摘要
基于涌现理论分析框架,采用CRITIC法、耦合协调度模型、空间自回归模型、时空地理加权回归模型,对2012-2021年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)体育产业与文化产业、旅游产业融合发展水平、动态演化特征及驱动因素进行研究。研究发现:(1)从时间维度看,3大产业综合发展水平整体呈上升态势,各产业发展阶段可分为增长期、削弱期与回升期。(2)体文旅产业融合发展水平总体表现为递升态势,经历了“平缓发展-加速前进-洪峰回落”3个阶段;从空间维度看,体文旅融合发展水平呈现出“西弱东强、南高北低”的空间分布,在东部和西部地区呈现出“高-高”和“低-低”的空间集聚格局,在西南地区出现“高-低”异常集聚区。(3)从驱动因素的空间关联作用来看,社会消费潜力、资本投入水平、地区人口密度、对外开放水平对本省融合发展水平具有促进作用,但对邻省存在负向的空间溢出效应;教育支出水平和科技创新水平对本省产生轻微抑制作用,对邻省则产生正向空间溢出效应。(4)从驱动因素的时空异质性作用来看,6大驱动因素对体文旅产业融合发展水平的影响,在作用程度和方向上均存在时空差异。据此提出建议:发挥体育产业核心优势,扩大融合规模效应;制定差异发展策略,形成区域联动机制;创新要素配置体系,激活梯度补偿效应。
This study employs an emergence theory framework to investigate the convergence development patterns of sportscultural-tourism industries across 31 provincial-level administrative units(2012-2021),utilizing CRITIC method,coupling coordination model,spatial autoregressive model,and geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model.Key findings reveal:(1)Temporal analysis shows progressive enhancement of tri-sector development through three distinct phases-growth,adjustment,and recovery periods,with convergence levels evolving from stable progression to accelerated growth followed by strategic optimization.(2)Spatial patterns demonstrate“east-west disparity and south-north differentiation”,featuring high-high clustering in developed eastern regions and low-low agglomerations in western areas,with atypical high-low clusters in southwestern China.(3)Spatial econometric analysis identifies dual-effect drivers:domestic consumption potential,capital investment,population density,and openness exhibit positive local impacts but negative spillover effects on neighboring regions,while education expenditure and technological innovation demonstrate reverse spatial interactions.(4)GTWR results reveal significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in driving mechanisms,with all six factors showing temporal fluctuations and spatial variability in effect intensity and directionality.The study proposes policy recommendations including:leveraging core industrial advantages for scale effects;constructing digital collaboration networks for regional synergy;innovating factor allocation mechanisms for gradient compensation effects.
作者
张宇飞
郑瑞涵
王子朴
ZHANG Yufei;ZHENG Ruihan;WANG Zipu(Sports Economy Research Center,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,Liaoning,China;School of Business Administration,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,Liaoning,China;School of Statistics,Southwest University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 610074,China;School of Management and Communication,Capital University of Physical Education and Sports,Beijing 100191,China)
出处
《西安体育学院学报》
北大核心
2025年第3期308-326,361,共20页
Journal of Xi'an Physical Education University
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(23ATY004)。
关键词
体文旅
产业融合
涌现理论
区域演化特征
驱动因素
sports,culture and tourism industries
industrial integration
emergence theory
regional evolution characteristics
driving factors
作者简介
第一作者:张宇飞(1980-),男,辽宁锦州人,副教授,博士生,研究方向为体育旅游。E-mail:zhangyufei@dufe.edu.cn;通信作者:王子朴(1969-),男,河南汝州人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为体育人文社会学。E-mail:wangzipu@cupes.edu.cn。
