摘要
旨在探讨远程办公的长期施行所可能导致的人口空间重构。以上海为例,基于对822位受访者的问卷调查数据,构建远程办公意愿模型和迁居意向模型。发现工作属性是影响人们选择办公方式的主导因素;人们偏好设施水平高、公园可达性好、人口密度低、对本人和配偶通勤均便利的居住地,且线上办公程度越高,迁居市外的可能性越大。用合成人口数据模拟个人办公方式选择和家庭迁居决策,发现远程办公占比为71.6%,因远程办公而迁居的家庭占全市家庭约12%,迁往市外的家庭约占5%。人口空间重构的态势为“大分散,小集中,导入区年轻化”,江浙是主要的市外迁居地,市内人口净导入板块集中在中心城区设施水平高的个别板块和远郊生态品质高的板块。
The purpose of this paper is to explore the population redistribution that may result from the long-term implementation of teleworking.Taking Shanghai as a case study,based on questionnaire survey data from 822 respondents,the teleworking intention model and the home relocation intention model are constructed.Work attributes are the dominant factors influencing people’s choice of working style.People prefer residential areas with high levels of facilities,good access to parks,low population density,and convenient commuting for themselves and their spouses.The greater the extent of teleworking,the higher the likelihood of relocating outside the city.Using synthetic population data to simulate individuals’working style choices and family relocation decisions,it is found that 71.6%of individuals would engage in teleworking,about 12%of households would relocate,and about 5%would move to areas outside the city.The spatial pattern of population redistribution is characterized by broad dispersion,local concentration,and rejuvenation of inflow areas.Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are the main destinations for households relocating outside Shanghai.Within the city,net population inflows are concentrated in certain central districts with high-quality facilities and in suburban areas with high ecological quality.
作者
朱玮
陈珂苑
ZHU Wei;CHEN Keyuan
出处
《城市规划》
2025年第9期23-31,114,共10页
City Planning Review
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41771168)。
关键词
远程办公
人口分布
迁居选择
叙述偏好
上海
teleworking
population distribution
relocation choice
stated preference
Shanghai
作者简介
通信作者:朱玮(1978-),男,博士,同济大学建筑与城市规划学院城市规划系副教授、博士生导师,上海同济城市规划设计研究院有限公司数字规划技术研究中心主任研究员;陈珂苑(1998-),女,硕士,同济大学建筑与城市规划学院城市规划系,上海城策行建筑规划设计咨询有限公司助理规划师。
