价函数最小的矢量组合与占空比。最后,分别搭建仿真模型与实验平台,对所提方法的稳定性、可行性与有效性进行验证。结果表明,所提模型预测控制在平均计算时间仅为15.3μs的前提下,可取得6.57%的电流总谐波畸变率,以及±0.4 N·m的转矩脉动,与其他模型预测控制方法相比,具有最优的稳态性能。 展开更多
关键词 模型预测电流控制 低计算量 永磁同步电机 矢量选择 占空比计算
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西北太平洋热带气旋生成与路径的次季节预报方法及其性能评估
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作者 卢莹 赵海坤 《气象学报》 北大核心 2025年第2期320-333,共14页
基于世界气象组织次季节至季节尺度预测计划数据集中11个动力模式回算预报试验中的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)资料,对西北太平洋海域使用正则逻辑回归方程构建了TC生成与路径的统计预报模型,并评估了模型在次季节尺度上TC生成和路... 基于世界气象组织次季节至季节尺度预测计划数据集中11个动力模式回算预报试验中的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)资料,对西北太平洋海域使用正则逻辑回归方程构建了TC生成与路径的统计预报模型,并评估了模型在次季节尺度上TC生成和路径的预报技巧,分析了动力模式在气候、年际和次季节尺度上对TC活动的预报能力及其对预报技巧的影响。结果表明:(1)西北太平洋 TC 活动本身的气候态预报能力对动力模式预报技巧具有关键影响,若动力模式能很好地再现气候和年际 尺度上的 TC 活动、提高大气季节内振荡对 TC 活动调控作用的预报能力,可较好地改进 TC 生成和路径的次季节预报技巧。 (2)在次季节尺度上,动力模式 TC 路径预报技巧普遍高于 TC 生成,较低的 TC 生成预报技巧反映了动力模式对 TC 强度预报能 力的不足,制约了 TC 路径预报技巧的改进。提高动力模式在气候和年际尺度上对 TC 生成的预报能力有助于路径预报技巧的改进。 展开更多
关键词 热带气旋 次季节预报 动力模式 逻辑回归 统计模型
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基于模糊电流观测的DAB变换器无模型预测控制
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作者 张茂松 赵家新 +3 位作者 舒东胜 谢芳 王秀芹 余攀 《太阳能学报》 北大核心 2025年第10期536-543,共8页
在直流微电网中,针对双有源桥式DC-DC变换器(DAB)应用模型预测控制算法时参数失配会导致母线电压偏离的问题,提出一种基于模糊电流观测的无模型预测控制策略。首先利用正弦函数的周期性设计具有多稳定点的滑模观测器对输出电流进行模糊... 在直流微电网中,针对双有源桥式DC-DC变换器(DAB)应用模型预测控制算法时参数失配会导致母线电压偏离的问题,提出一种基于模糊电流观测的无模型预测控制策略。首先利用正弦函数的周期性设计具有多稳定点的滑模观测器对输出电流进行模糊观测,可有效提高观测器的响应速度。然后,将滑模观测器的观测值替代变换器预测模型中的电流值,通过参数敏感性分析发现所提方法可消除预测控制模型参数不匹配导致的稳态误差。最后,搭建系统仿真模型和样机平台验证了所提方法的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 微电网 DC-DC变换器 模型预测控制 电流观测器
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土石坝溃决生命损失评估模型对比研究
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作者 王琳 晁星怡 +1 位作者 韩方波 何小亮 《自然灾害学报》 北大核心 2025年第3期145-157,共13页
土石坝溃决生命损失评估对于溃决事件应急处置极为重要。文中选取了数理统计、动态分析及物元对比共三类12种本领域现阶段具有代表性的生命损失评估模型,针对三类模型均未考虑人为、地理和经济发展与科学技术水平三类影响因素的特点,选... 土石坝溃决生命损失评估对于溃决事件应急处置极为重要。文中选取了数理统计、动态分析及物元对比共三类12种本领域现阶段具有代表性的生命损失评估模型,针对三类模型均未考虑人为、地理和经济发展与科学技术水平三类影响因素的特点,选取我国三大地区代表性溃坝案例,进行生命损失评估,明晰了各类模型的适用性以及模型的地区差异性,实现了模型的精确性检验,揭示了不同地区溃决生命损失评估结果的作用规律,并提出减小模型计算误差的建议。研究结果表明:目前土石坝溃决生命损失评估模型主要考虑了风险人口、警报时间、溃决洪水严重程度以及风险人口对溃决洪水严重性的理解程度四项主要因素,尚未考虑人为、地理和经济发展与科学技术水平三类影响因素。针对同一类型的3个地区生命损失开展评估时,土石坝溃决损失模型的构建亟需考虑不同地区人为、地理和经济发展与科学技术水平三类因素。在动态分析类模型中,ASSAF、HUANG和赵一梦3种模型均可推荐,这几种模型均侧重风险人口自身在溃决事件发生时所产生的不确定因素的影响,分别考虑了应急预案、救援能力、建筑物抗冲性能、建筑与交通等因素。王志军模型并未考虑与坝址距离、下游坡降、地形等地理因素,评估结果整体上偏安全。应用生命损失评估模型时,需全面梳理已产生损失数据的溃决案例,宝贵的第一手数据对深入研究和验证评估溃决损失评估模型至关重要。 展开更多
关键词 土石坝 生命损失 数理统计模型 物元对比模型 动态分析模型
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使用双优先预测层次模型联合决策的阿尔茨海默症预测方法
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作者 蒲秀娟 任青 +2 位作者 韩亮 谈云帆 刘媛 《电子测量与仪器学报》 北大核心 2025年第4期16-25,共10页
在阿尔茨海默症(AD)患者出现晚期症状之前,能够准确预测AD进展对于及时采取适当的治疗和干预措施至关重要。提出一种使用双优先预测层次模型联合决策的AD预测方法,将AD、轻度认知障碍(MCI)和认知正常(NC)3类别预测问题转化为两个层次的... 在阿尔茨海默症(AD)患者出现晚期症状之前,能够准确预测AD进展对于及时采取适当的治疗和干预措施至关重要。提出一种使用双优先预测层次模型联合决策的AD预测方法,将AD、轻度认知障碍(MCI)和认知正常(NC)3类别预测问题转化为两个层次的两类别预测问题。首先,从个体历史随访所获取的磁共振成像(MRI)和认知评分(CSs)两种模态的时间序列数据中提取统计特征,并使用累计加权嵌入式特征选择方法从MRI体积统计特征中选择出高重要性MRI体积统计特征;然后,构建NC优先预测层次模型和AD优先预测层次模型,利用提取得到的高重要性MRI体积统计特征和CSs统计特征,使用这两个层次模型的不同层次的预测结果进行联合决策,优先预测出样本中的NC个体和AD个体;最后确定MCI个体,实现AD/MCI/NC 3类别预测。在TADPOLE数据集上进行实验,AD预测方法的准确率为89.29%,F1分数的宏平均值为88.81%。实验结果表明,AD预测方法是有效的,且其性能优于传统的AD预测方法。 展开更多
关键词 阿尔茨海默症预测 层次模型 磁共振成像 认知评分 统计特征
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