摘要
构建双循环新发展格局是经济高质量发展的关键抓手,科技创新在其中起重要作用。从国内、国际两个层面评价科技创新能力,深入阐述双循环协调发展的内涵,并构建国内、国际循环指标体系。基于耦合协调度模型测度双循环协调发展水平,就科技创新对双循环协调发展的影响及其空间溢出效应进行了实证检验。研究发现:我国双循环协调发展水平呈现增长态势,但协调水平普遍较低,仅有北京达到了良好协调标准。不同地区耦合协调度增长曲线的转折点具有很强的同步性,这表明双循环协调发展受宏观因素影响。北京等11个省份国际循环相对滞后,浙江、广东和山东的国际循环发展水平突出。此外,科技创新对双循环协调发展的直接效应和间接效应均为正,且间接效应大于直接效应。不同权重矩阵下空间溢出效应的显著性略有差异,更换核心变量度量方式以及内生性检验后结果依然稳健。沿海和沿边、黄河流域地区的影响效应展现出显著的区域差异。文章系统地测度了省域层面科技创新和双循环协调发展水平,论证了科技创新对双循环协调发展的影响并提出了相关建议,为新质生产力培育下制定科技创新政策、补齐循环短板,以及高效推进双循环战略提供了参考依据。
Constructing a new dual circulation development pattern is fundamental to achieving highquality economic growth,with technological innovation serving as a critical catalyst.This study evaluates technological innovation capabilities across regional and global dimensions,delineates the connotation of coordinated development of the dual circulation,and constructs corresponding indicator systems for the dual circulation.Utilizing a coupling coordination degree model,the level of dual circulation coordination is quantified.Subsequently,empirical analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of technological innovation on this coordination and its spatial spillover effects.Findings reveal that while China’s dual circulation coordination exhibits an upward trajectory,coordination levels remain generally low;only Beijing achieves the“good coordination”benchmark.The pronounced synchronicity in growth curve inflection points across regions suggests a dominant influence of macro-level determinants.International circulation development lags in 11 provinces,including Beijing,whereas Zhejiang,Guangdong,and Shandong demonstrate notably advanced performance.Furthermore,technological innovation exerts significantly positive direct and indirect(spillover)effects on dual circulation coordination,with the magnitude of spillover effects exceeding direct impacts.The statistical significance of these spatial spillovers varies modestly under alternative spatial weight matrices.Robustness checks,including alternative core variable measurements and endogeneity tests,consistently validate these findings.Substantial regional heterogeneity is observed,with coastal,borderland,and Yellow River Basin regions exhibiting distinct impact patterns.This study provides a systematic provincial-level assessment of technological innovation and dual circulation coordination,empirically establishes the impact of technological innovation on coordinated development,and offers actionable recommendations.It serves as a valuable reference for formulating science and technology policies aimed at cultivating new quality productive forces,addressing structural imbalances within the circulation,and effectively advancing the dual circulation strategy.
作者
赵明亮
Zhao Mingliang(School of International Economics and Trade,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan Shandong,250002)
出处
《山东师范大学学报(社会科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第4期93-106,共14页
Journal of Shandong Normal University(Social Sciences)
基金
山东省自然科学基金面上项目“经济制裁对国内高端制造业价值链冲击风险评估及韧性提升路径研究”(ZR2024M1GD35)
山东省高等学校“青创科技支持计划”“‘一带一路’倡议下新旧动能转换路径研究”(2021RW019)的阶段性成果。
关键词
科技创新
双循环耦合协调度
空间溢出效应
technological innovation
dual circulation coupling coordination degree
spatial spillover effects
作者简介
赵明亮(1985-),男,山东昌乐人,山东财经大学国际经贸学院教授,博士,博士生导师。
