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基于产业链传导机制的锡金属价格组合预测研究
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作者 向先迪 李云煜 +2 位作者 金刊 罗光武 刘春学 《中国矿业》 北大核心 2025年第2期244-255,共12页
锡是用途广泛的关键矿产资源,为维护锡产业的国际竞争力,需要关注产业链的发展,同时,近年来锡金属价格呈现剧烈波动,采用合理的方式预测锡金属价格对保障经济发展和资源安全具有重要意义。本文根据锡产品的生产过程将锡产业链细化,将产... 锡是用途广泛的关键矿产资源,为维护锡产业的国际竞争力,需要关注产业链的发展,同时,近年来锡金属价格呈现剧烈波动,采用合理的方式预测锡金属价格对保障经济发展和资源安全具有重要意义。本文根据锡产品的生产过程将锡产业链细化,将产业链价格波动传导机制作为一个整体与深度学习组合预测模型结合,并构建时间卷积双向门控循环单元融合注意力机制模型,即TCN-BiGRU-Attention组合模型来预测锡金属价格,得出以下结论:(1)锡产业链上下游其他产品价格波动及锡制造过程的产品价格波动,会通过锡产业链的传导效应引起锡锭价格变化,国际锡锭价格也会对国内锡锭价格产生影响,应该将产业链因素融入锡金属价格预测过程,以提高价格预测准确性,进而提高产业链效率和响应能力。(2)深度学习组合模型与单一的深度学习模型相比,组合模型能够有效降低误差,提高锡金属价格的预测精度,与真实值更加贴近,加入Attention机制后模型的预测性能有所提高。(3)考虑产业链因素后的价格预测结果误差比不考虑产业链因素的价格预测结果误差有所降低,在图形的拟合性,尤其是高值与低值的拟合方面表现出更优效果。为维护锡市场稳定,应重视产业链传导机制对价格预测的影响,关注国际锡金属价格和其他大宗商品价格,合理预测和及时调控锡金属价格,保障经济高质量发展和国家战略资源安全。 展开更多
关键词 锡金属 产业链传导机制 价格预测 深度学习组合 TCN-BiGRU-Attention模型
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Effects of caprock sealing capacities on coalbed methane preservation:Experimental investigation and case study 被引量:3
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作者 TIAN Fu-chao LIANG Yun-tao +1 位作者 WANG De-ming jin kan 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2019年第4期925-937,共13页
Caprocks play an important role in the trapping of coalbed methane(CBM)reservoirs.To study the sealing capacities of caprocks,five samples with different lithologies of Neogene clayrock,Paleogene redbeds,Permian sands... Caprocks play an important role in the trapping of coalbed methane(CBM)reservoirs.To study the sealing capacities of caprocks,five samples with different lithologies of Neogene clayrock,Paleogene redbeds,Permian sandstone,Permian mudstone and Permian siltstone were collected and tested using experimental methods of microstructure observation,pore structure measurement and diffusion properties determination.Results indicate that with denser structures,lower porosities,much more developed micropores/transition pores and higher pore/throat ratios,mudstone and siltstone have the more ideal sealing capacities for CBM preservation when comparing to other kinds of caprocks;the methane diffusion coefficients of mudstone/siltstone are about 6 times higher than sandstone and almost 90 times higher than clayrock/redbeds.To further estimate the CBM escape through caprocks,a one-dimensional CBM diffusion model is derived.Modeling calculation result demonstrates that under the same thickness,the CBM sealing abilities of mudstone/siltstone are almost 100 times higher than those of clayrock/redbeds,and nearly 17 times higher than sandstone,which indicates that the coal seam below caprocks like clayrock,redbeds or sandstone may suffer stronger CBM diffusion effect than that below mudstone or siltstone.Such conclusion is verified by the case study from III3 District,Xutuan Colliery,where the coal seam capped by Paleogene redbeds has a much lower CBM content than that capped by the Permian strata like mudstone,siltstone and sandstone. 展开更多
关键词 CAPROCK sealing capacity coalbed methane PRESERVATION
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