摘要
应对气候变化、实现“双碳”目标是一场广泛而深刻的变革,气候政策在其中发挥着至关重要的作用,但在制定和执行气候政策过程中,如不注重政策间的取向一致性,可能造成风险,抑制实体经济发展。基于A股上市公司数据,本文实证检验了气候政策不确定性对实体企业金融资产配置的影响,发现企业面临的气候政策不确定性每上升一个标准差,金融资产配置水平将上升6.66%个标准差。机制检验表明,气候政策不确定性同时增加了传统实体资产风险与绿色实体资产风险,从而促使企业调整其资产结构。异质性分析显示,气候政策不确定性的影响与气候物理风险的影响可以相互叠加,且在风险治理较差、外部引导较弱的企业样本中更为显著。经济后果检验发现,气候政策不确定性所诱发的金融资产配置策略并不利于企业的绿色转型和高质量发展。这些结果表明,应充分关注气候政策间的取向一致性,以降低政策不确定性。
Climate change is deeply affecting the global real economy.As a responsible major country,China attaches great importance to climate issues,not only elevating the achievement of the"dual carbon"goals and actively responding to climate change to the national strategic level,but also directly implementing a series of climate policies and achieving positive results.However,it is important to note that firms often cannot accurately predict whether,when,or to what extent govermment agencies will adjust climate policies.Therefore,climate policy carries a high degree of uncertainty.From an economic perspective,the macro-level climate policy uncertainty index has been rising sharply in recent years,suggesting that existing research on this issue remains limited.This paper examines the impact of climate policy uncertainty on the real economy by focusing on corporate financial asset allocation.The results show that a one standard deviation increase in climate policy uncertainty leads to a 6.66% standard deviation increase in the level of financial asset allocation.Mechanism analysis reveals that climate policy uncertainty increases the risks of both traditional physical assets and green physical assets,which drives firms to adjust their asset structures.Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that the effects of climate policy uncertainty are compounded by physical climate risks,especially in firms with weaker risk governance and limited external guidance.The economic consequences test demonstrates that the shift toward financial asset allocation caused by climate policy uncertainty is not conducive to firms'green transformation and high-quality development.The marginal contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:First,this study finds that,similar to physical climate risks,climate policy uncertainty can also reduce the return on real investments,leading firms to increase their financial asset allocation.The finding adds useful evidence to the growing literature on how climate risks affect the real economy.Second,as China moves into a key stage of green and low-carbon transition,the influence of climate policy on the economy has become more important.This paper adds to the literature on policy uncertainty and corporate investment by focusing on the specific uncertainty related to climate policy,rather than using general economic policy uncertainty indicators.Finally,this paper clarifies the inherent mechanism of climate policy uncertainty leading to corporate financial asset allocation,that is,climate policies with high uncertainty are not only not conducive to the green transformation of corporate physical assets,but also increase the risk of traditional physical assets.This paper provides the following policy implications.First,for climate policymakers,it is important to consider not only the strictness or flexibility of individual climate policies but also the consistency and coordination among newly introduced and existing policies.Improving policy coherence can help reduce uncertainty and ease the investment challenges faced by firms in the real economy.Second,it is essential to recognize the diverse and systemic nature of climate risks,as well as the interconnections among different types of specific climate risks.Policymakers should make full use of the guiding role of long-term institutional investors and government-led environmental policies to build a multi-level governance framework that involves government,markets,and enterprises.Finally,for firms,it is necessary to adopt a long-term perspective,continuously strengthen their resilience to climate risks,and build a solid foundation for a low-carbon transition.This can help reduce short-term speculative behavior,such as excessive reliance on financial asset allocation,and support more sustainable business strategies.
作者
周泽将
汪顺
董丰
ZHOU Zejiang;WANG Shun;DONG Feng(School of Business,Anhui University;School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University)
出处
《金融研究》
北大核心
2025年第4期95-113,共19页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72250064、72122011与72172001)的资助。
作者简介
周泽将,管理学博士,教授,安徽大学商学院,E-mail:ahuzzj@126.com;汪顺,管理学博士,副教授,安徽大学商学院,E-mail:ahuacc_ws@163.com;通讯作者:董丰,经济学博士,副教授,清华大学经济管理学院,E-mail:dongfeng@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn.
