摘要
消费是刺激经济增长的主要动力之一,当前我国正面临人口结构老龄化和少子化的双重变动,这对我国消费尤其是休闲消费产生了重要影响。本文收集2009—2023年我国省域面板数据,通过构建面板计量模型,就人口结构变化对居民休闲消费水平的影响效应及区域异质性进行了实证研究。研究表明,老年抚养比和少儿抚养比的增加均能有效促进居民的休闲消费;收入水平、城市化和社会保障水平也是影响居民休闲消费的重要因素;分区域实证显示,中部地区老年抚养比和少儿抚养比对居民休闲消费影响效应均大于东部与西部地区。据此,本文提出了促进我国休闲消费发展的相关政策建议,以供参考。
Consumption is one of the primary drivers of economic growth.Currently,China is facing dual demographic shifts of population aging and declining birth rates,which have significant implications for domestic consumption,particularly in the leisure sector.This study collects provincial panel data from 2009 to 2023 and constructs a panel econometric model to empirically examine the impact of demographic changes on residents’leisure consumption and the regional heterogeneity of this effect.The results indicate that increases in both the elderly dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio effectively promote leisure consumption.Additionally,income levels,urbanization,and social security are important factors influencing residents’leisure consumption.Regional analysis shows that in central China,the effects of elderly and child dependency ratios on leisure consumption are greater than those in eastern and western regions.Based on these findings,the paper proposes relevant policy recommendations to promote the development of leisure consumption in China.
作者
谷宇
Gu Yu(College of Arts and Sciences,Yangtze University,Jingzhou,Hubei 434000)
出处
《中国商论》
2025年第18期59-62,共4页
China Journal of Commerce
基金
湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究项目(21G215)。
关键词
休闲消费
人口结构变动
老年抚养比
少儿抚养比
区域差异
leisure consumption
population change
elderly dependency ratio
child dependency ratio
regional differences
作者简介
谷宇(1986-),男,汉族,湖北荆州人,讲师,硕士,研究方向:产业经济。
