摘要
目的通过合理配置卫生资源,能够让公众获得基本的医疗卫生服务,能更好地体现卫生资源公平性。依据天津市1997—2021年卫生人力资源数量,预测未来几年卫生人员的数量,为天津市培养、引进高素质卫生人才提供政策依据。方法通过公开资料获取1997—2021年天津市卫生健康机构全体卫生人员、执业(助理)医师数、注册护士数、药师(士)和技师(士)数,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型、自回归滑动平均混合模型(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)、指数平滑模型进行拟合数据,通过误差绝对值和平均误差值对不同模型进行优劣比较,选取最优模型预测2022—2026年天津市卫生人力资源数量。结果使用指数平滑模型优于灰色GM(1,1)模型和ARIMA模型,更适用于人力资源预测。2025年预设目标为执业(助理)医师为52500名,注册护士为60000名。与预测结果比较,医生人数将超过预期目标,护士人数会略有差距。预计2026年天津市基本完成预测目标。结论政府部门、医学院校和全社会共同努力完善医学人才政策,提升医院对人才的吸引力,才能大规模培养和引进卫生人才,促进天津市卫生事业高质量发展。
Objective Through rational allocation of health resources,the public can get basic medical and health services,and the equity of health resources can be better reflected.Based on the number of health human resources in Tianjin from 1997 to 2021,the number of health personnel in the next few years is predicted to provide policy basis for Tianjin to train and introduce high-quality health talents.Methods The number of all health personnel,practicing(practicing assistant)physicians,registered nurses,licensed(licensed assistants)pharmacists and medical technologists(medical technicians)in Tianjin health institutions from 1997 to 2021 were obtained from public sources.The grey GM(1,1)model,autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model and exponential smoothing model were used to fit the data.The absolute and average error values were used to compare the advantages and disadvantages of different models,and the optimal model was selected to predict the number of health human resources in Tianjin from 2022 to 2026.Results The exponential smoothing model was superior to the grey GM(1,1)model and the ARIMA prediction model,and was more suitable for human resource prediction.The preset target for 2025 was 52500 practicing(practicing assistant)physicians and 60000 registered nurses.Compared with the forecast results,the number of physicians would exceed the expected target,while the number of nurses would be slightly short.It was expected that Tianjin would basically complete the forecast target in 2026.Conclusion Government departments,medical colleges and the whole society should work together to improve the policy for medical talents and enhance the attractiveness of hospitals to talents,so as to cultivate and introduce health talents on a large scale,and promote the high-quality development of health undertakings in Tianjin.
作者
赵明辉
孙宁
刘洁
ZHAO Minghui;SUN Ning;LIU Jie(Department of Cadre Health,Tianjin Medical University General Hospital,Tianjin 300052,China;Smart Medical Information Analysis Center,Tianjin Medical University General Hospital,Tianjin 300052,China)
出处
《中国卫生标准管理》
2024年第23期62-66,共5页
China Health Standard Management
基金
天津医科大学2024年度医院管理创新研究项目(2024YG06)。
