The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribut...The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.展开更多
Aiming at the requirement of damage testing and evaluation of equivalent target plate based on the explosion of intelligent ammunition, this paper proposes a novel method for damage testing and evaluation method of ci...Aiming at the requirement of damage testing and evaluation of equivalent target plate based on the explosion of intelligent ammunition, this paper proposes a novel method for damage testing and evaluation method of circumferential equivalent target plate. Leveraging the dispersion characteristics parameters of fragment, we establish a calculation model of the fragment power situation and the damage calculation model under the condition of fragment ultimate penetration equivalent target plate. The damage model of equivalent target plate involves the fragment dispersion density, the local perforation damage criterion, the tearing damage model, and the damage probability. We use the camera to obtain the image of the equivalent target plate with fragment perforation, and research the algorithm of fragment distribution position recognition and fragment perforation area calculation method on the equivalent target plate by image processing technology. Based on the obtained parameters of the breakdown position and perforation area of fragments on equivalent target plate, we apply to damage calculation model of equivalent target plate, and calculate the damage probability of each equivalent target plate, and use the combined probabilistic damage calculation method to obtain the damage evaluation results of the circumferential equivalent target plate in an intelligent ammunition explosion experiment. Through an experimental testing, we verify the feasibility and rationality of the proposed damage evaluation method by comparison, the calculation results can reflect the actual damage effect of the equivalent target plate.展开更多
This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is establi...This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.展开更多
In an actual control system, it is often difficult to find out where the faults are if only based on the outside fault phenomena, acquired frequently from a fault system. So the fault diagnosis by outside fault phenom...In an actual control system, it is often difficult to find out where the faults are if only based on the outside fault phenomena, acquired frequently from a fault system. So the fault diagnosis by outside fault phenomena is considered. Based on the theory of fuzzy recognition and fault diagnosis, this method only depends on experience and statistical data to set up fuzzy query relationship between the outside phenomena (fault characters) and the fault sources (fault patterns). From this relationship the most probable fault sources can be obtained, to attain the goal of quick diagnosis. Based on the above approach, the standard fuzzy relationship matrix is stored in the computer as a system database. And experiment data are given to show the fault diagnosis results. The important parameters can be on line sampled and analyzed, and when faults occur, faults can be found, the alarm is given and the controller output is regulated.展开更多
The R F first order second moment method will produce more error for calculating the reliability of welded engineering pipe structures when the failure function is seriously nonlinear and the random variables don...The R F first order second moment method will produce more error for calculating the reliability of welded engineering pipe structures when the failure function is seriously nonlinear and the random variables don′t serve as normal distribution. In order to increase the computing accuracy of reliability, an improved FOSM method is used for calculating the failure probability of welded pipes with flaws in this paper. Because of solving the problems of the linear expansion of failure function at the failure point and constructing equivalent normal variables, the new algorithm can greatly improve the calculating accuracy of probability of the welded pipes with cracks. The examples show that this method is simple, efficient and accurate for reliability safety assessment of the welded pipes with cracks. It can save more time than the Monte Carlo method does, so that the improved FOSM method is recommended for engineering reliability safety assessment of the welded pipes with flaws.展开更多
As a result of the high speed of anti-submarine patrol aircraft as well as their wide range, high efficiency and other characteristics, aerial torpedoes released by anti-submarine patrol aircraft have become the key a...As a result of the high speed of anti-submarine patrol aircraft as well as their wide range, high efficiency and other characteristics, aerial torpedoes released by anti-submarine patrol aircraft have become the key anti submarine tool. In order to improve operational efficiency, a deep study was made of the target detection probabilities for aerial torpedoes released by anti-submarine patrol aircraft. The operational modes of aerial torpedoes were analyzed and mathematical-simulation models were then established. The detection probabilities of three attacking modes were then calculated. Measures were developed for improving low probabilities of detection when attacking a probable target position. This study provides an important frame of reference for the operation of aerial torpedo released by anti-submarine patrol aircraft.展开更多
In order to improve the broadcast reception rates of beacon messages in vehicle ad-hoc networks,a conclusion that the relationship between collision probability and minimum contention window size and the relationship ...In order to improve the broadcast reception rates of beacon messages in vehicle ad-hoc networks,a conclusion that the relationship between collision probability and minimum contention window size and the relationship between expiration probability and minimum window size was reached by building a Markov model. According to this conclusion, a back-off algorithm based on adjusting the size of minimum contention window called CEB is proposed, and this algorithm is on the basis of the differential size between the number of expiration beacons and preset threshold. Simulations were done to compare the performance of CEB with that of RBEB and BEB, and the results show that the performance of the new proposed algorithm is better than that of RBEB and BEB.展开更多
Relations between statistical residence time series and effective shooting are analyzed in accordance with the properties of the random residence time of maneuver targets crossing shot area in a given time. An estimat...Relations between statistical residence time series and effective shooting are analyzed in accordance with the properties of the random residence time of maneuver targets crossing shot area in a given time. An estimation method for kill probability is proposed, which solves the probability of number of residence times satisfied effective shooting in given time. Some expressions and their approximate formulae of kill probability are derived, under known the distribution of residence time series. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that this method is suitable for evaluating the hit ability of fire system for maneuver targets in random shooting.展开更多
In this paper, we consider the optimal problem of channels sharing with het-erogeneous traffic （real-time service and non-real-time service） to reduce the data conflict probability of users. Moreover, a multi-dimens...In this paper, we consider the optimal problem of channels sharing with het-erogeneous traffic （real-time service and non-real-time service） to reduce the data conflict probability of users. Moreover, a multi-dimensional Markov chain model is developed to analyze the performance of the proposed scheme. Meanwhile, performance metrics are derived. Numerical results show that the proposed scheme can effectively reduce the forced termination probability, blocking probability and spectrum utilization.展开更多
We investigate the possibility for two-mode probability density function （PDF） to have a non-zero flux steady state solution. We take the large volume limit so that the space of modes becomes continuous. It is shown...We investigate the possibility for two-mode probability density function （PDF） to have a non-zero flux steady state solution. We take the large volume limit so that the space of modes becomes continuous. It is shown that in this limit all the steady-state twoor higher-mode PDFs are the product of one-mode PDFs. The flux of this steady-state solution turns out to be zero for any finite mode PDF.展开更多
The probability-based covering algorithm(PBCA) is a new algorithm based on probability distribution. It decides, by voting, the class of the tested samples on the border of the coverage area, based on the probability ...The probability-based covering algorithm(PBCA) is a new algorithm based on probability distribution. It decides, by voting, the class of the tested samples on the border of the coverage area, based on the probability of training samples. When using the original covering algorithm(CA), many tested samples that are located on the border of the coverage cannot be classified by the spherical neighborhood gained. The network structure of PBCA is a mixed structure composed of both a feed-forward network and a feedback network. By using this method of adding some heterogeneous samples and enlarging the coverage radius,it is possible to decrease the number of rejected samples and improve the rate of recognition accuracy. Relevant computer experiments indicate that the algorithm improves the study precision and achieves reasonably good results in text classification.展开更多
Stress-induced failure is among the most common causes of instability in Canadian deep underground mines.Open stoping is the most widely practiced underground excavation method in these mines,and creates large stopes ...Stress-induced failure is among the most common causes of instability in Canadian deep underground mines.Open stoping is the most widely practiced underground excavation method in these mines,and creates large stopes which are subjected to stress-induced failure.The probability of failure(POF)depends on many factors,of which the geometry of an open stope is especially important.In this study,a methodology is proposed to assess the effect of stope geometrical parameters on the POF,using numerical modelling.Different ranges for each input parameter are defined according to previous surveys on open stope geometry in a number of Canadian underground mines.A Monte-Carlo simulation technique is combined with the finite difference code FLAC3D,to generate model realizations containing stopes with different geometrical features.The probability of failure(POF)for different categories of stope geometry,is calculated by considering two modes of failure;relaxation-related gravity driven(tensile)failure and rock mass brittle failure.The individual and interactive effects of stope geometrical parameters on the POF,are analyzed using a general multi-level factorial design.Finally,mathematical optimization techniques are employed to estimate the most stable stope conditions,by determining the optimal ranges for each stope’s geometrical parameter.展开更多
Recently a Hybrid Carrier （HC） scheme based on Weighted-type Fractional Fourier Transform （WFRFT） was proposed and developed, which contains Single Carrier （SC） and Multi-Carrier （MC） synergetie transmission. ...Recently a Hybrid Carrier （HC） scheme based on Weighted-type Fractional Fourier Transform （WFRFT） was proposed and developed, which contains Single Carrier （SC） and Multi-Carrier （MC） synergetie transmission. The wide interest is primarily due to its appealing characteristics, such as the robust performances in different types of selective fading channels and a great deal of potential for secure communications. According to the literatures, the HC signal and SC or MC signal probability distributions are different. In particular, some benefits of this HC scheme are brought by the quasi-Gaussian distribution of WFRFT signals. However, until now researchers have only presented statistic properties through computer simulations, and the accurate expressions of signals are not derived yet. In this paper, we derive the accu- rate and rigorously established closed-form expressions of Probability Density Function （PDF） of WFRFT signal real and imaginary parts with a large number of QPSK subcarriers, and this PDF can describe the behavior of data modulated by WFRFT, avoiding the complex computation for extensive computer simulations. Furthermore, the components of PDF expression are described and analyzed, and it is revealed that the tendency of signal quasi-Gaussian changes with the increasing of the parameter a （a in （0,1]）. To validate the analytical results, extensive simulations have been conducted, showing a very good match between the analytical results and the real situations. The contribution of this paper may be useful to deduce the closed form expressions of Bit Error Ratio （BER）, the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function （CCDF） of Peak to Average Power Ratio （PAPR）, and other analytical studies which adopt the PDF.展开更多
In order to obtain accurate probability integration method(PIM) parameters for surface movement of multi-panel mining, a genetic algorithm(GA) was used to optimize the parameters. As the measured surface movement is a...In order to obtain accurate probability integration method(PIM) parameters for surface movement of multi-panel mining, a genetic algorithm(GA) was used to optimize the parameters. As the measured surface movement is affected by more than one mining panel, traditional PIM parameter inversion model is difficult to ensure the reliability of the results due to the complexity of rock movement. With crossover,mutation and selection operators, GA can perform a global optimization search and has high computation efficiency. Compared with the pattern search algorithm, the fitness function can avoid falling into local minima traps. GA reduces the risk of local minima traps which improves the accuracy and reliability with the mutation mechanism. Application at Xuehu colliery shows that GA can be used to inverse the PIM parameters for multi-panel surface movement observation, and reliable results can be obtained. The research provides a new way for back-analysis of PIM parameters for mining subsidence under complex conditions.展开更多
BACKGROUND: Pulmonary embolism(PE) is one of the most frequent diseases that could be missed in overcrowded emergency departments as in Turkey. Early and accurate diagnosis could decrease the mortality rate and this s...BACKGROUND: Pulmonary embolism(PE) is one of the most frequent diseases that could be missed in overcrowded emergency departments as in Turkey. Early and accurate diagnosis could decrease the mortality rate and this standard algorithm should be defi ned. This study is to fi nd the accurate, fast, non-invasive, cost-effective, easy-to-access diagnostic tests, clinical scoring systems and the patients who should be tested for clinical diagnosis of PE in emergency department.METHODS: One hundred and forty patients admitted to the emergency department with the fi nal diagnosis of PE regarding to anamnesis, physical examination and risk factors, were included in this prospective, cross-sectional study. The patients with a diagnosis of pulmonary embolism, acute coronary syndrome or infection and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD) were excluded from the study. The demographics, risk factors, radiological fi ndings, vital signs, symptoms, physicallaboratory fi ndings, diagnostic tests and clinical scoring systems of patients(Wells and Geneva) were noted. The diagnostic criteria for pulmonary emboli were: fi lling defect in the pulmonary artery lumen on spiral computed tomographic angiography and perfusion defect on perfusion scintigraphy.RESULTS: Totally, 90(64%) of the patients had PE. Age, hypotension, having deep vein thrombosis were the risk factors, and oxygen saturation, shock index, BNP, troponin and fi brinogen levels as for the biochemical parameters were signifi cantly different between the PE(+) and PE(–) groups(P<0.05).The Wells scoring system was more successful than the other scoring systems.CONCLUSION: Biochemical parameters, clinical findings, and scoring systems, when used altogether, can contribute to the diagnosis of PE.展开更多
In this paper, we present a new car-following model by taking into account the effects of the traffic interruption probability on the car-following behaviour of the following vehicle. The stability condition of the mo...In this paper, we present a new car-following model by taking into account the effects of the traffic interruption probability on the car-following behaviour of the following vehicle. The stability condition of the model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. The modified Korteweg-de Vries （KdV） equation is constructed and solved, and three types of traffic flows in the headway sensitivity space-stable, metastable, and unstable--are classified. Both the analytical and simulation results show that the traffic interruption probability indeed has an influence on driving behaviour, and the consideration of traffic interruption probability in the car-following model could stabilize traffic flow.展开更多
Cognitive radio allows Secondary Users （SUs） to dynamically use the spectrum resource licensed to Prirmry Users （PUs）, and significantly improves the efficiency of spectrum utilization and is viewed as a promising...Cognitive radio allows Secondary Users （SUs） to dynamically use the spectrum resource licensed to Prirmry Users （PUs）, and significantly improves the efficiency of spectrum utilization and is viewed as a promising technology. In cognitive radio networks, the problem of power control is an important issue. In this paper, we mainly focus on the problem of power control for fading channels in cognitive radio networks. The spectrum sharing underlay scenario is considered, where SUs are allowed to coexist with PUs on the condition that the outage probability of PUs is below the maximum outage probability threshold limitation due to the interference caused by SUs. Moreover, besides the outage probability threshold which is defined to protect the performance of PUs, we also consider the maximum transmit power constraints for each SU. With such a setup, we emphasize the problem of power control to minimize the outage probability of each SU in fading channels. Then, based on the statistical information of the fading channel, the closed expression for outage probability is given in fading channels. The Dual-Iteration Power Control （DIPC） algorithm is also proposed to minimize the outage probability based on Perron-Frobenius theory and gradient descent method under the constraint condition. Finally, simulation results are illustrated to demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme.展开更多
The response of the train–bridge system has an obvious random behavior.A high traffic density and a long maintenance period of a track will result in a substantial increase in the number of trains running on a bridge...The response of the train–bridge system has an obvious random behavior.A high traffic density and a long maintenance period of a track will result in a substantial increase in the number of trains running on a bridge,and there is small likelihood that the maximum responses of the train and bridge happen in the total maintenance period of the track.Firstly,the coupling model of train–bridge systems is reviewed.Then,an ensemble method is presented,which can estimate the small probabilities of a dynamic system with stochastic excitations.The main idea of the ensemble method is to use the NARX(nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input)model to replace the physical model and apply subset simulation with splitting to obtain the extreme distribution.Finally,the efficiency of the suggested method is compared with the direct Monte Carlo simulation method,and the probability exceedance of train responses under the vertical track irregularity is discussed.The results show that when the small probability of train responses under vertical track irregularity is estimated,the ensemble method can reduce both the calculation time of a single sample and the required number of samples.展开更多
The wind effects on steady-state scan characteristics and hit probability of terminal-sensitive projectile were discussed in this paper. Considering wind as the constitutions of the average wind and the impulsive wind...The wind effects on steady-state scan characteristics and hit probability of terminal-sensitive projectile were discussed in this paper. Considering wind as the constitutions of the average wind and the impulsive wind, a simplified wind field model was established for the ballistic calculation of the steady-state scan phase; under the windy condition, the effects of the range wind and the beam wind on the steady-state scan characteristics of the terminal-sensitive projectile were analyzed in detail and its hit probabilities for a certain armored target were calculated. The calculated results show that, when the wind speed exceeds a certain value, the hit probabilities of terminal-sensitive projectile drop rapidly; the wind effects must be considered in the application of the terminal-sensitive projectiles. This paper provides some theoretical references for the fire wind speed correction and the global structure optimization of the terminal-sensitive projectile.展开更多
In this paper we generalize the aggregated premium income process from a constant rate process to a poisson process for the classical compound Poinsson risk model,then for the generalized model and the classical compo...In this paper we generalize the aggregated premium income process from a constant rate process to a poisson process for the classical compound Poinsson risk model,then for the generalized model and the classical compound poisson risk model ,we respectively get its survival probability in finite time period in case of exponential claim amounts.展开更多
文摘The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 62073256)the Shaanxi Provincial Science and Technology Department (Grant No. 2023-YBGY-342)。
文摘Aiming at the requirement of damage testing and evaluation of equivalent target plate based on the explosion of intelligent ammunition, this paper proposes a novel method for damage testing and evaluation method of circumferential equivalent target plate. Leveraging the dispersion characteristics parameters of fragment, we establish a calculation model of the fragment power situation and the damage calculation model under the condition of fragment ultimate penetration equivalent target plate. The damage model of equivalent target plate involves the fragment dispersion density, the local perforation damage criterion, the tearing damage model, and the damage probability. We use the camera to obtain the image of the equivalent target plate with fragment perforation, and research the algorithm of fragment distribution position recognition and fragment perforation area calculation method on the equivalent target plate by image processing technology. Based on the obtained parameters of the breakdown position and perforation area of fragments on equivalent target plate, we apply to damage calculation model of equivalent target plate, and calculate the damage probability of each equivalent target plate, and use the combined probabilistic damage calculation method to obtain the damage evaluation results of the circumferential equivalent target plate in an intelligent ammunition explosion experiment. Through an experimental testing, we verify the feasibility and rationality of the proposed damage evaluation method by comparison, the calculation results can reflect the actual damage effect of the equivalent target plate.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11472137).
文摘This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.
文摘In an actual control system, it is often difficult to find out where the faults are if only based on the outside fault phenomena, acquired frequently from a fault system. So the fault diagnosis by outside fault phenomena is considered. Based on the theory of fuzzy recognition and fault diagnosis, this method only depends on experience and statistical data to set up fuzzy query relationship between the outside phenomena (fault characters) and the fault sources (fault patterns). From this relationship the most probable fault sources can be obtained, to attain the goal of quick diagnosis. Based on the above approach, the standard fuzzy relationship matrix is stored in the computer as a system database. And experiment data are given to show the fault diagnosis results. The important parameters can be on line sampled and analyzed, and when faults occur, faults can be found, the alarm is given and the controller output is regulated.
文摘The R F first order second moment method will produce more error for calculating the reliability of welded engineering pipe structures when the failure function is seriously nonlinear and the random variables don′t serve as normal distribution. In order to increase the computing accuracy of reliability, an improved FOSM method is used for calculating the failure probability of welded pipes with flaws in this paper. Because of solving the problems of the linear expansion of failure function at the failure point and constructing equivalent normal variables, the new algorithm can greatly improve the calculating accuracy of probability of the welded pipes with cracks. The examples show that this method is simple, efficient and accurate for reliability safety assessment of the welded pipes with cracks. It can save more time than the Monte Carlo method does, so that the improved FOSM method is recommended for engineering reliability safety assessment of the welded pipes with flaws.
文摘As a result of the high speed of anti-submarine patrol aircraft as well as their wide range, high efficiency and other characteristics, aerial torpedoes released by anti-submarine patrol aircraft have become the key anti submarine tool. In order to improve operational efficiency, a deep study was made of the target detection probabilities for aerial torpedoes released by anti-submarine patrol aircraft. The operational modes of aerial torpedoes were analyzed and mathematical-simulation models were then established. The detection probabilities of three attacking modes were then calculated. Measures were developed for improving low probabilities of detection when attacking a probable target position. This study provides an important frame of reference for the operation of aerial torpedo released by anti-submarine patrol aircraft.
基金supported by National Basic Research Program of China (2013CB329005)National Natural Science Foundation of China (61302100, 61201162, 61471203)+1 种基金Basic Research Program of Jiangsu Province (BK2011027)Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education (20133223120002)
文摘In order to improve the broadcast reception rates of beacon messages in vehicle ad-hoc networks,a conclusion that the relationship between collision probability and minimum contention window size and the relationship between expiration probability and minimum window size was reached by building a Markov model. According to this conclusion, a back-off algorithm based on adjusting the size of minimum contention window called CEB is proposed, and this algorithm is on the basis of the differential size between the number of expiration beacons and preset threshold. Simulations were done to compare the performance of CEB with that of RBEB and BEB, and the results show that the performance of the new proposed algorithm is better than that of RBEB and BEB.
基金Sponsored by the National Defense Funds under Grant(9140C300602080C30)Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province China(2008011011)
文摘Relations between statistical residence time series and effective shooting are analyzed in accordance with the properties of the random residence time of maneuver targets crossing shot area in a given time. An estimation method for kill probability is proposed, which solves the probability of number of residence times satisfied effective shooting in given time. Some expressions and their approximate formulae of kill probability are derived, under known the distribution of residence time series. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that this method is suitable for evaluating the hit ability of fire system for maneuver targets in random shooting.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60972016,61231010)the Funds of Distinguished Young Scientists(2009CDA150)+1 种基金China-Finnish Cooperation Project(2010DFB10570)Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(20120142110015)
文摘In this paper, we consider the optimal problem of channels sharing with het-erogeneous traffic （real-time service and non-real-time service） to reduce the data conflict probability of users. Moreover, a multi-dimensional Markov chain model is developed to analyze the performance of the proposed scheme. Meanwhile, performance metrics are derived. Numerical results show that the proposed scheme can effectively reduce the forced termination probability, blocking probability and spectrum utilization.
基金Project supported by the Korean Research Foundation of the Korea Government (MEST) (Grant No. 2009-0073081)
文摘We investigate the possibility for two-mode probability density function （PDF） to have a non-zero flux steady state solution. We take the large volume limit so that the space of modes becomes continuous. It is shown that in this limit all the steady-state twoor higher-mode PDFs are the product of one-mode PDFs. The flux of this steady-state solution turns out to be zero for any finite mode PDF.
基金supported by the Fund for Philosophy and Social Science of Anhui Provincethe Fund for Human and Art Social Science of the Education Department of Anhui Province(Grant Nos.AHSKF0708D13 and 2009sk038)
文摘The probability-based covering algorithm(PBCA) is a new algorithm based on probability distribution. It decides, by voting, the class of the tested samples on the border of the coverage area, based on the probability of training samples. When using the original covering algorithm(CA), many tested samples that are located on the border of the coverage cannot be classified by the spherical neighborhood gained. The network structure of PBCA is a mixed structure composed of both a feed-forward network and a feedback network. By using this method of adding some heterogeneous samples and enlarging the coverage radius,it is possible to decrease the number of rejected samples and improve the rate of recognition accuracy. Relevant computer experiments indicate that the algorithm improves the study precision and achieves reasonably good results in text classification.
基金funded by a grant from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)the authors would like to acknowledge the Niobec mine (Saint-Honoré, QuébecQuébec)
文摘Stress-induced failure is among the most common causes of instability in Canadian deep underground mines.Open stoping is the most widely practiced underground excavation method in these mines,and creates large stopes which are subjected to stress-induced failure.The probability of failure(POF)depends on many factors,of which the geometry of an open stope is especially important.In this study,a methodology is proposed to assess the effect of stope geometrical parameters on the POF,using numerical modelling.Different ranges for each input parameter are defined according to previous surveys on open stope geometry in a number of Canadian underground mines.A Monte-Carlo simulation technique is combined with the finite difference code FLAC3D,to generate model realizations containing stopes with different geometrical features.The probability of failure(POF)for different categories of stope geometry,is calculated by considering two modes of failure;relaxation-related gravity driven(tensile)failure and rock mass brittle failure.The individual and interactive effects of stope geometrical parameters on the POF,are analyzed using a general multi-level factorial design.Finally,mathematical optimization techniques are employed to estimate the most stable stope conditions,by determining the optimal ranges for each stope’s geometrical parameter.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation General Program of China(No.61201146)the National Basic Research Program of China(2013CB329003)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(HIT.NSRIF.2015022)
文摘Recently a Hybrid Carrier （HC） scheme based on Weighted-type Fractional Fourier Transform （WFRFT） was proposed and developed, which contains Single Carrier （SC） and Multi-Carrier （MC） synergetie transmission. The wide interest is primarily due to its appealing characteristics, such as the robust performances in different types of selective fading channels and a great deal of potential for secure communications. According to the literatures, the HC signal and SC or MC signal probability distributions are different. In particular, some benefits of this HC scheme are brought by the quasi-Gaussian distribution of WFRFT signals. However, until now researchers have only presented statistic properties through computer simulations, and the accurate expressions of signals are not derived yet. In this paper, we derive the accu- rate and rigorously established closed-form expressions of Probability Density Function （PDF） of WFRFT signal real and imaginary parts with a large number of QPSK subcarriers, and this PDF can describe the behavior of data modulated by WFRFT, avoiding the complex computation for extensive computer simulations. Furthermore, the components of PDF expression are described and analyzed, and it is revealed that the tendency of signal quasi-Gaussian changes with the increasing of the parameter a （a in （0,1]）. To validate the analytical results, extensive simulations have been conducted, showing a very good match between the analytical results and the real situations. The contribution of this paper may be useful to deduce the closed form expressions of Bit Error Ratio （BER）, the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function （CCDF） of Peak to Average Power Ratio （PAPR）, and other analytical studies which adopt the PDF.
基金provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51404272)the Hunan Province Key Laboratory of Coal Resources Clean-Utilization and Mine Environment Protection(No.E21224)
文摘In order to obtain accurate probability integration method(PIM) parameters for surface movement of multi-panel mining, a genetic algorithm(GA) was used to optimize the parameters. As the measured surface movement is affected by more than one mining panel, traditional PIM parameter inversion model is difficult to ensure the reliability of the results due to the complexity of rock movement. With crossover,mutation and selection operators, GA can perform a global optimization search and has high computation efficiency. Compared with the pattern search algorithm, the fitness function can avoid falling into local minima traps. GA reduces the risk of local minima traps which improves the accuracy and reliability with the mutation mechanism. Application at Xuehu colliery shows that GA can be used to inverse the PIM parameters for multi-panel surface movement observation, and reliable results can be obtained. The research provides a new way for back-analysis of PIM parameters for mining subsidence under complex conditions.
文摘BACKGROUND: Pulmonary embolism(PE) is one of the most frequent diseases that could be missed in overcrowded emergency departments as in Turkey. Early and accurate diagnosis could decrease the mortality rate and this standard algorithm should be defi ned. This study is to fi nd the accurate, fast, non-invasive, cost-effective, easy-to-access diagnostic tests, clinical scoring systems and the patients who should be tested for clinical diagnosis of PE in emergency department.METHODS: One hundred and forty patients admitted to the emergency department with the fi nal diagnosis of PE regarding to anamnesis, physical examination and risk factors, were included in this prospective, cross-sectional study. The patients with a diagnosis of pulmonary embolism, acute coronary syndrome or infection and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD) were excluded from the study. The demographics, risk factors, radiological fi ndings, vital signs, symptoms, physicallaboratory fi ndings, diagnostic tests and clinical scoring systems of patients(Wells and Geneva) were noted. The diagnostic criteria for pulmonary emboli were: fi lling defect in the pulmonary artery lumen on spiral computed tomographic angiography and perfusion defect on perfusion scintigraphy.RESULTS: Totally, 90(64%) of the patients had PE. Age, hypotension, having deep vein thrombosis were the risk factors, and oxygen saturation, shock index, BNP, troponin and fi brinogen levels as for the biochemical parameters were signifi cantly different between the PE(+) and PE(–) groups(P<0.05).The Wells scoring system was more successful than the other scoring systems.CONCLUSION: Biochemical parameters, clinical findings, and scoring systems, when used altogether, can contribute to the diagnosis of PE.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 70701002 and 70521001)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No 2006CB705503)the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China (Grant No HKU7187/05E)
文摘In this paper, we present a new car-following model by taking into account the effects of the traffic interruption probability on the car-following behaviour of the following vehicle. The stability condition of the model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. The modified Korteweg-de Vries （KdV） equation is constructed and solved, and three types of traffic flows in the headway sensitivity space-stable, metastable, and unstable--are classified. Both the analytical and simulation results show that the traffic interruption probability indeed has an influence on driving behaviour, and the consideration of traffic interruption probability in the car-following model could stabilize traffic flow.
文摘Cognitive radio allows Secondary Users （SUs） to dynamically use the spectrum resource licensed to Prirmry Users （PUs）, and significantly improves the efficiency of spectrum utilization and is viewed as a promising technology. In cognitive radio networks, the problem of power control is an important issue. In this paper, we mainly focus on the problem of power control for fading channels in cognitive radio networks. The spectrum sharing underlay scenario is considered, where SUs are allowed to coexist with PUs on the condition that the outage probability of PUs is below the maximum outage probability threshold limitation due to the interference caused by SUs. Moreover, besides the outage probability threshold which is defined to protect the performance of PUs, we also consider the maximum transmit power constraints for each SU. With such a setup, we emphasize the problem of power control to minimize the outage probability of each SU in fading channels. Then, based on the statistical information of the fading channel, the closed expression for outage probability is given in fading channels. The Dual-Iteration Power Control （DIPC） algorithm is also proposed to minimize the outage probability based on Perron-Frobenius theory and gradient descent method under the constraint condition. Finally, simulation results are illustrated to demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme.
基金This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51978589,51778544,and 51525804).
文摘The response of the train–bridge system has an obvious random behavior.A high traffic density and a long maintenance period of a track will result in a substantial increase in the number of trains running on a bridge,and there is small likelihood that the maximum responses of the train and bridge happen in the total maintenance period of the track.Firstly,the coupling model of train–bridge systems is reviewed.Then,an ensemble method is presented,which can estimate the small probabilities of a dynamic system with stochastic excitations.The main idea of the ensemble method is to use the NARX(nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input)model to replace the physical model and apply subset simulation with splitting to obtain the extreme distribution.Finally,the efficiency of the suggested method is compared with the direct Monte Carlo simulation method,and the probability exceedance of train responses under the vertical track irregularity is discussed.The results show that when the small probability of train responses under vertical track irregularity is estimated,the ensemble method can reduce both the calculation time of a single sample and the required number of samples.
基金Sponsored by Doctoral Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (20093219120006)
文摘The wind effects on steady-state scan characteristics and hit probability of terminal-sensitive projectile were discussed in this paper. Considering wind as the constitutions of the average wind and the impulsive wind, a simplified wind field model was established for the ballistic calculation of the steady-state scan phase; under the windy condition, the effects of the range wind and the beam wind on the steady-state scan characteristics of the terminal-sensitive projectile were analyzed in detail and its hit probabilities for a certain armored target were calculated. The calculated results show that, when the wind speed exceeds a certain value, the hit probabilities of terminal-sensitive projectile drop rapidly; the wind effects must be considered in the application of the terminal-sensitive projectiles. This paper provides some theoretical references for the fire wind speed correction and the global structure optimization of the terminal-sensitive projectile.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(10071019)
文摘In this paper we generalize the aggregated premium income process from a constant rate process to a poisson process for the classical compound Poinsson risk model,then for the generalized model and the classical compound poisson risk model ,we respectively get its survival probability in finite time period in case of exponential claim amounts.
