摘要
在全球气候变化与“双碳”目标背景下,能源消耗大、排放强度高的平板玻璃企业急需实现绿色低碳转型。研究首先界定平板玻璃企业绿色低碳转型的内涵,识别出技术、能源、资源、经济与管理五大核心维度,并基于文献分析法系统梳理了22个关键影响因素。其次,引入决策试验和评价试验法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)方法刻画因素间的因果关系,识别关键驱动因素。最后,使用Vensim PLE软件构建系统动力学模型,并验证合理性与有效性。此外,研究围绕五大核心维度设计生产技术改进、能源结构优化、资源优化配置、绿色价值提升、管理调整升级5条转型路径,对现有路径与综合调整路径共七类路径情景开展仿真模拟。仿真结果显示:各路径对转型均具有正向作用,同时与单一路径相比,综合调整路径更能促进绿色低碳转型,且该路径下绿色低碳转型指数增长了55.15%;在转型初期,能源结构优化路径作用显著;长期来看,生产技术改进路径发挥关键作用,后期对综合调整路径的贡献率高达49.43%。
This study integrates the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method with a system dynamics model to systematically investigate the green and low-carbon transformation path for flat glass enterprises.First,we define the concept of green and low-carbon transformation specific to these enterprises and identify 22 key influencing factors across five core dimensions:technology,energy,resources,economy,and management.Utilizing the DEMATEL method,we clarify the causal relationships among these factors and pinpoint the core driving elements necessary for transformation.Building on this foundation,a system dynamics model was constructed using Vensim PLE software,calibrated,and verified with data from China's flat glass enterprises spanning 2015 to 2022.Five transformation paths were designed to enhance production technology,optimize the energy structure,achieve optimal resource allocation,elevate green value,and facilitate management adjustment and upgrading.Additionally,seven scenarios were established to conduct simulation analyses.The results indicate that each transformation path positively impacts the overall transition,with the comprehensive adjustment path yielding the most significant effect.By 2030,this path is projected to increase the green low-carbon transformation index by 55.15%.The energy structure optimization path demonstrates a notable short-term impact on emission reduction,achieving a carbon emission intensity reduction of 10.66%in the first year.Meanwhile,the production technology improvement path exhibits a long-term cumulative effect,contributing as much as 49.43%to the overall transformation in its later stages.The other paths also demonstrate positive outcomes.The other paths also demonstrate positive results,with key indicators showing significant improvements.Notably,energy consumption per unit of product decreased by 25.36%,while sulfur dioxide emissions per unit of product dropped by 30.14%.Additionally,the green economy benefits increased by 41.98%.These findings further validate the scientific and effective design of the transformation paths.This study offers a theoretical foundation and practical reference for flat glass enterprises to develop scientific and feasible green and low-carbon transformation strategies.It recommends that these enterprises strengthen technological innovation,implement phased adjustments to the energy structure,enhance resource allocation efficiency,improve green management mechanisms,and bolster the operational capacity of carbon assets.By doing so,they can effectively advance both green transformation and high-quality development in a synergistic manner.
作者
陆秋琴
董梦晗
LU Qiuqin;DONG Menghan(School of Management,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710055,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
2025年第9期3339-3351,共13页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
陕西省哲学社会科学研究专项“我省实现双碳目标转型成本及操作风险研究”(2022HZ1555)。
关键词
环境工程学
平板玻璃企业
绿色低碳转型
系统动力学
决策试验和评价试验法
environmental engineering
flat glass enterprise
green and low-carbon transformation
system dynamics
decision making trial and evaluation laboratory
作者简介
陆秋琴,教授,博士,从事企业绿色转型、企业低碳发展方向研究,luqiuqin@xauat.edu.cn。
