摘要
石化行业作为国民经济的支柱性产业,正处于提质增效的关键时期。在日益严峻的经济环境约束下,石化行业产业链的转型升级是实现行业绿色低碳可持续发展的重要驱动力。为解决转型顶层设计不足、路径不明的问题,以绿色低碳、链接共生和高端差异为导向,构建了石化产业链转型经济环境效益评估体系。该体系包括产业链现状分析、产品调整方向识别、经济环境效益评估3个模块,融合物质流、价值流、能源流、污碳流等方法,可阐明产业链延链、补链和强链方向,定量揭示转型带来的综合效益。该体系应用于大庆市重点石化产业链转型。结果显示,大庆市应推动乙烯、丙烯和芳烃产业链与新能源、锂电池等新兴行业共生发展,并向茂金属薄膜、环氧树脂等高附加值产品延伸。综合效益评估表明,拟发展产业链利润率在21%~93%,产业链平均碳生产率达到0.63万元/t CO_(2)。石化行业加强与下游部门共生关系对推动产业链延伸和价值提升至关重要,且应采用经济环境综合评价探究更优的转型路径。该评价体系可为其他地区石化产业链的转型升级提供科学可行的路径指引,助力石化行业高质量转型。
As a cornerstone of the national economy,the petrochemical industry stands at a crucial crossroads for enhancing quality and efficiency.With the pressures of increasingly stringent economic and environmental regulations,the transformation and upgrading of the petrochemical industrial chain have become essential drivers for fostering green,low-carbon,and sustainable development within the sector.However,challenges such as insufficient top-level design and ambiguous transformation pathways impede progress in this sector.To tackle these issues,this paper presents a comprehensive evaluation system for the transformation of the petrochemical industrial chain.This system is grounded in principles of green and low-carbon development,the symbiotic growth of upstream and downstream sectors,and the promotion of a high-end differentiated product structure.This system consists of three key components:industrial chain situation analysis,transition direction identification,and economic-environmental benefit assessment.By employing a material-value-energy-carbon-pollution flow analysis method,the system can identify potential directions for industrial chain extension and quantitatively evaluate the comprehensive benefits resulting from industrial transformation.Using the Daqing petrochemical industry as a case study,the results indicate that the development orientations for industrial chains should focus on strengthening symbiotic linkages with downstream emerging sectors,such as new energy and lithium battery industries.Additionally,there is a need to promote the development of high-end products,including metallocene films and epoxy resins.Based on a thorough evaluation of economic output,environmental impact,and carbon productivity,this study proposed five upgraded industrial chains projected to achieve profit margins ranging from 21%to 93%,with an average carbon productivity of 6300 CNY per ton of CO_(2).The findings emphasize the critical role of strengthening symbiotic linkages with downstream sectors to facilitate industrial chain extension and enhance value creation.Moreover,this study underscores the necessity of adopting integrated economic-environmental evaluation metrics to identify more effective transformation solutions.This proposed evaluation system enables the development of scientifically grounded strategies for the transformation of the petrochemical industrial chain,promoting the high-quality evolution of the industry in regions facing similar challenges.
作者
徐峰
洪之涵
舒畅
XU Feng;HONG Zhihan;SHU Chang(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
2025年第9期3307-3319,共13页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展联合研究项目(2022-YRUC-01-0403)。
关键词
环境科学技术基础学科
石化产业链转型
经济环境效益
评估体系
物质流分析
basic disciplines of environmental science and technology
petrochemical industrial chains transformation
economic and environmental benefits
evaluation system
material flow analysis
作者简介
徐峰,教授,博士,从事环境经济政策模拟与决策优化、资源环境经济与管理、复杂系统建模仿真等研究,xufeng@buct.edu.cn;通信作者:舒畅,博士研究生,从事资源环境管理与政策研究,shuchang61@buct.edu.cn。
