摘要
【目的/意义】将时间序列分析方法引入情感分析,可以对微博突发事件衍生舆情作出科学预测,为政府掌握舆情情感走势,从而根据舆情发生的不同阶段采取相应的导控策略提供合理的意见与指导。【方法/过程】结合突发事件衍生舆情的特点,采用词集合并法、SO-PMI、PMI-IR等方法构建了微博突发事件衍生舆情专属情感词典,随后利用该情感词典和时间序列分析方法对"6.22"杭州保姆纵火案衍生舆情事件进行实证分析。【结果/结论】对该事件的日均情感值进行计算,与实际情感值拟合程度较好,证明了建立的衍生舆情情感词典及时间序列模型较为科学,可以为政府选择相应的策略及应对时机提供一定的参考。
【Purpose/significance】The time series analysis method is integrated into the sentiment analysis, which can make scientific prediction to the derivative public opinion of microblog, and then provide the reasonable advice and guidance for the government based on the stage of the public opinion.【Method/process】Combined with the characteristics of the derived public opinion for microblog emergencies, this paper uses the method of word set merging, SO-PMI and PMIIR to construct the sentiment lexicon suitable for the special sentiment analysis, then the Dictionary and time series analysis method are used to analyze the case of '6.22' Hangzhou nanny arson.【Result/conclusion】The average daily emotion value of this event is calculated and the sentiment value get good fitting degree, which proves that the established dictionary is affective and the time series model of the derived public opinion is accurate. So it can provide some reference for the government to choose the coping strategy and the time to deal with it.
作者
崔彦琛
张鹏
兰月新
吴立志
CUI Yan-chen;ZHANG Peng;LAN Yue-xin;WU Li-zhi(Chinese People's Armed Police Force Academy,Langfang 065000,China)
出处
《情报科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期119-126,共8页
Information Science
基金
教育部人文社科基金"面向突发事件的网络流言风险预警及对策研究冶(17YJC630214)
公安部理论与软科学项目"基于网络舆情综合研判的群体性事件预警研究(2015LLYJWJXY034)
全国统计科学研究重点项目"舆情大数据环境下突发事件民意监测与评估研究"(2017LZ37)
武警学院国家社科基金培育项目"大数据环境下公共危机事件情报挖掘与决策预警研究"(SKJJPY201721)
关键词
时间序列分析
情感分析
情感词典
衍生舆情
time series analysis
sentiment analysis
sentiment lexicon
derived public opinion
作者简介
崔彦琛(1994-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事消防应急管理研究;通讯作者:张鹏.
