摘要
面对暴雨预报模拟及潜在暴雨风险-效益评估体系不完善的双重挑战,应用雷达和智能技术开展暴雨-径流-洪水智能预报、暴雨风险-效益评估与调控具有重要意义。本文提出了“智能预报-分析评估-和谐调控”三位一体的系统决策思路,构建面向流域或区域的暴雨风险-效益评估与调控研究框架,主要包括:①智能预报。总结降雨、径流与洪水预报模拟的主要方法与智能模型,提出基于雷达和智能技术的降雨-径流-洪水一体化智能预报体系。②分析评估。提出暴雨风险-效益双层评估思路,系统梳理风险与效益的评估方法,耦合经济、社会、生态等多维视角,形成结合智能模型与和谐论方法的暴雨风险-效益评估体系。③和谐调控。提出以和谐调控理论为基础的暴雨风险-效益联合调控思路,构建面向暴雨风险-效益联合优化的和谐调控模型。该框架以基于雷达的降雨-径流-洪水一体化智能预报为驱动,融合智能技术与和谐论方法,系统评估潜在暴雨风险-效益,进而开展面向暴雨风险-效益的和谐调控研究,可为流域或区域暴雨灾害管理提供系统解决方案与研究范式。
Addressing the dual challenges of inadequate simulation for torrential rainfall forecasting and incomplete risk-benefit assessment system,it is of great significance to carry out intelligent forecasting,risk-benefit evaluation and regulation based on radar and intelligent technology.This paper proposes a systematic decision-making idea of“intelligent forecasting-analytical assessment-harmony regulation”,and constructs a research framework for storm risk-benefit assessment and regulation of in river basins or regions.The framework consists of three main components:①Intelligent forecasting:The main methods and intelligent models of rainfall,runoff and flood forecasting simulation are summarized,and the integrated intelligent forecasting system of rainfall-off-flood based on radar and intelligent technology is proposed.②Analytical assessment:The risk-benefit two-layer evaluation idea is proposed,and the evaluation methods of risk and benefit are systematically sorted out,coupled economic,social,ecological and other multi-dimensional perspectives,forming a risk-benefit assessment system combining intelligent models and harmony theory methods.③Harmony regulation:This component proposes a joint risk-benefit regulation strategy based on harmonious regulation theory,by developing a harmonious regulation model aimed at optimizing the balance between the risks and benefits of torrential rainfall.Driven by the integrated intelligent prediction of rainfall-runoff-flood based on radar,this framework integrates intelligent technology and the method of harmony theory to systematically evaluate the potential risks and benefits associated with torrential rainfall events,conducting research on harmonious regulation based on the risk-benefit of torrential rain can provide systematic solutions and research paradigms for the management of torrent rain disasters in basins or regions.
作者
左其亭
李英睿
ZUO Qiting;LI Yingrui(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Engineering Research Center of Smart Water Conservancy,Zhengzhou 450003,China)
出处
《水资源保护》
2025年第5期22-32,共11页
Water Resources Protection
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3211301)
黄河水利科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金项目(HKY-JBYW-2024-10)。
关键词
雷达
智能技术
暴雨风险-效益
分析评估
和谐调控
radar
intelligent technology
rainstorm risk-benefit
analytical assessment
harmony regulation
作者简介
左其亭(1967-),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:zuoqt@zzu.edu.cn;通信作者:李英睿(1995-),女,工程师,博士研究生,主要从事水利信息化研究。E-mail:liyingruii@163.com。
