人工智能的就业效应——基于双重机器学习的因果推断被引量：7

Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence:Causal Inference Based on Double Machine Learning

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摘要在当前“稳就业”这一重大现实需求下,人工智能技术的广泛应用不可避免地对劳动力市场产生冲击,如何有效应对这一挑战已成为我国高质量发展进程中亟须解决的核心议题。基于此,文章将国家人工智能创新应用先导区的设立视为准自然实验,利用2000—2023年上市公司数据,采用双重机器学习模型(DML)系统评估国家人工智能创新应用先导区设立对就业增长的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明:第一,国家人工智能创新应用先导区的设立显著促进了企业就业增长,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;第二,机制分析发现,国家人工智能创新应用先导区的设立主要通过就业岗位创造效应、生产规模扩大效应以及融资约束缓解效应等内在路径推动企业就业增长;第三,异质性分析进一步揭示,先导区设立的就业促进效应在行业集中度较低、要素集中度较低、环境不确定性较弱以及营商环境较优的地区尤为显著;第四,拓展性分析表明,先导区设立不仅有助于提升就业规模,还能够优化就业结构,有利于促进社会稳定、推动高质量发展、增强国家竞争力。同时,基于机器学习方法的分析表明,政策的最优执行规则与实际执行情况仍存在一定差距,这意味着该政策在促进就业方面仍具备较大的优化空间。 Under the current major practical demand ofstable employment the extensive application of AI technology inevitably impacts the labor market and how to effectively respond to this challenge has become a core issue that needs to be resolved in the process of Chinas high-quality development.Based on this this paper regards the establishment of the National Pilot Zone of Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Application as a quasi-natural experiment and utilizes the data of listed companies from 2000 to 2023 to systematically evaluate the impact of the establishment of the National Pilot Zone of Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Application on the growth of employment and its mechanism of action by using the Double Machine Learning Model DML system.The results of the study show that first the establishment of national pilot zones for AI innovation and application significantly promotes enterprise employment growth and this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests second the mechanism analysis reveals that the establishment of national pilot zones for AI innovation and application mainly promotes enterprise employment growth through the intrinsic paths of the job creation effect the production scale expansion effect and the financing constraint alleviation effect third the heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the employment promotion effect of the establishment of pilot zones is particularly significant in regions with lower industry concentration lower factor concentration weaker environmental uncertainty and better business environment fourth the expansive analysis shows that the establishment of pilot zones not only helps to increase the number of jobs but also optimizes the employment structure which is conducive to promoting social stability promoting high-quality development and enhancing national competitiveness.Meanwhile the analysis based on the machine learning method shows that there is still a gap between the optimal implementation rules of the policy and the actual implementation situation implying that there is still much room for optimization of the policy in promoting employment.

作者王晓丹周十同石玉堂 WANG Xiaodan;ZHOU Shitong;SHI Yutang(Business School,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130117,China)

机构地区东北师范大学经济与管理学院

出处《商业经济与管理》北大核心 2025年第7期32-49,共18页 Journal of Business Economics

基金国家社会科学基金一般项目“乡村振兴背景下城乡收入差距的空间异质性研究”(20BJL146) 吉林省社会科学基金重大项目“吉林省构建特色现代化产业体系路径研究”(2025SZ3) 吉林省教育厅科学研究项目“数实融合推动劳动力就业的影响机制与优化路径研究”(JJKH20250242BS)。

关键词人工智能就业增长国家人工智能创新应用先导区双重机器学习就业结构 artificial intelligence employment growth national AI innovation and application pilot zone double machine learning employment structure

分类号 F249.2 [经济管理—劳动经济]

作者简介王晓丹,女,教授,博士生导师,经济学博士,主要从事劳动经济学研究;通讯作者:周十同,男,博士研究生,主要从事劳动经济学研究;石玉堂,男,博士研究生,主要从事劳动经济学研究。