摘要
用水演变态势事关经济社会发展、生态文明建设大局,直接影响重大水利工程总体格局。自2013年我国用水统计达到峰值以来,用水需求增长的动力是否存在、未来用水发展态势如何演变等问题,逐渐成为争论的焦点,迫切需要系统回答。通过梳理总结近年研究成果,围绕用水需求是否达峰、如何演变、峰值何时到来等重大问题,集中梳理十点认识思考。研究认为:用水不同于需水,现阶段实际用水受供给侧约束等多重因素影响,表现出零增长特征;但随着消费结构升级、城镇化推进、国际贸易不稳定性加剧等形势变化,我国用水需求仍存在增长空间,通过持续强化节水、国家水网工程建设等手段提升供水保障能力十分必要。在考虑最严格水资源管理制度、经济发展需求和既有工程规划体系条件下,预测我国用水需求峰值约为6400亿~6500亿m^(3),峰值大概率在2035—2040年到来,仍有10年增长期。
The evolution of water use trends is closely related to the overall landscape of economic and social development and ecological civilization construction,directly impacting the overarching pattern of major water resources projects.Since China’s water consumption statistics peaked in 2013,debates have emerged regarding the existence of driving forces behind water demand growth and the future trajectory of water use,necessitating systematic responses.By summarizing recent research findings,this study presents ten understandings and reflections on critical issues such as whether water demand has peaked,how it will evolve,and when the peak will occur.The study suggests that water use differs from water demand;current actual water consumption is influenced by multiple factors,including supply-side constraints,exhibiting characteristics of zero growth.However,with changes in consumption structure upgrades,urbanization advancement,and increasing instability in international trade,China’s water demand still has room for growth.It is essential to enhance water supply security through measures such as continuously promoting water conservation and constructing national water network projects.Considering the most stringent water resource management system,economic development needs,and existing project planning system,it is predicted that China’s water demand peak will be approximately 640 billion to 650 billion cubic meters,with the extreme point likely to occur between 2035 and 2040,indicating a growth period of about ten years.
作者
赵勇
何国华
王建华
何凡
李雯晴
ZHAO Yong;HE Guohua;WANG Jianhua;HE Fan;LI Wenqing
出处
《中国水利》
2025年第9期1-13,共13页
China Water Resources
基金
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3200204)
国家自然科学基金(52025093、52109042、52394230)。
关键词
用水规律
用水达峰
用水需求
供给侧
water use pattern
water use peak
water demand
supply side
作者简介
赵勇,水资源所所长,正高级工程师,主要从事水循环演变、水资源高效利用与国家水网研究。E-mail:zhaoyong@iwhr.com。
