摘要
旅游经济韧性提升是推动旅游经济高质量发展的重要保障。探析城市旅游经济韧性的时空演化过程及其影响机理,有助于精准识别城市旅游系统的脆弱环节与恢复潜能,有的放矢地提升城市的旅游经济韧性。基于2012—2022年青岛市七区三市面板数据,构建旅游经济韧性评价指标体系,综合采用熵权TOPSIS法、核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数分析旅游经济韧性的时空演化特征,运用地理探测器探究其影响机理。研究结果表明:在时序演变上,旅游经济韧性在研究期内不断优化,低韧性行政辖区对高韧性行政辖区存在追赶效应,但旅游经济韧性有向多极化演变的态势;在空间演化上,旅游经济韧性整体表现为东高西低、南高北低的空间分异格局,韧性高值区呈现“点-线-面”空间扩散态势,区域差异呈现收敛态势;在空间差异上,旅游经济韧性差距主要源于区域间差异,东―西部差距趋于收敛,东―北部差距则呈扩大态势,西―北部差异始终保持最大;在影响因素上,城市化水平、旅游经济水平、旅游资源禀赋是当下影响旅游经济韧性的主要因素,三者的交互作用增强了其对旅游经济韧性的解释力。
Enhancing tourism economic resilience is vital for promoting the high-quality development of the tourism sector.Examining the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of urban tourism economic resilience helps identify the vulnerable links and recovery potential within urban tourism systems.Using panel data from seven districts and three county-level cities in Qingdao during 2012—2022,this study constructs an evaluation index system for tourism economic resilience.The entropy-weighted TOPSIS method,kernel density estimation,and Dagum Gini coefficient are applied to capture the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics,while the geographic detector is used to analyze the driving mechanisms.The results show that,temporally,tourism economic resilience has continuously improved,with low-resilience areas catching up with high-resilience ones,though a trend toward multi-polarization is emerging.Spatially,resilience exhibits a differentiated pattern—higher in the east and south,lower in the west and north—with high-value clusters spreading along a point-line-surface trajectory.Regional disparities show a converging trend,mainly driven by interregional differences:east-west gaps are narrowing,east-north gaps are widening,and west-north differences remain the largest.Urbanization level,tourism development,and tourism resource endowment serve as the dominant drivers,and their interactions significantly enhance the explanatory power for resilience variation.
作者
董文静
王昌森
张震
Dong Wenjing;Wang Changsen;Zhang Zhen(School of Management,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Department of Economic Management,Shandong Foreign Trade Vocational College,Qingdao 266100,China)
出处
《中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版)》
2025年第6期74-86,共13页
Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)
基金
青岛市社会科学规划项目“青岛市旅游经济韧性的时空格局及其影响因素”(QDSKL2301213)。
作者简介
董文静(1984-),女,河南清丰人,复旦大学管理学院博士后,山东外贸职业学院经济管理系教授,主要从事旅游产业可持续发展研究;通信作者:王昌森(1983-),男,山东泰安人,复旦大学管理学院博士后,主要从事文旅产业发展政策研究。
