摘要
采用双客观赋权法、综合评价模型计算2010—2023年河南省经济-环境-水资源的综合评价指数,运用脱钩模型分析其脱钩效应,借助耦合协调模型探究3个子系统的协调关系,采用障碍度模型识别影响系统协调发展的障碍因子。结果表明:经济子系统除研究末期呈下降趋势外,一直处于上升趋势,环境子系统呈“U”型趋势变化,水资源子系统呈下降和上升交替演变的发展趋势;经济发展与生态环境之间的脱钩类型为扩张负脱钩、强脱钩、弱脱钩和强负脱钩,而与水资源之间的脱钩类型又增加了增长连接类型;子系统间耦合协调度呈缓慢上升趋势,但其耦合协调水平较低,系统间仍处在濒临失调阶段;影响系统协调发展的障碍度从高到低依次是环境子系统、水资源子系统和经济子系统。
Using the dual objective weighting method,comprehensive evaluation model,and Tapio decoupling model to analyze the comprehensive evaluation index and decoupling effect of the economy environment water resources in Henan Province from 2010 to 2023,using the coupling coordination model to explore the coordination relationship of the three subsystems,and finally using the obstacle degree model to identify the obstacle factors that affect the coordinated development of the system.The results show that the economic subsystem has been on an upward trend except for a downward trend at the end of the research period,the environmental subsystem has shown a Ushaped trend change,and the water resources subsystem has shown a development trend of alternating decrease and increase;The decoupling types between economic development and ecological environment present four types:expansion negative decoupling,strong decoupling,weak decoupling,and strong negative decoupling,while the decoupling types between water resources have added growth connection types;The coupling coordination degree between subsystems shows a slow upward trend,but its coupling coordination level is relatively low,and the systems are still on the brink of imbalance;The obstacles that affect the coordinated development of the system,in descending order,are the environmental subsystem,water resources subsystem and economic subsystem.
作者
张骁睿
朱沼霖
ZHANG Xiaorui;ZHU Zhaolin(School of Urban Geology and Engineering,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050031,China;School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou Henan 450046,China)
出处
《河北环境工程学院学报》
2025年第6期55-63,共9页
Journal of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering
关键词
双客观赋权法
Tapio脱钩模型
耦合协调
障碍因子
dual objective weighting method
Tapio decoupling model
coupling coordination
obstacle factor
作者简介
张骁睿(2001-),男,河北张家口人,河北地质大学管理科学与工程专业硕士研究生在读,主要从事资源系统优化管理、产业振兴方面的研究。
