摘要
低/零碳甲醇、氨等船用替代燃料是国际航运温室气体减排的中长期解决方案,不同路径低/零碳船用燃料的发展潜力也各不相同。基于德尔菲法、层次分析法和模糊聚类分析方法建立了专家决策系统,针对19条典型候选路径,考虑能源可获得性、经济性、技术成熟度、环保特性、政策法规、安全性和发展潜力7个评估要素,对不同路径下低/零碳甲醇、氨的发展潜力进行评估。向业内18位专家开展权重调研,得到7个要素的权重,分别为21.52%、23.68%、7.83%、15.26%、11.11%、10.79%和9.81%;专家在技术成熟度、安全性和发展潜力重要性上存在一定争议。经评估,生活垃圾制甲醇、化石点源捕获CO_(2)+可再生电力H_(2)制甲醇、可再生电力分离N_(2)+可再生电力H_(2)制氨、秸秆制甲醇、化石燃料结合碳捕集与储存技术制甲醇、焦炉气制甲醇及化石点源+生物质点源捕获CO_(2)制甲醇为当前具有较大发展潜力的路径。所建立的专家决策系统和评估结果可为航运业低/零碳替代燃料发展路线的选择、技术发展及政策制定提供有价值的参考。
Alternative marine fuels,such as low/zero-carbon methanol and ammonia,are the predominant mid to long-term solutions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in international shipping sector.However,the development potentials of low/zero-carbon marine fuels vary depending on different pathways.An expert decision-making system was established based on the Delphi,Analytic Hierarchy Process,and Fuzzy Cluster Analysis method.For 19 typical candidate pathways,seven evaluation factors including energy availability,economy,technological maturity,environmental performance,policies and regulations,safety,and future scalability were considered to evaluate the development potential of low/zerocarbon methanol and ammonia under different pathways,based on the expert decision-making system.Through conducting a weight survey with 18 industrial experts,the weights of seven evaluation factors were found to be 21.52%,23.68%,7.83%,15.26%,11.11%,10.79%,and 9.81%,respectively;meanwhile,regarding the importance of technological maturity,safety,and future scalability,there is some controversy among experts.Methanol produced from municipal solid waste,methanol produced from CO_(2)capture from fossil point sources and renewable electricity-based H_(2),ammonia produced from renewable electricity-based N_(2)and renewable electricity-based H_(2),methanol produced from crop straws,methanol produced from fossil fuels combining with carbon capture and storage technology,methanol produced from coke oven gas,and methanol produced from CO_(2)captured from fossil point sources and biomass point sources,are currently pathways with great development potential.The established expert decision-making system and evaluation results can provide valuable references for the development route selection,technology development and policy formulation of low/zero carbon alternative fuels in the shipping industry.
作者
熊吕露
常圣岱
郭恒宇
江东
XIONG Lyulu;CHANG Shengdai;GUO Hengyu;JIANG Dong(China Classification Society Jiangsu Branch,Nanjing 210003,Jiangsu,China;China Classification Society Science&Technology Innovation and Test Center,Beijing 100027,China;China Classification Society Qingdao Branch,Qingdao 266011,China)
出处
《中国航海》
2025年第S1期36-43,共8页
Navigation of China
关键词
航运脱碳
船用替代燃料
低/零碳甲醇
低/零碳氨
专家决策系统
shipping decarbonization
alternative marine fuels
low/zero-carbon methanol
low/zero-carbon ammonia
expert decision-making system
作者简介
熊吕露(1993-),男,工程师,研究方向为船舶结构振动、船舶能效与温室气体排放评估技术、船舶标准化。E-mail:llxiong@ccs.org.cn
