摘要
人力资本是现代经济增长的主要动力源泉,在人口负增长和老龄化不断深化的新人口发展形态下,增大人力资本存量和提升人力资本在经济增长中的效率显得尤为重要。然而,决定人力资本效率的因素除了自身结构、水平以及外在制度等因素外,还有没有其他因素发挥着不可替代的影响?为此,将人口规模纳入人力资本与经济增长的分析框架,理论分析和实证检验人口规模对于人力资本效率发挥的影响作用。结果证明:人口规模具有促使人力资本水平提升和效率倍增的回旋空间作用;主要机制除了较大人口规模意味着所蕴含的劳动者数量较多和质量相对较高外,更为重要的是人口规模通过所蕴含的市场规模效应对人力资本效率产生正向扩散影响;较大人口规模还可以通过大城市聚合人力资本产生裂变效应,从而使人力资本发挥应有效率。由此可推断,在未来人口负增长条件下,应保持巨大人口规模的稳定,继续增大人力资本存量并充分利用巨大人口规模形成的市场资源释放和提升人力资本效率,以保证经济高质量增长和发展。
Human capital is the main driving force for modern economic growth.In the new population development pattern of negative population growth and deepening aging,increasing the stock of human capital and improving its efficiency in economic growth are particularly important.However,besides factors such as their own structure,level,and external institutions,are there any other factors that play an irreplaceable role on the efficiency of human capital?To this end,population size is included into the analysis framework of human capital and economic growth,and the impact of population size on human capital efficiency and economic growth to theoretically analyze and empirically test the impact of population size on human capital efficiency.The results show that the population size has a role in providing a buffer space for the improvement of human capital level and efficiency.The main mechanism is not only that a larger population size implies a relatively larger number and quality of workers,but more importantly,population size exerts a positive diffusion effect on human capital efficiency through the market size effect it contains;A larger population size can also aggregate human capital in large cities to produce a fission effect,thereby enabling human capital to exert its due efficiency.Therefore,it can be inferred that under the condition of negative population growth in the future,we should maintain the stability of the huge population size,continue to increase the stock of human capital and make full use of the market resources formed by the huge population to release and improve the efficiency of human capital,so as to ensure high-quality economic growth and development.
作者
王金营
左贝宁
WANG Jinying;ZUO Beining(Faculty of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China)
出处
《人口与经济》
北大核心
2025年第6期17-30,共14页
Population & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重点课题“中国经济发展中人口回旋空间及其作用研究”(19ARK002)。
关键词
人力资本
人口规模
市场规模
经济高质量发展
human capital
population size
market size
high-quality economic development
作者简介
王金营,河北大学经济学院教授,河北大学人口与健康发展研究中心主任,燕赵文化高等文化研究院研究员,教育部长江学者特聘教授;左贝宁,河北大学经济学院硕士研究生。
