摘要
厘清水利新质生产力发展水平的时空差异和空间相关性有助于相关政策的制定与实施,可为水利乃至经济社会高质量发展提供支撑。从高科技、高质量、高效能和绿色4个方面构建水利新质生产力的评价指标体系。采用实码加速遗传算法优化的投影寻踪模型(real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm optimized projection pursuit model,RAGA-PP)来测度水利新质生产力的发展水平。结合核密度估计与空间自相关分析方法,对水利新质生产力的时空差异特征和空间相关性进行探讨。结果表明:我国的30个省(自治区、直辖市)水利新质生产力发展水平均呈现曲线型上升趋势,同时表现出较为显著的两级分化现象,华东地区水利新质生产力水平较高,而东北、西北和西南地区则相对滞后;我国各省(自治区、直辖市)的水利新质生产力在空间上呈现正相关关系,但空间相关程度较低,仍需加强资源整合,以实现全局性的水利发展提质增效。
In the new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation,a new quality productivity type,characterized by innovation,high technology,high efficiency,and high quality,has gradually emerged,and has become a crucial force in promoting high quality economic and social development.Water conservancy is not only a foundational industry,but also a significant application area for strategic emerging and future industries,making the cultivation and enhancement of its new form of production particularly important.The development of water conservancy's new form of production needs to be effectively integrated with major national development strategies,promoting the enhancement of water resource carrying capacity across regions and basins,and ensuring the sustainability of economic and social development.Based on relevant data from China's provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)from 2011 to 2022,this study constructs an evaluation index system for the new quality productivity of water conservancy(NQPWC)from four dimensions:high technology,high efficiency,high quality and green.A projection pursuit model utilizing the real-coded accelerated genetic algorithm is employed to determine weights,thereby calculating the development levels of the NQPWC across various provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities).The temporal evolution characteristics of China's NQPWC development are analyzed using kernel density estimation.Global Moran's I and local Moran's I indices are applied to assess the spatial agglomeration and status of NQPWC in China.The results indicate that the overall development level of China's NQPWC shows a zigzag upward trend,with most provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)experiencing some improvement,although the overall development level remains low,leaving substantial room for advancement.Regionally,the eastern region exhibits better development levels,while the northern and central regions show a zigzag upward trend.The northeastern,northwestern,and southwestern regions lag behind in development.The provincial disparities in high quality water conservancy development in China initially decrease,then expand,and subsequently decrease again,with an increasingly severe polarization phenomenon.The spatial correlation of the provincial development levels of NQPWC is relatively low,with uneven spatial distribution.Notably,provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in the eastern region demonstrate close development correlations and mutual coordination,achieving high levels of development.Only Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Anhui,and Shandong have consistently maintained a high-high clustering status.Shanxi,Guizhou,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia,and Jilin have remained in a low-low clustering status.Liaoning,Hubei,Hunan,Chongqing,Sichuan,Yunnan,and Shaanxi have exhibited fluctuations across different clustering states,indicating that these provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)possess the potential to develop towards a higher clustering status but have not fully capitalized on their inherent advantages and resources.For instance,Hubei,Hunan,Chongqing,Sichuan,and Yunnan,being provinces(autonomous regions and mmunicipalities)along the Yangtze River,are endowed with abundant water resources and should attract talent and further strengthen technological development to steadily enhance their provincial productivity development levels.In summary,detailed water conservancy development plans should be formulated by each province,clearly outlining development objectives,key tasks,and safeguard measures.These plans should fully consider local water resource conditions,economic and social development needs,and environmental protection requirements,ensuring the coordination of water conservancy development with regional development.The northeastern,southwestern,and northwestern regions should place greater emphasis on water conservancy talent development,implementing preferential policies and creating development platforms to attract and retain excellent talent.The provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)along the Yangtze River that exhibit unstable development should enhance the attraction of water conservancy talent and the high-quality development of technology,and elevate the levels of digitalization,networking,and intelligentization in water conservancy management and governance.Additionally,enhancing training and education for water conservancy professionals will improve their professional competence and comprehensive abilities.
作者
杨亚锋
张文宝
李爱华
周晓晓
王红瑞
李一阳
YANG Yafeng;ZHANG Wenbao;LI Aihua;ZHOU Xiaoxiao;WANG Hongrui;LI Yiyang(College of Sciences,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan 063210,China;College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Shandong Academy for Environmental Planning,Jinan 250101,China)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》
2025年第5期1153-1162,共10页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3205600)
国家自然科学基金项目(52279005)。
关键词
水利新质生产力
时空差异
相关性
RAGA-PP
核密度
莫兰指数
new quality productivity of water conservancy
spatial and temporal difference
correlation
RAGA-PP
kernel density
Moran's index
作者简介
杨亚锋(1985-),男,河南宝丰人,副教授,博士,主要从事水资源系统分析等研究。E-mail:hblgyyf@ncst.edu.cn;通信作者:王红瑞(1963-),男,河南新乡人,教授,博士,博士生导师,主要从事水利经济等研究。E-mail:henrywang@bnu.edu.cn。
