Aiming at that the successive test data set of the strapdown inertial measurement unit is always small,a Bayesian method is used to study its statistical characteristics.Its prior and posterior distributions are set u...Aiming at that the successive test data set of the strapdown inertial measurement unit is always small,a Bayesian method is used to study its statistical characteristics.Its prior and posterior distributions are set up by the method and the pretest,sample and population information.Some statistical inferences can be made based on the posterior distribution.It can reduce the statistical analysis error in the case of small sample set.展开更多
A Bayesian sequential testing method is proposed to evaluate system reliability index with reliability growth during development.The method develops a reliability growth model of repairable systems for failure censore...A Bayesian sequential testing method is proposed to evaluate system reliability index with reliability growth during development.The method develops a reliability growth model of repairable systems for failure censored test,and figures out the approach to determine the prior distribution of the system failure rate by applying the reliability growth model to incorporate the multistage test data collected from system development.Furthermore,the procedure for the Bayesian sequential testing is derived for the failure rate of the exponential life system,which enables the decision to terminate or continue development test.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model and procedure.展开更多
裂缝型储层是一种含流体的裂缝-孔隙介质,其裂缝参数的定量表征对非常规油气藏的勘探与开发具有重要意义。然而,传统以振幅信息为主的储层预测方法存在局限性,难以全面揭示裂缝型储层的复杂特性。本文针对含饱和流体的正交裂缝型储层,...裂缝型储层是一种含流体的裂缝-孔隙介质,其裂缝参数的定量表征对非常规油气藏的勘探与开发具有重要意义。然而,传统以振幅信息为主的储层预测方法存在局限性,难以全面揭示裂缝型储层的复杂特性。本文针对含饱和流体的正交裂缝型储层,深入分析了含水平和垂直正交裂缝介质的速度频散与衰减特性,并采用各向异性反射率法模拟了单界面频散砂岩储层振幅随偏移距变化(amplitude variation with offset,AVO)的频变响应特征。在此基础上,构建了以水平和垂直正交裂缝模型响应为驱动的贝叶斯反演框架,实现了对裂缝型储层中孔隙度、裂缝密度及裂缝半径的多参数定量反演。研究结果表明,孔隙度、裂缝密度及裂缝半径对速度频散表现出高度敏感性,且在低频时PP波频变反射系数随频率和入射角发生显著变化,振幅随入射角的增大线性增加,揭示了裂缝参数对频变AVO响应有重要影响。反演结果表明,所提出的反演方法在不同裂缝参数条件下,后验概率分布都具有较高精度,尤其在小尺度裂缝型储层中,对裂缝半径预测表现出更好的适用性和可靠性。展开更多
文摘Aiming at that the successive test data set of the strapdown inertial measurement unit is always small,a Bayesian method is used to study its statistical characteristics.Its prior and posterior distributions are set up by the method and the pretest,sample and population information.Some statistical inferences can be made based on the posterior distribution.It can reduce the statistical analysis error in the case of small sample set.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70571083)the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (20094307110013)
文摘A Bayesian sequential testing method is proposed to evaluate system reliability index with reliability growth during development.The method develops a reliability growth model of repairable systems for failure censored test,and figures out the approach to determine the prior distribution of the system failure rate by applying the reliability growth model to incorporate the multistage test data collected from system development.Furthermore,the procedure for the Bayesian sequential testing is derived for the failure rate of the exponential life system,which enables the decision to terminate or continue development test.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model and procedure.
文摘裂缝型储层是一种含流体的裂缝-孔隙介质,其裂缝参数的定量表征对非常规油气藏的勘探与开发具有重要意义。然而,传统以振幅信息为主的储层预测方法存在局限性,难以全面揭示裂缝型储层的复杂特性。本文针对含饱和流体的正交裂缝型储层,深入分析了含水平和垂直正交裂缝介质的速度频散与衰减特性,并采用各向异性反射率法模拟了单界面频散砂岩储层振幅随偏移距变化(amplitude variation with offset,AVO)的频变响应特征。在此基础上,构建了以水平和垂直正交裂缝模型响应为驱动的贝叶斯反演框架,实现了对裂缝型储层中孔隙度、裂缝密度及裂缝半径的多参数定量反演。研究结果表明,孔隙度、裂缝密度及裂缝半径对速度频散表现出高度敏感性,且在低频时PP波频变反射系数随频率和入射角发生显著变化,振幅随入射角的增大线性增加,揭示了裂缝参数对频变AVO响应有重要影响。反演结果表明,所提出的反演方法在不同裂缝参数条件下,后验概率分布都具有较高精度,尤其在小尺度裂缝型储层中,对裂缝半径预测表现出更好的适用性和可靠性。
