摘要
从美国联盟体系角度看,埃及在美埃关系中处于从属地位。穆巴拉克时期,埃及在战略上高度依赖美国,这虽有利于保持政局稳定,但在一定程度上令埃及失去战略自主和纳赛尔时期享有的地区主导地位。穆巴拉克积极推进平衡外交,但效果较为有限。塞西上台后,在冲突与合作的双重影响下,埃及外交战略逐步实现以谋求战略主动性、地区主导性和国家安全为核心内容的“软平衡”外交战略转型。但“软平衡”战略的实施同样存在风险,战略运用有误则极易招致美国的猜忌甚至制裁,或引发大国势力竞争而导致地区安全危机。总体而言,塞西执政期间,埃及对美外交战略转型较为成功,两国关系虽有摩擦,但双方安全合作需求远大于分歧和矛盾。未来埃及对美外交战略会不断调整,在国际大国间和地区强国间稳步构建“软平衡”战略模式。
Egypt is in a typical subordinate position within the US alliance system and is clearly at a disadvantage in international competition.Egypt's strategic orientation toward the United States during the Mubarak period was characterized by significant dependence,stemming from the dominant role of U.S.policy in the Middle East.Although the political situation was relatively stable,to some extent,it also led to Egypt losing its strategic autonomy and the regional dominance it enjoyed during the Nasser era.Although Mubarak actively promoted a balanced foreign policy,the effect was rather limited.After taking office,the current Egyptian leader,Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,faced both internal and external challenges.During his several years in power,he has handled the fluctuations brought about by changes in relations with the United States relatively well,avoiding getting embroiled in the competition among major powers while achieving a certain degree of strategic autonomy in terms of economy and security.Under the dual influence of conflict and cooperation,Sisi's foreign policy has gradually transformed into a"soft balancing"strategy centered on seeking strategic initiative,regional dominance,and national security.However,the implementation of the"soft balancing"strategy also carries certain risks and crises.If the strategy is misused,it could easily arouse suspicion or even sanctions from the United States,or trigger regional security crises due to competition among major powers.Overall,Sisi's diplomatic strategy towards the United States has been relatively successful during his tenure,although there have been continuous frictions.The demand for security cooperation between the two sides far outweighs the frictions and contradictions.In the future,Egypt's diplomatic strategy towards the United States will continue to adjust,steadily building a"soft balancing"strategic model among major international powers and regional strong countries.
作者
高鑫
寿慧生
GAO Xin;SHOU Huisheng(International and Regional Studies,Beijing Language and Culture University;Research Fellow,Center for Turkish Studies,Beijing Language and Culture University)
出处
《阿拉伯世界研究》
2025年第4期132-155,160,共25页
Arab World Studies
作者简介
高鑫,北京语言大学国别和区域研究专业2023级博士研究生(北京100083);寿慧生,博士,北京语言大学土耳其研究中心研究员(北京100083)。
