摘要
近年来全球气候灾害事件的频繁发生一定程度上影响到了社会经济的正常运转。海外东道国的气候风险已然成为影响中国企业OFDI区位选择的重要因素。本文通过在局部均衡模型中纳入气候风险因素,预测东道国气候风险对中国企业在该国直接投资行为的影响。同时,通过匹配2010-2022年期间中国上市企业对外直接投资数据与各国气候风险数据构建动态面板并进行实证检验,估计结果表明:东道国气候风险对中国OFDI产生了显著的负面影响。这一现象在高收入国家、能源行业企业和气候风险比中国更大的样本中更加显著。从时间效应上看,气候风险对中国企业OFDI的负面影响将持续两至三年。此外,在五种典型气候灾害中,干旱和极端气温的负面影响最为突出。研究表明应进一步强化通过全球气候谈判,深化国际合作,共同构建公平合理、合作共赢的全球气候治理体系,从而完善气候风险监管和预防机制并增强气候韧性。本文为防控气候风险保障投资安全提供了有益的参考依据。
In recent years,the frequent occurrence of global climate disaster events has posed unprecedented challenges to the sustainable development of human society.The host country's climate risk has gradually become an important factor influencing the location of foreign investment.Every extreme weather event increases perceived risks of climate change,including both physical risks due to the destructive effects of such events and transition risks arising from increased awareness of these risks and political will to mitigate them.Do multinational enterprises take physical risks into account when making foreign investment decisions?How will firms react to the transition risks arising from the tightening of relevant policies in the climate governance process?This paper aims to analyze the impact of climate risk in host countries on Chinese firms'OFDI.This will help clarify the heterogeneous impact of climate risks on investment decisions,provide empirical evidence for Chinese enterprises to formulate investment strategies,enhance investment efficiency,and realize efficient and rational allocation of resources,which is of great practical significance for enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in the global economic landscape.To explore these issues,this paper first reviews previous studies on climate risk and OFDI.While previous studies are mainly at the country,city,and industry levels,this paper focuses on the micro subject of enterprises,which better reflect the investment decision-making behavior of enterprises and improve the accuracy and application value of the em-pirical evidence compared to the macro data.Then,this paper builds a partial equilibrium model describing how physical and transition risks in host countries affect Chinese firms'OFDI,drawing on the idea of Helpman et al.Meanwhile,this paper constructs and empirically tests a dynamic panel by matching the OFDI data of China's listed enterprises with the climate risk data of each country for the period 2010-2022.The results are as follows.Firstly,host countries'climate risks have a significant negative impact on Chinese firms'OFDI.Secondly,the deepening climate risks in host countries affect Chinese firms'local direct investment through two main channels:the management costs and the unit cost of emissions.The inhibiting effect is more significant in the sample of high-income countries,firms in the energy sector,and firms with greater climate risks than those in China.In terms of the time effect,the negative impact of climate risks on Chinese firms'OFDI will last for 2-3 years.In addition,among the five typical climate hazards,the negative impacts of drought and extreme temperatures are the most prominent.The above conclusions remain valid after robustness tests,including adjusting fixed effects,replacing the core explanatory variables,and excluding the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic.Additionally,considering the potential endogeneity problems in the model,this paper uses Heckman two-step method,identification at infinity,and local difference-indifferences(DID)to test the results,finding that the results are consistent with those of the benchmark regression.The paper concludes that countries and international organizations should further deepen international cooperation,strengthen global climate negotiations,and jointly build a fair and reasonable global climate governance system with winwin cooperation.Enterprises should strengthen climate risk management,improve climate risk supervision and prevention mechanisms,and enhance climate resilience.They should strengthen technology R&D,improve the output per unit of emissions in the production process,and reduce emissions costs.Additionally,in the process of globalization,Chinese multinational enterprises should improve the risk assessment mechanism of overseas investment,analyze and compare climate risks and local comparative advantages,and strive to find the best balance between risks and benefits.It is hoped that this paper can provide a useful reference for the scientific understanding of the impact of the host country's climate risks on Chinese enterprises'outward FDI,improving the safety and rationality of OFDI decisions.
作者
肖挺
郭娜
龙晓柏
XIAO Ting;GUO Na;LONG Xiaobai(Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang,China;Jiangxi Academy of Social Sciences,Nanchang,China)
出处
《经济学动态》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第11期56-74,共19页
Economic Perspectives
基金
国家自然科学基金地区项目“制造企业业务维度对服务化收益影响机制研究:基于与服务供应商合作关系的视角”(72262015)
江西省社会科学基金重点项目“中国式现代化视域下中部制造业高质量发展研究”(23YJ04)
江西省教育厅科技项目“融合多源文本大数据的股票市场投资者情绪度量研究”(GJJ210520)。
作者简介
肖挺,江西财经大学国际经济与政治学院,邮政编码:330013,电子邮箱:ncu_xiao163.com;郭娜,江西财经大学国际经济与政治学院,邮政编码:330013,电子邮箱:jxufe_guona@163.com;通讯作者:龙晓柏,江西省社会科学院经济研究所,邮政编码:330077,电子邮箱:longbai0062@163.com。
