摘要
探究新疆草原常见植物分布格局及其气候影响因素,有助于促进草原的可持续发展。本研究利用最大熵模型(Maximum Entropy Model,MaxEnt)和地理信息系统,基于32种植物地理分布数据及19个生物气候因子,结合AUC值验证模型精度。研究表明,在高海拔地区,降水对牧草影响显著,如蒿叶猪毛菜(Oreosalsola abrotanoides)和博洛塔绢蒿(Seriphidium borotalense)的分布主要受年降水量的影响,而伊犁绢蒿(Seriphidium transiliense)和新疆银穗草(Leucopoa olgae)则更多受年平均温度影响;未来气候情景预测表明,适生区面积整体呈增大趋势。例如,SSP126情景下,骆驼刺(Alhagi camelorum)在新疆南部向西北部扩张,扩张率为2.27%,而穗状寒生羊茅(Festuca kryloviana)在塔城、哈密北部以及克州等地有所减少,缩减率为1.69%;SSP245情景下,盐爪爪(Kalidium foliatum)向新疆北部地区扩张,扩张率为2.22%。大叶白麻(Poacynum hendersonii)向塔里木盆地扩增,扩张率为10.98%。MaxEnt模型在两种气候情景下模拟精度值均大于0.85,表现出较高的可信度。本研究为新疆常见植物的可持续利用与保护提供了重要依据。
Explorating the distribution patterns of common plants in Xinjiang grassland and the influence of climate factors are conducive to strengthening the sustainable development of grassland.Based on the geographic distribution data of 32 plants and 19 bioclimatic factors,the accuracy of the model was verified by combining AUC value.The results showed that precipitation had a significant effect on forage in high altitude areas.For example,the annual precipitation mainly affected the forage grass of Oreosalsola abrotanoides and Seriphidium borotalense.Seriphidium transiliense and Leucopoa olgae were more affected by the annual mean temperature.The prediction of future climate scenario shows that the area of suitable area will increase as a whole.For example,under the SSP126 scenario,Alhagi camelorum expanded to the northwest in southern Xinjiang with an expansion rate of 2.27%.However,the spike of Festuca kryloviana decreased in Tacheng prefecture,northern Hami area and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture,with a reduction rate of 1.69%.Under the SSP245 scenario,Kalidium foliatum expanded to northern Xinjiang,with an expansion rate of 2.22%.Poacynum hendersonii expanded to Tarim Basin with an expansion rate was 10.98%.The simulation accuracy of MaxEnt model are both greater than 0.85 under the two climate scenarios,showing high reliability.This study provides an important basis for the sustainable utilization and protection of common plants in Xinjiang.
作者
靳连武
赵金
邵倩影
纪宝明
李雪锋
李凯辉
隋晓青
公延明
JIN Lian-wu;ZHAO Jin;SHAO Qian-ying;JI Bao-ming;LI Xue-feng;LI kai-hui;SUI Xiao-qing;GONG Yan-ming(College of Prataculture,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China;Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830011,China;School of Geography and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830054,China;College of Prataculture and Grassland,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;Real Estate Registration Center of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002,China;Bayinbuluk Alpine Grassland Observation and Research Station of Xinjiang,Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture,Xinjiang 841314,China)
出处
《草地学报》
2025年第9期2973-2991,共19页
Acta Agrestia Sinica
基金
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0403)资助。
作者简介
靳连武(1999-),女,汉族,青海乐都人,硕士研究生,主要研究领域草原生态学,E-mail:jinlianwu_20@163.com;通信作者:隋晓青,E-mail:sxq303@163.com;通信作者:公延明,E-mail:gongym@ms.xjb.ac.cn。
