A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of avail...A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of available parking spaces(APS). First, several APS time series were decomposed and reconstituted by the wavelet transform. Then, using an artificial neural network, the following five strategies for multi-step-ahead time series forecasting were used to forecast the reconstructed time series: recursive strategy, direct strategy, multi-input multi-output(MIMO) strategy, DIRMO strategy(a combination of the direct and MIMO strategies), and newly proposed recursive multi-input multi-output(RECMO) strategy which is a combination of the recursive and MIMO strategies. Finally, integrating the predicted results with the reconstructed time series produced the final forecasted available parking spaces. Three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results. First, applying the wavelet transform to multi-step ahead available parking spaces forecasting can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy. Second, the forecasting resulted from the DIRMO and RECMO strategies is more accurate than that of the other strategies. Finally, the RECMO strategy requires less model training time than the DIRMO strategy and consumes the least amount of training time among five forecasting strategies.展开更多
As the demand for bike-sharing has been increasing,the oversupply problem of bike-sharing has occurred,which leads to the waste of resources and disturbance of the urban environment.In order to regulate the supply vol...As the demand for bike-sharing has been increasing,the oversupply problem of bike-sharing has occurred,which leads to the waste of resources and disturbance of the urban environment.In order to regulate the supply volume of bike-sharing reasonably,an estimating model was proposed to quantify the urban carrying capacity(UCC)for bike-sharing through the demand data.In this way,the maximum supply volume of bike-sharing that a city can accommodate can be obtained.The UCC on bike-sharing is reflected in the road network carrying capacity(RNCC)and parking facilities’carrying capacity(PFCC).The space-time consumption method and density-based spatial clustering of application with noise(DBSCAN)algorithm were used to explore the RNCC and PFCC for bike-sharing.Combined with the users’demand,the urban load ratio on bike-sharing can be evaluated to judge whether the UCC can meet users’demand,so that the supply volume of bike-sharing and distribution of the related facilities can be adjusted accordingly.The application of the model was carried out by estimating the UCC and load ratio of each traffic analysis zone in Nanjing,China.Compared with the field survey data,the effect of the proposed algorithm was verified.展开更多
基金Project(51561135003)supported by the International Cooperation and Exchange of the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(51338003)supported by the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of available parking spaces(APS). First, several APS time series were decomposed and reconstituted by the wavelet transform. Then, using an artificial neural network, the following five strategies for multi-step-ahead time series forecasting were used to forecast the reconstructed time series: recursive strategy, direct strategy, multi-input multi-output(MIMO) strategy, DIRMO strategy(a combination of the direct and MIMO strategies), and newly proposed recursive multi-input multi-output(RECMO) strategy which is a combination of the recursive and MIMO strategies. Finally, integrating the predicted results with the reconstructed time series produced the final forecasted available parking spaces. Three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results. First, applying the wavelet transform to multi-step ahead available parking spaces forecasting can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy. Second, the forecasting resulted from the DIRMO and RECMO strategies is more accurate than that of the other strategies. Finally, the RECMO strategy requires less model training time than the DIRMO strategy and consumes the least amount of training time among five forecasting strategies.
基金Project(2018YFE0120100)supported by the National Key R&D Program of ChinaProject(YBPY2040)supported by the Scientific Research Foundation of Graduate School of Southeast University,China。
文摘As the demand for bike-sharing has been increasing,the oversupply problem of bike-sharing has occurred,which leads to the waste of resources and disturbance of the urban environment.In order to regulate the supply volume of bike-sharing reasonably,an estimating model was proposed to quantify the urban carrying capacity(UCC)for bike-sharing through the demand data.In this way,the maximum supply volume of bike-sharing that a city can accommodate can be obtained.The UCC on bike-sharing is reflected in the road network carrying capacity(RNCC)and parking facilities’carrying capacity(PFCC).The space-time consumption method and density-based spatial clustering of application with noise(DBSCAN)algorithm were used to explore the RNCC and PFCC for bike-sharing.Combined with the users’demand,the urban load ratio on bike-sharing can be evaluated to judge whether the UCC can meet users’demand,so that the supply volume of bike-sharing and distribution of the related facilities can be adjusted accordingly.The application of the model was carried out by estimating the UCC and load ratio of each traffic analysis zone in Nanjing,China.Compared with the field survey data,the effect of the proposed algorithm was verified.
