摘要
电力作为资金密集型行业,其投资对经济社会发展有着重要的促进作用。本文在总结2011-2022年中国电力投资发展演变基础上,从投资规模和结构两个维度系统分析了中国电力投资的主要特征,采用Tapio脱钩指数分析我国电力投资与经济增长之间的关系,并基于对数平均迪氏分解模型对我国电力投资的变动进行了因素分解。研究发现,我国电力投资呈波动扩张态势,其在某些年份出现短暂性回落但并没有影响经济持续向上的走势;弱脱钩是中国电力投资和经济增长之间的主流状态;我国电力投资结构经历了“电源为主—电网为主—协调发展”三个阶段;我国电力投资的扩张主要由人均电力消费、电力生产率、人口规模三个因素主导,且人均电力消费的贡献效应在大多数年份均最大,而我国电力投资出现的阶段性衰减主要受电力投资强度下降影响。鉴于此,电力投资要与电力工业高质量发展的需求相适应,并注重电力投资结构优化和电力生产率提高。
As a capital-intensive industry,power investment plays a significant role in promoting economic and social development.This paper systematically analyzes the main characteristics of China's power investment from the perspectives of investment scale and structure,based on the evolution of power investment in China from 2011 to 2022.The Tapio decoupling index is used to examine the relationship between power investment and economic growth,and the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)model is employed to decompose the factors driving changes in power investment.The study finds that China's power investment has shown a fluctuating expansion trend,with temporary declines in certain years that did not hinder the overall upward trajectory of the economy.Weak decoupling is the dominant state between power investment and economic growth.The structure of power investment has evolved through three stages:“generation-focused,grid-focused,and coordinated development.”The expansion of power investment is primarily driven by three factors:per capita electricity consumption,electricity productivity,and population size,with per capita electricity consumption contributing the most in most years.The periodic decline in power investment is mainly influenced by the decrease in power investment intensity.Therefore,power investment should align with the demands of high-quality development in the power industry,with a focus on optimizing investment structure and improving electricity productivity.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2024年第8期46-52,共7页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国网四川省电力公司经济技术研究院资助项目(SGSCJY00JJJS2310056)。
关键词
电力投资
驱动因素
电力生产率
脱钩
power investment
driving factors
electricity productivity
decoupling
作者简介
张玉鸿(1970-),男,汉族,四川成都人,国网四川经研院高级工程师。主要研究方向:电网工程管理及技术经济;周飞(1987-),男,汉族,国网四川经研院高级经济师。主要研究方向:工程造价管理、工程技术经济;光峰涛(1992-),男,汉族,山西运城人,华北电力大学博士,中国地质大学(武汉)副教授。研究方向:电力技术经济及管理;通讯作者:光峰涛。
